Don't Worry Republicans...We are Ahead in the Polls..It's Just Left Wing Bias

[Mistermj]

The Biased Left Wing Media has unwittingly fired up the Republican base...and the Dems have let their guard down because they think they have a landslide...ITS NOT TRUE. MCCain is going to win.

If the all the polls were properly weighted...they would show McCain is in the lead. Don't believe the hype...enjoy the Dems shock and awe on
Nov 4

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These Polls Make No Sense

By Dirty Harry on General

In 2004 the Republican/Democrat turnout was even. In 2006 it was Democrats plus 3. But if you look at the weighting in these national polls they're wildly tilted towards Democrats:

Newsweek has Obama up by 11 but their Democrat weighting is plus 13!

Gallup has Obama up by nine, but within the subgroups polled McCain's standing hasn't changed. The only conclusion then is that the weighting has.

Time has Obama up by 6% but overpolls Democrats by 11% (see page 26)

Rasmussen has Obama up by 7% and overpolls Democrats by 6%.

Zogby has Obama up 4% but doesn't report their weighting.

Furthermore, certain states like Ohio and Missouri are considered reflections of the nation, often mirroring the national vote, but both are within the margin of error.

Yesterday, assuming there's a rational explanation for this, I emailed someone who reports fairly regularly on this stuff to ask What the hell? But the only asnwer he gets from pollsters is that they expect Democrats to crush this year in turnout.

Were being asked by the liberal media to rollover and accept the coming Obama landslide. Believe me, I would be more than happy to do so, if only because it frees me to go on with my life, but the numbers have to make sense — have to pass a smell test — and these do not.

As we've seen in recent McCain rallies the frustration among we bitter clingers are feeling towards media bias is palpable. That reflects passion … and turnout. The media's trying to twist that passion into something ugly but it was Obama who told us to get in people's faces, right? The energy on the right is rising and until these pollsters adjust their weighting to reflect reality, as much as I would like to, I can't completely give up. http://dirtyharrysplace.com/?p=4960

 

[Risk44]

Denial.

Thats a lot of buts.

Lol.

 

[Willie99]

Well, I believe the race is probably a lot closer than most think, but I believe Obama is still winning.

There may be a race factor that actually works for the Republicans this time, netting out the race factor that is always there for the Democrats. That, and given the fact that Dems do seem to poll better, I think it's plausible McCain can overcome a 3 - 5 point deficit on election day. I doubt he can overcome 7+ point deficits.

A lot of the toss-up states are within the margin of error, or very close to it. Problem is the stock market is heading in the wrong direction for the representative of the Party sitting in the White House.

Voters tend to give the POTUS credit and blame, and recent polling data once again bears this out.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Good for you MJ.

 

[The Vegas Snake]

Who Cares, Dont You People Realize We Dont Have A Country Anymore>? And All This Politcal Shit Is Meant To Divide Us, Get Your Fuckin Head Outta Your Asses!!!! Might Not Even Be A Fucking Election, Bush Is A Dictator


We Need Smart Minds Like Yours To Be Focusing On The Real Issues, The Issue Being Freedom.


Wake Up

 

[RobFunk]

LOL, "see page 26!"

 

[Sekrah]

Well, I believe the race is probably a lot closer than most think, but I believe Obama is still winning.

I do agree.. Adjusting most of the polls for their samples, Obama is ahead by about 4.

Democrats have never had more than a 4% ballot id advantage (and 2004 it was 39-39) yet most of these polls are giving Dems +12%.

I still expect an October Surprise in the form of an indictment of Obama courtesy of Tony Rezko singing with the Clintons pulling the strings.

 

[across777]

Here is a list of all of the national polls out:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...neral_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

If you really think that ALL of these polls have a left leaning bias, then good for you...but you're very wrong. If you think reputable pollsters like Zogby and Rassmussen are suddenly dead wrong, after years of being mostly right, then have fun in fantasy land.

 

[Sekrah]

Here is a list of all of the national polls out:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...neral_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

If you really think that ALL of these polls have a left leaning bias, then good for you...but you're very wrong. If you think reputable pollsters like Zogby and Rassmussen are suddenly dead wrong, after years of being mostly right, then have fun in fantasy land.

Want to make a wager? Rasmussen has Party ID at Democrat +6.3%. I'll take the under. We'll use VNS Exit Poll Data.

You cannot be possible aware at the horrendous disadvantage you are at in this wager. If Vegas were making the line. It would be ATLEAST "Under 6.3% -2500"


Most of these polls have weightings way worse than Rasmussen.

 

[JudgeWapner]

I'll take over 3.5% even odds if anybody wants some.

 

[Sekrah]

I'll take over 3.5% even odds if anybody wants some.

I'd give them a range up to 4, but again we heard about this same brilliant Democrat voter registration drive in 2004 and the voters were dead even at 37.

We heard "massive turnout this year, which is horrible for Republicans" over and over again on Election day in the weeks leading up to the election and on election day.. then thud.

 

[JudgeWapner]

I know very little about politics, but from a betting standpoint, I'd put the over under at around 4% also.

 

[Sekrah]

I know very little about politics, but from a betting standpoint, I'd put the over under at around 4% also.

It hasn't been greater than 4%.. ever..

Even Clinton vs Bush, Clinton vs Dole. On high turnout elections (which this appears to be), it's always tighter for Republicans, contrary to public myth.

 

[barman]

Don't waste your cyber breath, Judge.

"Mr MJ" (joe c jr) won't put even $50 of his real life money on McCain and I can't say as I blame him.

It would likely be a foolish investment and it would also force him to expose his true identity when he collects and/or pays his bet.

 

[D2bets]

4% is a lot of votes. Figure 3rd parties for 4-5% this time around. Winner almost never gets over 50%. I would project around 49-46 Obama this time around. But it translates to a huge electoral landslide. Obama between 330-350.

 

[skinnylarry]

Wasnt John Kerry ahead in the polls ? Remember all the exit polling saying Kerry was the most likely winner ? Poll numbers are what they WANT them to be , NOT what they really are. It is just the media doing there jobs as cheerleaders for the democrat party !

 

[guitarjosh]

Wasnt John Kerry ahead in the polls ? Remember all the exit polling saying Kerry was the most likely winner ? Poll numbers are what they WANT them to be , NOT what they really are. It is just the media doing there jobs as cheerleaders for the democrat party !

Kerry was way up in the exit polls. Bush was up in the last polls in 2000. In 1996 the last polls had Clinton up by 16-17. He won by 8. Polling is little more then guessing.

 

[Mistermj]

Don't waste your cyber breath, Judge.

"Mr MJ" (joe c jr) won't put even $50 of his real life money on McCain and I can't say as I blame him.

It would likely be a foolish investment and it would also force him to expose his true identity when he collects and/or pays his bet.

I have an $1100 free roll with the jdog.

Why on earth would anyone take a chance on losing..when you have a free roll?

Daryl Parson is holding the money...and $300 will be donated to this forum if I win.

I think anyone with a brain can tell I'm not JoeC...but whatever floats your boat.

Joe C now has a kick ass handicapping computer...just to provide cover...LMAO. d1g1t

 

[fletchisrhsm]

If you think McCain beats this guy, your fucking either really red in the neck or have money on McShame. I mean fuck, i had the Ravens today, and there was a point where i thought about three consecutive pick 6's but reality set in about mid third Quarter, i suggest the same for you guys as well. Look on the brightside...whats the difference who gets elected??

:lol:

 

[Mistermj]

If you think McCain beats this guy, your fucking either really red in the neck or have money on McShame. I mean fuck, i had the Ravens today, and there was a point where i thought about three consecutive pick 6's but reality set in about mid third Quarter, i suggest the same for you guys as well. Look on the brightside...whats the difference who gets elected??

:lol:

Thats what you said about Gore and Kerry...we're still laughing at you until proven different.

You could at least come up with some new lines...:missingte

Will it be Diebold again?