All my plays are set, and I am ready to go.
While I cant release my plays till Saturday night (after contest deadline), But I can tell you which 3 biggest square plays of the week that I stayed away from.
I do add that square plays do well at the very beginning of the season, but when they lose, they lose big. So I decided to stay far away week #1, not going to take the chance.
ALL in order from most square, to least square:
NFLTrends Square play #1 -
New England Patriots!!! Tom Brady on the road, playing a team that didn't make the playoffs, and laying -3 to -4 against a QB who cant seem to beat Brady. Seems way to easy... BUT he did end up beating 24-20... Patriots supposed ramped up defense also makes this seem way to easy, super easy, money in the bank.... NO THANKS!! PASS FOR ME!! One of the hugest public betting teams, and I assume will be on around 90% of parlays and money line parlays. TOO SQUARE!!
NFLTrends Square play #2 -
Denver Broncos!!! Manning coming off of a Super Bowl embarrassment, and in a revenge spot vs the Colts after the homecoming game he lost. Laying anywhere from a -7 to -9 and it seems like an easy number to cover, at home, with one of the most explosive offenses from last season. Another HUGE public bet, everyone loves betting on Manning, and at home, and in opening week. Lets not forget that Luck has yet another year under his belt... But the public doesn't care... Another 90% or more of parlays will have this play on them, and on the money line. 4 Lines may seem like a party if you add some hookers... but lay those 4 lines and make a square... cause your on drugs if you take a chance on this huge square play!!! Too many points IMO for opening week against a team that got better, against a team embarrassed in the Super Bowl, and who seems to be in a mess missing their 2 top WR's...... PASS the spread sheet... Im picking another game!
NFLTrends Square play #3 -
The Detroit Lions!!! Seems like an easy win here for another team opening at home, AND on Monday Night Football!! Gun slinging QB with one of the best WR's in the game!! A defense that can get to the QB and cause problems!! And only giving up -7 or less??!! SUPER FUCKING EASY!!! LETS CASH THIS TICKET IN!! Giants Seem to be reeling after their last season, but turned it around towards the end. Lions ended the season 1-6 ATS, but last season doesn't matter... lets do like 90% or more of parlay plays are doing and take the action on the money line as well!! For fuck sakes, public is all over the OVER as well.. so lets sprinkle some sugar on that as well. PASS FOR ME... When games are this square I run!!!
Good luck everyone, these are just my opinions, and how I work when I handicap games, I try to stay away from as many square-public plays as often as possible. And even tho they are so tempting, you can find a gem in the midst of them. But I'm not falling for the trap so easily in week #1.
Good luck this weekend guys!!!
While I cant release my plays till Saturday night (after contest deadline), But I can tell you which 3 biggest square plays of the week that I stayed away from.
I do add that square plays do well at the very beginning of the season, but when they lose, they lose big. So I decided to stay far away week #1, not going to take the chance.
ALL in order from most square, to least square:
NFLTrends Square play #1 -
New England Patriots!!! Tom Brady on the road, playing a team that didn't make the playoffs, and laying -3 to -4 against a QB who cant seem to beat Brady. Seems way to easy... BUT he did end up beating 24-20... Patriots supposed ramped up defense also makes this seem way to easy, super easy, money in the bank.... NO THANKS!! PASS FOR ME!! One of the hugest public betting teams, and I assume will be on around 90% of parlays and money line parlays. TOO SQUARE!!
NFLTrends Square play #2 -
Denver Broncos!!! Manning coming off of a Super Bowl embarrassment, and in a revenge spot vs the Colts after the homecoming game he lost. Laying anywhere from a -7 to -9 and it seems like an easy number to cover, at home, with one of the most explosive offenses from last season. Another HUGE public bet, everyone loves betting on Manning, and at home, and in opening week. Lets not forget that Luck has yet another year under his belt... But the public doesn't care... Another 90% or more of parlays will have this play on them, and on the money line. 4 Lines may seem like a party if you add some hookers... but lay those 4 lines and make a square... cause your on drugs if you take a chance on this huge square play!!! Too many points IMO for opening week against a team that got better, against a team embarrassed in the Super Bowl, and who seems to be in a mess missing their 2 top WR's...... PASS the spread sheet... Im picking another game!
NFLTrends Square play #3 -
The Detroit Lions!!! Seems like an easy win here for another team opening at home, AND on Monday Night Football!! Gun slinging QB with one of the best WR's in the game!! A defense that can get to the QB and cause problems!! And only giving up -7 or less??!! SUPER FUCKING EASY!!! LETS CASH THIS TICKET IN!! Giants Seem to be reeling after their last season, but turned it around towards the end. Lions ended the season 1-6 ATS, but last season doesn't matter... lets do like 90% or more of parlay plays are doing and take the action on the money line as well!! For fuck sakes, public is all over the OVER as well.. so lets sprinkle some sugar on that as well. PASS FOR ME... When games are this square I run!!!
Good luck everyone, these are just my opinions, and how I work when I handicap games, I try to stay away from as many square-public plays as often as possible. And even tho they are so tempting, you can find a gem in the midst of them. But I'm not falling for the trap so easily in week #1.
Good luck this weekend guys!!!
