Dolphin report 3/30

[dolphin]

2 plays today

Hawks +10.5 medium

MIL-GS over 202.5 medium

gl

feedback always welcome

 

[OccamsRazor]

Always enjoyed your logic, but Atlanta? See no reason for backing Atlanta other than the money burning "they are due" Asking this horrible team to win you money is masochistic at best. But hey, its gambling it could happen. You'd have a better shot at taking Atl on the money line.

Rough probabilities: Atlanta wins when the number comes into play, 15% of the time it happens in the NBA.

Atlanta wins straight up (no points) about 32% of the time.

32%+15% =47%Overall winning dog % in the NBA... on average.

You get higher probability of an event occuring 32% on the money line vs 15% of the points mattering in your wager.

But no matter how you look at it you'd still be asking a horrible team to win you money. Not a wise path to follow it will only lead to ruin in the long run.

Good Luck

P.S. After having said all the above, the probability of Atlanta now covering is 100% :think: Its the gambling Gods way of dealing with us knowitalls.

 

[dolphin]

appreciate your comments, OR...

ATL falls into three categories of angles which have held up pretty well over 8+ years...admittedly they mainly depend on WAS being off more than ATL being "on", but nearly all big dog angles do

ATL has fought reasonably, all things considered, in 9 of last 11 games in which at least Childress - of the Childress/Harrington package - has played, excluding 1st game home off road trip. Despite two home burials at the hands of the Wiz, ATL showed up in WAS earlier this year, and Lue/Gugs rate to play a little harder than usual in this last chance to salvage a win v. WAS this season.

WAS will play 6 straight playoff types after this game and they are coming off a 5-game trip capped off by winning the last two of a 4/5 nights. They are a bit depleted and likely quite tired and surely will find it somewhat tough to psyche themselves up for the Hawks enough to cover a biggish price.

As for the $line, ATL is so short on endgame confidence, esp. on the road, that I feel fine just taking these points. All the same, you could well be right.

Dolphin

 

[dolphin]

additionally - for what this sort of thing is worth -

Wiz are 0-5 favored at home by 6+ pts. since January

 

[dolphin]

good luck, guys!

 

[BIGWave]

GREAT calls tonight Dolphin.......................CONGRATS!!!!!!!!!! arty:

 

[OccamsRazor]

P.S. After having said all the above, the probability of Atlanta now covering is 100% :think: Its the gambling Gods way of dealing with us knowitalls.

Never fails.

Great call

 

[dolphin]

thanks...

BTW, I checked...I've bet ON ATL, CHA and NOR a combined 12 times since Jan.1 out of at least 130 possibilities...resulting in a meaningless record of 6-4-2. Just to be clear that betting the trash is not really my thing and I realize the dangers.