Does the "Wrong side" ever become the right side???

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Let's use the New York/Cleve total as an example. The right side opened at 190 1/2. It got steamed until present, 197. Although viewed as a wrong side, is there any value with those 6 1/2 extra points? Does under 197 offer value, even though not the same as ov 190 1/2?

I am not sure there is a right answer...OF

 

[Rainbow]

Noway possible I will beat the guy that went over 190.5 in along run. I would love to book the person that bets under 197 expecially when the market is 197.
I am not worried about the guy thats betting under 197 I am worried about the guy that went over 190.5. you are not beating the line going under 197.

 

[Journeyman]

thats a great question i have often wonder about...there has to be someone with statistcial data on this...at some point 6 points or so, going opposite steam what would be the winning % I would love to know that answer...

 

[wilheim]

197 seemed to be the resistance number (I see a lot of 196.5 now) and was a great number for middlers who played over any number up to 194. As far as the right side goes the total was only the right side over IMO 190 thru say 194 tops, followers betting over 195 or 196 (and the halfs in between) were not getting any bargains.


wil.

 

[poopah]

once a total moves more than 3 points you have pretty much lost the edge. whoever bet it at 190.5 would most likely not bet it at 193.5 or certainly not bet it as large.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

197 seemed to be the resistance number (I see a lot of 196.5 now) and was a great number for middlers who played over any number up to 194. As far as the right side goes the total was only the right side over IMO 190 thru say 194 tops, followers betting over 195 or 196 (and the halfs in between) were not getting any bargains.


wil.

So the right side does get played out. Does the wrong side ever get played in? Are there people betting un 97 is the right side? If it went to 200, would under be the right side? I think my question is how far would a number, a total in this instance move before becoming a right side?

There must be a number where this happens. OF...

 

[Rainbow]

I just think the guy that bets me over 190.5 will bust me in along run. I dont think the guy that bets under 197 has no chance to bust me.

 

[BowlMeOne]

I think the actual proper # lies in between. Prolly around 195.5. So yes in fact the under would hold value. The # gets steamed by the sharps. Followers continue to poor action in. The book is quick to stay ahead of the game and push # to stop the action. But in my opinion most of the time the number moves to far..and yes there is value the other way.

 

[wilheim]

OF - Personally I would say that a right side getting bet into the wrong side is up to an individual handicapper especially those that make their own numbers for example if a capper made this Cav game 189 then under 197 would be a strong play for that particular capper steam or not.
Not counting middlers serious line movement at some point can become a play against the so called right side or steam because of the numbers involved. Especially true with key numbers in NFL football like 3 or 7 with sides, or 37 or 38 with totals. When steams moves a game past these numbers (rarely happens) buy back is automatic and has value.


wil.

 

[cincy_]

The book says that when the original probability is close to 50-50 - once an NBA total moves 4 points, the chances of the winning is cut into HALF. The odds now become 75-25. Some people think it becomes 70-30, but we can argue that later ...

Over 194.5 may still win, but that has nothing to do with the probability of winning.

So if the chances of winning the over 190.5 was 70%, the chances of winning the over 194.5 is now 35% (not exactly that but lets use 35%) and the odds for 196.5 is even lower. Now if you want to middle, the chances of a middling with 194.5 is now 42%, so that isn't too shabby either considering payout for the middle and the odds that you're playing it at.

Now would under 196.5 be the right side? It all depends on WHERE the 50% number was. I just guessed that over 190.5 was 70% - it could be 90% - who knows? If it was PROPER NUMBER was 195 and the books made a mistake, the chances of winning with under 196.5 is close to 62%, so why not play it at 52%-53% risk? If the proper number is actually 197, then 196.5 still holds no value. It all depends on where the REAL number lies. Figure that out and we're in business.

Example: There are 10 raffle tickets sold at $1 each. There is a jackpot of $12 if you win. You SHOULD buy a ticket. You have only a 10% chance of winning, so you probably won't win - but winning is not what you should focus on. The problem is in finding out how many tickets were sold

The VALUE is what will produce a winner in the long-run.

 

[Rainbow]

Just ask yourself a question do you think you have a better chance winning betting over 190.5 or do you think you have as good as chance winning in along run betting under 197.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Just ask yourself a question do you think you have a better chance winning betting over 190.5 or do you think you have as good as chance winning in along run betting under 197.

It is now 198, and to be honest, I am not sure, that is why I asked....OF

 

[oldmanTED]

When you have nearly an 8 point move, both sides become the right side. Regardless of outcome, and tonight will be but one example, a middle that large is the right play. Thus, for those that took Over 190.5 should now take Under 198 or better.

 

[cincy_]

Just ask yourself a question do you think you have a better chance winning betting over 190.5 or do you think you have as good as chance winning in along run betting under 197.

It all depends on what the PROPER number is - what I mean by that is the expected value or the mean. If that number is 198, over 197 is still good value.

Its like when we talk about a SOLID 3 in football as opposed to a 2 or a 4 that hit the 4 for a short while. A solid 3 simply means that the 3 is the proper number and the 2 and the 4 aren't. Its almost the same thing here, except we're not dealing with a key number.

 

[Rainbow]

It all depends on what the PROPER number is - what I mean by that is the expected value or the mean. If that number is 198, over 197 is still good value.

I understand what you are saying completely, its just a few dont understand that. right now the line is defintely inflated, but at the same time the guy that went over 190.5 will win the table cloth in along run thank God I"ve been doing it for along time to know that. people dont realize how much bigger EDGE you have by going over 190.5 compared to going under 197.5 or 198. not even close.

 

[cincy_]

I understand what you are saying completely, its just a few dont understand that. right now the line is defintely inflated, but at the same time the guy that went over 190.5 will win the table cloth in along run thank God I"ve been doing it for along time to know that. people dont realize how much bigger EDGE you have by going over 190.5 compared to going under 197.5 or 198. not even close.

Agree with you completely.

The bottom line is that over might not win and under 197.5 might, but the chances of 190.5 winning is higher - but that is IF WE ASSUME THAT THE PEOPLE WHO JACKED UP THIS LINE DIDNT MISS ANYTHING.

 

[Dante]

the wrong side becomes the right side when your on a losing streak and start fading yourself I have found out

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Agree with you completely.

The bottom line is that over might not win and under 197.5 might, but the chances of 190.5 winning is higher - but that is IF WE ASSUME THAT THE PEOPLE WHO JACKED UP THIS LINE DIDNT MISS ANYTHING.

New York rolled over and played dead last game, at home. Zeke assembled another masterpiece. I think they gave up 67 2nd H. Late add of Zydrunas may not work as he has 3 finger shot. Will see.

Learned a lot this thread...OF

 

[cincy_]

the wrong side becomes the right side when your on a losing streak and start fading yourself I have found out

... or being on a losing streak and not placing a bet for 2 weeks.

I had to take a break from capping because I was doing something wrong and couldn't figure it out. It was brutal.

Once you lose that confidence, you end up taking favorites and then you're really screwed.

 

[wilheim]

So much for this steamer

95-89 Knicks.




wil.