Do you suck at capping?

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BigPete

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Sep 21, 2004
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597
Then play the Moneylines versus the points and "you too can be a winner"(Richkas).

The following is my comparision of taking the points versus taking the moneyline.

CFB MLs since 2000 to week 7 2003, subject to human error:

Home Dog (+14to0)
ATS ( 228-236)= -29 units
ML (332 units won- 312 units lost)= +20 units

Home Dog (+12to0)
ATS (212-209)= -19 units
ML (280units won- 279lost)= 1 unit

Home Dog (+7to0)
ATS (136-147)= -24 units
ML (175 units won-174 units lost)= 1 unit

Home Dog (+3to0)
ATS (57-76) = -24 units
ML (68units-76units)= -8 units****Beware

Visiting Dog (+14to0)
ATS (383-352)= -4unit
ML (544-502)= 42 units****

Visiting Dog (+12to0)
ATS (329-305)= -6units
ML (462 units - 416 units)= 46 units****

Visiting Dog (+7to0)
ATS (195-189)= -12 units
ML (233 units-233 units)= even

Visiting Dog (+3to0)
ATS (76-72)= -3 units
ML (87units-77units)= 10 units

-------------------------------
When coupled with other angles, trends, stats etc.. you can increase your units even more.

So when you see me taking MLs at 14 points and think Im crazy you'll know why.

Last week a parlay of UT,WVU, and Ole Miss Moneylines paid me 45 to 1, so it can be very profitable at times.

Cheers!
 

tommybpa

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Sep 21, 2004
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Great info somewhat suprising when you see it broken down like that...
 

sammythesage

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Sep 20, 2004
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Home Dog (+14to0)
ATS ( 228-236)= -29 units
ML (332 units won- 312 units lost)= +20 units

should just play home dogs ML from 12-14 pts as all others are basically break even, eh

that is if you want a system play.
 

sammythesage

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Sep 20, 2004
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ATS (329-305)= -6units
ML (462 units - 416 units)= 46 units****

Visiting Dog (+7to0)
ATS (195-189)= -12 units
ML (233 units-233 units)= even

Visiting Dog (+3to0)
ATS (76-72)= -3 units
ML (87units-77units)= 10 units

here you would throw out v. dogs 4-7 and 13-14 and do much better from 0-3 and 8-12, all your other bets are treading water tying up money.
 

BigPete

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Sep 21, 2004
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597
good point Sammy, if I get some time, Ill try to do point ranges, ie 1-3,3.5-5, etc...
 

larjon

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Sep 21, 2004
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It seems Home dogs would be at a higher percentage than visiting dogs, Are you sure they are not reversed?
 

larjon

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Sep 21, 2004
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Thanks Pete: Don't mean to be a pain in the ass, I'm just interested in trying this system amd I don;t have access to that data. I need all the help I can get in the NBA.
GL
 

jwunderdog

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Jun 20, 2001
Messages
4,398
Big Pete, What are you using for your ML spreads IE.. +240-260 or whos MLs are you using?

Thanks
Interesting stuff.
 

BigPete

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Sep 21, 2004
Messages
597
I took Caribs and graphed the ml vs the spread, once I graphed it, i got a formula from the trendline and used it.

Also these were closing lines.
 

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