Do the Books make corrections for successful teams?

[GoSooners]

You bet they do. You can bet that the books have already made corections on those ultra successful teams from last season like OU's 10 ATS wins and Florida 10 wins. Anybody who had 9 wins or more last year I guarantee you will not get a break on the line from the books this year. Especially the bigger and more media exposed BCS teams. And it will be very hard to duplicate their ATS wins from '08. Here is a little something that I found interesting from the last 3 years. These are the ATS records of the successful teams who won 9 or more games against the spread the season before. And then what they did the next year. This should be a good reference guide for the teams who were successful this past season.

The 2006 to 2007 seasons ATS wins

BYU goes from 9 wins in 2006 to 5 ATS wins in 2007
Central Michigan 9 to 5
East Carolina 10 to 7
Nevada 10 to 4
Ohio State 10 to 7
Rice 9 to 5

The 2007 to 2008 season ATS wins

Air Force 9 to 7
Cincinnati 9 to 6
Kansas 10 to 6
Missouri 9 to 5

The 2008 teams who won 9 or more games ATS

Alabama 9 ATS wins
Florida 10
NCST 9
OU 10
Okie State 9
Penn State 9
Rutgers 9
TCU 9
Texas 9

Which of these 2008 teams will be hit the hardest by the books in 2009? I would for sure say the ones who aren't flying under the radar and who won their games by some big margins last season. The ones who come to mind first are OU, Florida, Texas and Penn State. I think it's going to not only be very hard for these teams to duplicate 9 or 10 ATS win seasons. It will be hard for anybody who bets on these teams blindly to make any kind of of profit at all. The last 3 years the most wins the next year that any team had after a 9 wins or more season was 7 wins ATS. Barely better than a .500 season. And out of the 10 teams who won 9 games or more ATS on this 2006-08 list 7 of them won just 6 games or less the next year. 70%...Something to keep in mind for the 2008 teams going into 2009. All I can say is if you choose to bet on these teams in 2009, choose carefully and pick your spots.

 

[UoweDucks]

nice post.I would be interested to see it from the opposite side as well. teams with terrible records ATS and how they improved year over year.

 

[SoonerBS]

You bet they do. You can bet that the books have already made corections on those ultra successful teams from last season like OU's 10 ATS wins and Florida 10 wins. Anybody who had 9 wins or more last year I guarantee you will not get a break on the line from the books this year. Especially the bigger and more media exposed BCS teams. And it will be very hard to duplicate their ATS wins from '08. Here is a little something that I found interesting from the last 3 years. These are the ATS records of the successful teams who won 9 or more games against the spread the season before. And then what they did the next year. This should be a good reference guide for the teams who were successful this past season.

The 2006 to 2007 seasons ATS wins

BYU goes from 9 wins in 2006 to 5 ATS wins in 2007
Central Michigan 9 to 5
East Carolina 10 to 7
Nevada 10 to 4
Ohio State 10 to 7
Rice 9 to 5

The 2007 to 2008 season ATS wins

Air Force 9 to 7
Cincinnati 9 to 6
Kansas 10 to 6
Missouri 9 to 5

The 2008 teams who won 9 or more games ATS

Alabama 9 ATS wins
Florida 10
NCST 9
OU 10
Okie State 9
Penn State 9
Rutgers 9
TCU 9
Texas 9

Which of these 2008 teams will be hit the hardest by the books in 2009? I would for sure say the ones who aren't flying under the radar and who won their games by some big margins last season. The ones who come to mind first are OU, Florida, Texas and Penn State. I think it's going to not only be very hard for these teams to duplicate 9 or 10 ATS win seasons. It will be hard for anybody who bets on these teams blindly to make any kind of of profit at all. The last 3 years the most wins the next year that any team had after a 9 wins or more season was 7 wins ATS. Barely better than a .500 season. And out of the 10 teams who won 9 games or more ATS on this 2006-08 list 7 of them won just 6 games or less the next year. 70%...Something to keep in mind for the 2008 teams going into 2009. All I can say is if you choose to bet on these teams in 2009, choose carefully and pick your spots.

The only problem with this is that all four of these teams had prolific offenses and good defenses. That is automatically a good receipe for successful ATS seasons. It seemed like the books couldn't set these lines too high. Also, remember, all the books want to do is make "juice" from a balanced number of wagers on each side of a game. There are enough dumbshit gamblers out there every year who see 28+ points as too many points to pass on. So, they will play the heavy dogs and get bit. This is all the books truly care about. Now, we may see some of these same gamblers get "wiser" this year and the books may have to raise the pointspread. The thing is, every one of these teams are likely to be prolific scorers and have good solid defenses again this season.

Your point is well taken though and more often than not it is a correct trend.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Great stat GS,
You could take this and factor it into some "bad spot" games for these teams and find an angle or two. I would say Florida will be hit hardest by the books but with the way Meyer runs up the score on teams late, it takes a lot to go against them in most situations. I remember the Miami game last year and he was running his star QB up the middle with under a minute to go trying to cover. Then kicked a FG with a few ticks left to go from up 20 to up 23! Rutgers and NC ST should stay under the radar but both teams will remind me that you can't give up on well coached teams that start the season with some bad losses.

This will be interesting to watch this year though, since I think coaches try to impress the pollsters way more now a days than ever before. Meyer, Stoops, Mack Brown, all these coaches go for the 50 point wins and it's hard for Vegas to cap that. We will be ready when these teams are laying 10-20 points, on the road, against good competition though...

 

[GoSooners]

The only problem with this is that all four of these teams had prolific offenses and good defenses. That is automatically a good receipe for successful ATS seasons. It seemed like the books couldn't set these lines too high. Also, remember, all the books want to do is make "juice" from a balanced number of wagers on each side of a game. There are enough dumbshit gamblers out there every year who see 28+ points as too many points to pass on. So, they will play the heavy dogs and get bit. This is all the books truly care about. Now, we may see some of these same gamblers get "wiser" this year and the books may have to raise the pointspread. The thing is, every one of these teams are likely to be prolific scorers and have good solid defenses again this season.

Your point is well taken though and more often than not it is a correct trend.

I think it's a combination of the bettors getting wiser and the books making adjustments. Washington State was a good example last year. They went from getting 7 points a game to 7 TD's a game. No matter how good your team is, the books will still make adjustments. And they'll go as far as they can to still get that 50/50 split on both sides. But one side has to lose. All I'm saying is that by these stats alone, the bettors who have lost the next season are the ones who continue to bet on these teams.

 

[SoonerBS]

Great stat GS,
You could take this and factor it into some "bad spot" games for these teams and find an angle or two. I would say Florida will be hit hardest by the books but with the way Meyer runs up the score on teams late, it takes a lot to go against them in most situations. I remember the Miami game last year and he was running his star QB up the middle with under a minute to go trying to cover. Then kicked a FG with a few ticks left to go from up 20 to up 23! Rutgers and NC ST should stay under the radar but both teams will remind me that you can't give up on well coached teams that start the season with some bad losses.

This will be interesting to watch this year though, since I think coaches try to impress the pollsters way more now a days than ever before. Meyer, Stoops, Mack Brown, all these coaches go for the 50 point wins and it's hard for Vegas to cap that. We will be ready when these teams are laying 10-20 points, on the road, against good competition though...

I really don't think any of these coaches WANT to have to run the score up personally, but I think the BCS has made it necessary in order for teams to get to the BCS games . . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

If you think there isn't at least a little bit of validity to this, check this out. I went back and looked at the teams who won just 8 games ATS for a season and what they did the next season. This covers the 2006-2007 seasons:

Ball State 8 to 7 wins the next season
Hawaii 4
Michigan 5
Louisville 3
Rutgers 5
San Jose 6
South Carolina 5
Syracuse 3
Tennessee 7
Texas A&M 5
ULM 7
UCLA 8
Wisky 4

2007-08

Florida 10
UCONN 5
Oregon 6
UCLA 8
Troy 7

So only 2 teams out of this whole bunch was able to duplicate or better an 8 ATS win season. This is 2 out of 18 teams.

Teams who won 8 games ATS in 2008

Ball State
CAL
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Ga Tech
Ole Miss
Oregon State
Rice
Utah State

 

[GoSooners]

nice post.I would be interested to see it from the opposite side as well. teams with terrible records ATS and how they improved year over year.

Ducks...I'll take a look at this and see what i come up with.

 

[GoSooners]

Great stat GS,
You could take this and factor it into some "bad spot" games for these teams and find an angle or two. I would say Florida will be hit hardest by the books but with the way Meyer runs up the score on teams late, it takes a lot to go against them in most situations. I remember the Miami game last year and he was running his star QB up the middle with under a minute to go trying to cover. Then kicked a FG with a few ticks left to go from up 20 to up 23! Rutgers and NC ST should stay under the radar but both teams will remind me that you can't give up on well coached teams that start the season with some bad losses.

This will be interesting to watch this year though, since I think coaches try to impress the pollsters way more now a days than ever before. Meyer, Stoops, Mack Brown, all these coaches go for the 50 point wins and it's hard for Vegas to cap that. We will be ready when these teams are laying 10-20 points, on the road, against good competition though...

Tootight...I think it's going to be very difficult for any of these 9 or 10 win teams to duplicate what they did last year. The teams that I think could come closest is Okie State and maybe Texas because both of these teams are still on the upswing. But it's awfully hard to better 9 wins. Nobody has been able to do it in the last 3 years. Around 8 win seasons seem more realistic for these two teams.

 

[GoSooners]

nice post.I would be interested to see it from the opposite side as well. teams with terrible records ATS and how they improved year over year.

Ducks...Here are the numbers from the least successful teams for the last 3 years and what they did the next season. I started with teams who had 4 ATS wins or less and followed up what they did the next season. I won't list the teams because there are so many of them. I'll just list the numbers.

ATS Records for losing teams from the 2006 to 2007 seasons

4-9
2-4
4-6
4-7
4-6
3-4
4-5
3-7
3-8
4-7
2-6
4-4
1-6
3-6
4-4
4-4
3-7
4-4
4-6
3-7
4-6
3-5
4-4
4-5
4-5
4-5
3-6
2-4
4-5
4-6
4-7
4-5
3-7


ATS Records for losing teams between the 2007-08 seasons

2-9
4-6
4-8
3-8
4-4
4-7
3-4
4-4
4-6
4-8
2-5
3-5
4-3*
4-4
4-5
4-7
4-5
3-5
3-6
3-4
4-4
4-7
3-5
4-6
4-7
2-2*
4-5
3-5

Out of the 61 teams who won 4 games or less for the 2006-2007 seasons, all but one team either at least duplicated their record or improved on it the next season. The great majority improved. The one team who did worse the next season from the season before was LSU. The one team who won only 2 games ATS the last 2 years was Wyoming. That's why they'll have a new HC this year.

Here are the teams who won 4 games ATS or less in 2008:

Arizona State 4
Arkansas St.3
Auburn 2
BYU 3
Colorado 4
Eastern Mich. 4
East Carolina 4
Idaho 4
Houston 4
Georgia 3
Fresno 2
Illinois 4
Indiana 3
Marshall 4
LSU 3
Miami (Ohio) 4
Michigan 2
Miss. St. 4
NMST 4
North Texas 4
SMU 4
Texas A&M 4
USF 4
Virginia Tech 4
Wyoming 2
WKU 3
West Va. 4
Washington 1

 

[UoweDucks]

Here are the teams who won 4 games ATS or less in 2008:


Washington 1

Thanks. Great stuff Gosooners.

I am telling anyone who will listen, UW is going to be a "play on" team ATS this year. I am very much looking forward to game one at home vs LSU. The game just got picked up for national TV. So did game 3 vs USC.

I smell $$, just gimme a nice overinflated line. PLEASE

 

[GoSooners]

Thanks. Great stuff Gosooners.

I am telling anyone who will listen, UW is going to be a "play on" team ATS this year. I am very much looking forward to game one at home vs LSU. The game just got picked up for national TV. So did game 3 vs USC.

I smell $$, just gimme a nice overinflated line. PLEASE

Ducks...I noticed that the teams over the last 3 years who have averaged 2 ATS wins or less the season before have improved an average of almost 4 wins ATS the next season. So my guess is we can probably expect Washington to hit close to the 5 ATS mark this season. Maybe more if Locker gets comfortable in their new offensive schemes. So this team will have alot of value. My guess is more so early on before the books adjust the lines. UW will be on my list as a good value team this season

 

[Conan]

Thanks. Great stuff Gosooners.

I am telling anyone who will listen, UW is going to be a "play on" team ATS this year. I am very much looking forward to game one at home vs LSU. The game just got picked up for national TV. So did game 3 vs USC.

I smell $$, just gimme a nice overinflated line. PLEASE

My exact thoughts when I noticed UW on the list.

Geez... some of these "shifts" will take some cajones to bet... at least at first. But I do like Udub in the LSU game already.

All the hype both ways is killing me! ...and I haven't even seen any yet! LOL!



I think learning all you can about the teams on last year's loser list is a must. That could sharpen up this angle nicely.


PS: Watch out for Wyoming too.

 

[UoweDucks]

Ducks...I noticed that the teams over the last 3 years who have averaged 2 ATS wins or less the season before have improved an average of almost 4 wins ATS the next season. So my guess is we can probably expect Washington to hit close to the 5 ATS mark this season. Maybe more if Locker gets comfortable in their new offensive schemes. So this team will have alot of value. My guess is more so early on before the books adjust the lines. UW will be on my list as a good value team this season

Totally agree. And you are right it clearly depends on Locker because after him there is nothing.

Also interested in seeing how Michigan fares this year.

 

[Conan]

I think what would be great is to try to theoretically project this seasons "winner" and "losers" ATS. There are plenty of teams on the current watch lists that can be eliminated from those lists right off the bat.

I think everyone has their own list of teams they like to fade and play on in a given year. This information could help sharpen that up a lot.

 

[russ1945]

My guess is that Las Vegas has guys who spend all summer doing what we do and for all we know they scan the forums for info too. The concept of a line being off is a relative one and "taking advantage" of a line can be a two way street. As much as we study we should not let the line influence us into changing our minds. Lines can influence certain people. You can also get into a lot of trouble in the first week of a new season if you think a given team is going to change dramatically one way or another from the prior year. They may eventually but maybe not completely in week one. Anytime you bet on a team expecting them to do something they have never done before will kill you then and anytime during the season as well. We may do our homework and we may not consider ourselves part of "the public" but sometimes ignorance is bliss also. I am already looking at the week one games and trying to predict an outcome based on diferentials. I am more excited about week two when I have a bone to chew on and I can make some adjustments from the prior year numbers. We may be smarter than the average bear but we are bears just the same. I know a lot of people who have been knocked out of action in the first month and it can happen to anyone.

 

[GoSooners]

My guess is that Las Vegas has guys who spend all summer doing what we do and for all we know they scan the forums for info too. The concept of a line being off is a relative one and "taking advantage" of a line can be a two way street. As much as we study we should not let the line influence us into changing our minds. Lines can influence certain people. You can also get into a lot of trouble in the first week of a new season if you think a given team is going to change dramatically one way or another from the prior year. They may eventually but maybe not completely in week one. Anytime you bet on a team expecting them to do something they have never done before will kill you then and anytime during the season as well. We may do our homework and we may not consider ourselves part of "the public" but sometimes ignorance is bliss also. I am already looking at the week one games and trying to predict an outcome based on diferentials. I am more excited about week two when I have a bone to chew on and I can make some adjustments from the prior year numbers. We may be smarter than the average bear but we are bears just the same. I know a lot of people who have been knocked out of action in the first month and it can happen to anyone.

Russ...I have to disagree with just about everything you said. Lines do mean something. Without them we wouldn't need to be having any of these discussions during the summer. We could just go out and pick a team. I doubt that anybody from the books are studying forum discussions between peons like us to get an idea of how to set a line on a particualr team. Truth is, the books set the lines the way "they" think the public will bet on both sides. But they can be way off on their lines. Especially early in the season (Example overestimating Washington St. last season). The reason I started this thread is because I feel because of what a team did the season before can have in many cases a big influence on the lines going into next season. Will they be respecting OU too much in expecting them to be a scoring machine once again, even though they lose their entire OL and WR's? My guess is they could be respecting OU a little too much at the beginning and we can get some value betting against the Sooners in those games with big spreads. Same holds for Florida. Can they duplicate 10 ATS wins again without Percy Harvin on offense and with a bigger target on their backs? My bet is they can't. I think the books will re-evaluate last season and fiigure they can set the lines extra high this season until these teams prove they can't get the spread.. Both OU and Florida will probably be geared more towards defense this season. And it makes betting on them in big spread games much more iffy IMO. It doesn't mean they won't win their games. They just won't be as successful covering in those games.

As for if a team can change from season to season, I believe a team can completely change from one season to another. It's been proved over and over year after year. And many times it has to do with a new coach hiring. I'll give you two examples. Baylor and Georgia Tech. These teams would have made the losing teams list that I made for Ducks up above. Baylor had won just 3 games ATS the year before and GT had only won 4. Both were completely different teams than they were the year before. And both significantly improved their ATS total. Both won 8 games ATS. Baylor did it while only winning 4 regular season games. Still think the lines don't mean that much early in the season? I do agree with you about one thing, taking advantage of lines is a two way street. It's just a matter of which side of the street you want to be on. But I disagree with you about not letting the lines change your mind. The number on the line has changed my mind many times. It gets to a point where the public bets it off my max number. Or it can be the other way where the public is helping my cause when I'm going against them. Line movements mean "everything". How comfortable do you feel when you bet a team early in the week and the public gets on your team too and bet it even higher? I don't know about you, but i've never felt comfortable when the public agrees with me. And I've actually got off bets or lowered my wager when the public has jumped on my team.. The general betting public is usually wrong. They may have the right winning team. But miss the line.. Don't kid yourself. Lines mean everything. Especially early in the season. And this is when I usually have my most success.

 

[russ1945]

My intention is to make the point that a line is simply a number that the book thinks will ideally split the wagers evenly. My main point there was not to let a line sway your thought. LY I made most of my bets on Monday, Sunday night if I had the opportunity. I can't remember getting off of a bet because the public moved it although I may have. I do my handicapping on Sunday for the next week without any outside influence. If a line comes out within my acceptable range I play it. If I think the line will change then I am alright staying with it if I have an advantage over the line movement, public or no public. Sometimes the public is right too and they could be right about the team and wrong about the line THEY bet it at. You are right that some teams can transform from one year to the next but my point was don't expect it all to happen in week one or two. Usually line movement early in the week is so called "smart money".
As far as OU and Florida go they will rely on defenses but good defenses create turnovers and create good opportunities for their offenses. Scores can get run up with good special teams play. Last year OU was horrible on special teams and I expect that to be more along the lines they played against Florida in the bowl. If you think Bradford came back to hand the ball off to the halfbacks all day you better rethink it. I do expect their running game and short passing game to be a forte but that only sets up the deep one even more. Bradford can hit a wide open receiver all day long. I am surprised how pessimistic you are concerning OU in general not as a point pulling machine but of their offensive potential in relation to LY. They may have the same kind of point spread differential and not have to have the offensive output if the defense improves as a scoring defense.
As far as Florida goes they lost playmakers but according to their homers they will not be missed. We will see.
Word of caution - the jist of what I said before was week one is not the week to think you are going to outsmart the linemakers. They know what they are doing. I have spent more time than ever before studying earlier than ever before but not to try to make a killing on week one. Teams evolve and take on their own personality, I think you have said that before. I can and will wait for an opportunity. Maybe something like Arizona at Iowa where I know the public (even guys on here) have already made up their minds. South Carolina, Nevada, and Illinois could surprise a lot of people too.
I am not challenging you or your line of thought and in the light of day it is kind of like Yogi said, when you get to the fork in the road take it.

 

[Conan]

GoSooners, I have a theory.

This is based on 3 principles.

1. Books are guaranteed to make out if they split the action between both sides 50/50. That is in theory how they operate.

2. They attempt to make a best guess estimate of how the game will end up by making a line that is as accurate a prediction of the final outcome as possible and difficult to debunk.

3. The public usually bets on favorites and especially popular favorites.

Roll all 3 of those factors into a single number and it would be very much to their advantage to penalize favorite bettors as much as they can get away with (see #3). That will insure them that if the action is not 50/50 (which it almost never is) they will be assured of being on the winning side and the majority will be on the losing side most of the time.

 

[GoSooners]

Here are the teams who won 4 games ATS or less in 2008:

Arizona State 4
Arkansas St.3
Auburn 2
BYU 3
Colorado 4
Eastern Mich. 4
East Carolina 4
Idaho 4
Houston 4
Georgia 3
Fresno 2
Illinois 4
Indiana 3
Marshall 4
LSU 3
Miami (Ohio) 4
Michigan 2
Miss. St. 4
NMST 4
North Texas 4
SMU 4
Texas A&M 4
USF 4
Virginia Tech 4
Wyoming 2
WKU 3
West Va. 4
Washington 1




Here are the top 20 teams each from FBS who should be the most improved teams this year
based on stats of returning players. Increase in ratings points are also displayed.

FBS TEAMS change
Toledo 7.65
Washington 7.18
Minnesota 5.69
Indiana 5.37
Vanderbilt 5.22
Florida 5.15
Georgia Tech 5.09
U A B 4.96
Baylor 4.55
Central Mich 4.45
Texas-El Paso 4.45
S M U 3.91
Texas 3.67
Southern Miss 3.60
Arkansas 3.53
U C L A 3.44
Stanford 3.25
Notre Dame 3.17
East Carolina 2.88
San Diego St 2.87


I got this most improved teams list from the Keepers site. I think he bases these numbers on returning offensive and defensive starters along with returning yards production. The teams that I listed who had won 4 or less games last season and matchup to this list as the most improved teams are:

Washington (I expect a big ATS jump here. And the Huskies are very high on Keepers list)
Indiana (Don't they have a new coach?)
East Carolina (They had a winning season last year. They just couldn't beat the spread)
Wyoming (This team looks promising with a new coach and just 2 covers each of the last 2 years..So they should be flying way way under the radar. Their offensive production is sure to go up this season. Which could lead to more covers)
SMU (Still a very questionable defense. But I expect fewer mistakes in June Jones second year of his offense. I look for improvement. I'm just not sure how much)