Do teams that are -108 win at 52%, -150 win 60%, -170 win 63%, etc.....

[Iceman]

meaning does anyone have the data that states if teams wins at the EXACT rate of their moneyline. Does it go hand in hand (in baseball).

I think it would be interesting if anyone had this (sure someone does)

 

[Doug]

meaning does anyone have the data that states if teams wins at the EXACT rate of their moneyline. Does it go hand in hand (in baseball).

I think it would be interesting if anyone had this (sure someone does)

Not worded very well ?

If the favs won at that rate, the fav bettor would break dead even,and the dog bettor would lose all the vig. In just about every sport the blind bettor is better off taking the dog side.

 

[Iceman]

Your right it isn't worded very well. Trying to get people to open this thread in one sentence isn't easy.

I do beleiev in the bet dogs blindly method , more than favorites.

Just wondering how accurate these moneylines are compared to the odds. Are they dead on?

I am sure someone has a database with that info.

 

[Doug]

Your right it isn't worded very well. Trying to get people to open this thread in one sentence isn't easy.

I do beleiev in the bet dogs blindly method , more than favorites.

Just wondering how accurate these moneylines are compared to the odds. Are they dead on?

I am sure someone has a database with that info.

ask "Dreamer" at Fezz's, he's the database guy ! The fav wouldn't win at that %age, IMO.

 

[Journeyman]

Plus you have to consider the starting line vs the finishing one, which would fluctuate...Also the line is nothing more than public perception more than anything else...it's our job to come in and beat the other bettor's not the linesmaker.

 

[Insiders]

IF someone did in fact have this data, it would have NO effect on the next game or even the next 10 games, or maybe even the next 100 games.

 

[Doug]

With either set of lines if the fav breaks even that's the right side because the dog side player would be losing, somebody pays the vig !

Reverse it and does the dog win at the indicated %age ? Both can't break even.

 

[trytrytry]

yes it breaks down exactly like that. over the long term the best wy to find the most frequent winner (or rank the winners liklihood of winning is by money line.) And its almost nuts on -160 win at about -155 -130 win at about -125 etc. etc. etc.

Same is true almost exactly in horses. the best prediction of a horses chance of winning are his closing odds (with trakc take out factored in) if you look at every race, every day. the 6-5 win more than the 8-5 and in that exact ratio.

This is not to say every line is exact and not any overlay opportunities, there are many of them, Im talking about if you consider all the lines or all the horses.
spot plays (are blips on the radar screen)

 

[Iceman]

IF someone did in fact have this data, it would have NO effect on the next game or even the next 10 games, or maybe even the next 100 games.

not at all saying it would. I was just curious more than anything. Like maybe comparing Baseball to Football or hoops. Thought it may be interesting to share this info.

Not at all trying to gain any edge with it, not even sure how you would.