Discussion on sides and totals please read!!

[NorthernStar]

I have been a long time lurker and I have often read thoughts, opinions and ideas that are not logical posted by various handicappers. I want to help dispell some of these theories. I want to start with playing the side and total on any given game.

First you must feel comfortable handicapping both the side and total. Some people stink at picking totlals. If that is the case just leave them alone, in fact I think you should keep track of your record on totals separately. I found out I was much better picking totals in baseball rather than sides for example and other than the playoffs I generally stick to totals.

This gets me to picking a side and total in a football game for instance. I think it is easier to go 2-0 if you handicapped the game right. If that is the case then playing a parlay of some sort on the game would be a profitable move. Lets take the example of the Vikes yesterday. I thought the vikes would cover. If they are going to cover it would be because there offense is going to score alot and win the game. Logically, if that is the case then the game has a higher possibility of going over the total. Now if I am wrong and Minnesota doesn't score alot then I am also going to lose both sides. I think, if you handicapp the game correct you have increased the odds of getting the total correct.

Tonight in Monday night you have a high scoring offense and weak defense vs a weak offense and a good defense ( not perfect but for arguement purposes). In my theory, if you play st.louis it would logically follow that the over is the totals play. If you play Tampa the logic would follow the under is the play. This theory works best playing strong offensive teams to the over and strong defensive teams and the under.

I do not like the combination of sides and totals with large favorites with strong defenses, if the opponent by chance scores a cheap touchdown there is no way to get both sides home as winners.

I hope this concept is of help in your handicapping.

 

[NorthernStar]

Based on the above theory I think Stl wins the game and does so with its offense.

2* Stl / Stl Over

 

[Megacapper]

I have done this type of thing in the NBA with quite a bit of success. Never really thought about it in football other than parlaying a rather large favorite with the over.

This does appear to be a very good concept.

 

[charleslanger]

I agree with what you say-- i had Minny & the over parlayed......


Re the Rams-- there, i can picture them winning 20-7, 20-14... in other words, will they score the points that Tampa doesn't score, will they run up the score? I'm so worried about this point, that not even a teaser lowering the total to 35½ looks in the bag to me.....Looking at the scores of their games this season, the Rams usually don't blow out a team. On the other hand, their defense is/may not be good enough to keep Tampa's offense so in check......

 

[99Percent]

I agree with what you say-- i had Minny & the over parlayed......


Re the Rams-- there, i can picture them winning 20-7, 20-14... in other words, will they score the points that Tampa doesn't score, will they run up the score? I'm so worried about this point, that not even a teaser lowering the total to 35½ looks in the bag to me.....Looking at the scores of their games this season, the Rams usually don't blow out a team. On the other hand, their defense is/may not be good enough to keep Tampa's offense so in check......

Yup, these scenarios can certainly pan out. If Rams lead 24-7 into the fourth quarter, you can see the rams running the rest of the quarter while Tampa's weak offense continue to struggle to run out the game. Finally, it's a decent concept but still a crap shoot. Take a look at some past games and matchups to verify this info.

 

[ilovefootball+]

how this game will be over if TB are not going to score?


remember sF game? game lead by how much and second half they didn't even score. RAM coach are very stupid.

 

[NorthernStar]

Most people who play have an idea of why they are playing a certain team. TB has played stl tough in the past but their defense isn't the same as in the past. The concept is I think Stl will winn with defense and not offense. Subtract 7 from total and you get 35. Basically 17 for tb and 24 for stl. If you think stl is going to cover the 7 then they need to score more than 24 which I think they will. If they score more than 24 then I think the game will go over the total. This is just from a concept standpoint. This is not a sure strong game for me. My top game and combo won yesterday with Washington on moneyline and the under. Both pretty easy winners. I am just trying to present handicapping concepts to help those on the forum. Just for fun I will predict the final score
Stl. 31 - TB 20

As always Good Luck!!

 

[mansiu777]

I agree!!

Rams coach is so stupid. Also, Last week Rams win over Seattle is ridiculous!! I mean Seattle is a better team compare the Rams. What the hell are they doing in the last 5 mins of the game. A few TD and win this game and cover!! But tonight, I don't see how the rams going to score that easy!! TB is still playing a good defense, and Jon Gruden is stupid. I think they should fire Brad Johnson and Simms, and put Brian Grieses for the starting QB!! Remember he's in Denver and Miami few years ago. He's still having a Good arm to throw the balls. I am going to see the TB Defense step up and Blitz Bulger HARD to drop passes, fumbles, INT a few times with a TD maybe!! On the public tonight, STL is their play, but to me I will take the pts and BET on the TB!!

GL all!!
BEST bet:
TB +6.5

 

[ElIguana]

Northern Star, your concept is good, but one must also look at situations and fundamental match-ups, personnel, i.e. Tampa Bay showing new offensive life on the road last week beating the same NO team that beat StL in the dome 3 weeks ago. I'm not getting into the who-beat-who argument, but there are many other factors cappers must consider other than "scoring team wins=over, defensive team wins=under." Great topic for discussion. There are many others in this forum who have far more knowledge and advice than I do, and I hope they offer their 2 cents worth. GL

 

[Anonymous1]

good concept...but does the defensive team win the battle or does the offensive team win the battle...it is certainly a consistent thought process to your final selection...however...put against the spread it really does little to produce a winner...many times...as with the denver v. oakland game yesterday...the offensive team of denver...certainly the better of the two this year won out in scoring as they should...and yet the game total went under...similar was the miami v. buffalo game which went over and neither have offense...so go figure...

 

[NorthernStar]

My typed post earlier in the thread had a mistake but I think everyone understood the idea. I thought STL would win with offense and cover plus push the game over the total. My idea is not just favorite and over, or underdog and under. It is based on how you think a team is going to win and using that as the basis for the total. In cheapseat examples of den, I probably would have leaned towards the over and lost. On the Miami game if I were to play miami I would have played the under on the assumption that if miami was going to win and cover that game they were going to do it with defense and not their offense. Once again it would have been a loser. On that game in particular I thought Buffalo was the right play and I thought their defense would shut down a poor miami offense. I leaned towards Buffalo and the under. The total line minus the game line was too low to compel me to play it. If miami scored at all you have no chance to win both. I think this theory works best when you have teams who strength really lies on one side of the ball, examples Minnesota on offense, or Baltimore on defense. The game last night won for me but it didn't play out like I thought. Stl scored right away and it started like I thought it would. After that although I didn't watch much it looks and sound like the Stl defense won they game with the four turnovers and one going for a touchdown. 4 missed fg or it goes over even easier. The harder part was I think stl struggled to cover the number.
As Always Good Luck

 

[NorthernStar]

As I was writing my last response I thought I would go check out of curiosity how Minnesota has done with the over and Baltimore to the under. This is tainted for Minnesota because I already know they have scored a bunch. I would never recomend just playing all of Minnesota's games and tie it to the over. But for arguement sake, Minnesota and the over would be 4-1, the one game they didn't win went under and they lost to Phil.

Looking at Baltimore, 3-2 on the year SU. They are 2-1 to win game and go under. When there defense shuts down the opponent they are more likely to win and 2 out of three they went under at the same time.

Didn't take the time to look at some other dominant offenses or defenses. If you are playing one of these teams consider putting a smaller amount on a parlay along with the either the over or the under. Let me know how it works out for you.

Northern Star

 

[charleslanger]

Northern Star:

Glad you weren't swayed away from the game.... glad the end of the game worked out ok. I was worried that Griese would play well(his father wasn't the most physically gifted-- but he played smart and didn't beat himself with mistakes)-- even if he éventually doesn't become the man there, initially just the change & new opportunity can carry someone.

I have a real hard time parlaying a team and the Under-- as you successfully did with Washington....
all it takes is a turnover / giveaway early against my team, then i gotta start hoping for them to score points but not too many.. they might then abandon their game plan & pass more to catch up, which may lengthen the game, also may lead to extra points either scored by them, or interceptions leading to opposing pointss...... either way, pretty soon it becomes mathematically or realistically impossible to get both a win and an under......

I have been able though, to take both sides in the sort of manner you mention with Miamii-- say 2 parlays, or a dutch of 1 parlay with 1 teaser: Miami & Under, Buffalo & Over.......

But i do love taking a team and the Over often-- in fact, i'm frustrated my book won't allow it on baseball........

Best regards........

 

[NorthernStar]

Your point in regards to favorite and under is well taken. I don't like that combination on larger favorites for just the reasons you pointed out. But small favorites or dogs and unders work just fine. Back to my premise, you don't bet on a team like Baltimore because of their offense. You bet on them because of their defense. If that is the case you are already stating it should be low scoring. I think this theory can be applied to other sports like baseball and basketball. On baseball quickly, I think a run line bet and the over in parks where the totals are high is a good play, places like wrigley and the wind blowing out, colorado or for that matter high posted lines 11 or above. The line already tells you they expect alot of scoring. I think it increases the possibility of a team winning by more than one line.

As always good luck!