Dirtydog's Week #15 Selections with analysis.....Good Luck To Everyone!!

[DIRTYDOG1]

Hello my friends...

I have been fortunate to have a pretty good start on the week with regard to collecting a full 5 units on my 2 unit Monday Night parlay on Carolina & OVER and then followed that up with two winning plays on Thursday Night as the OVER 44 in the Saints//Chicago game came in for another 2 units.

Unfortunately my add-on 2 unit Parlay on New Orleans +3 and the OVER 46 was reduced to a straight wager due to the "push" on the side, oh well, it still tallies up to +9 units so far for the week.

I will be posting my play selections and analysis as I complete them in this same thread, the plays I post will be in the order that I am most fearful of losing value on with regard to the point spread, meaning that if I believe a line move will occur somewhere between now and game time I will post that selection first as a means of taking advantage of the most current spot.

The reason for doing so is because as most of you already know the general "Joe Public" type bettors like to wager on the Favs and the OVERS, however, that doesn't always hold true because the average bettor also allows alot of false perceptions concerning one team or another to cloud the proper prospective of any given match up, which means that if we...

...the supposed smarter than the average Joe bettors, want the best line available we have to be able to properly access which way the line will move and how the move will affect the side or total that we like.

Anyway, its almost 5 pm here in the eastern time zone of snowy Pittsburgh, Pa and the wife is due home at anytime and lord knows that if I am not ready to take her out for our usual Friday night dinner I will be in big time trouble..enough said!!

I will be posting a play or two later this evening (Friday night) and will probably post another couple of plays tomorrow (Saturday) and then will undoubtably post another play or two on Sunday morning after I see how the line has moved on a game or two that I have been keeping tabs on.

Take care for now my friends and be well...

Jim

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:

Hello my friends...

Well, it is now Saturday morning and needless to say I did not make it back to the ole computer last night to post a game or two as I stated above..but hey..that happens from time to time and especially when you take the wife out on a Friday night for dinner followed up with karaoke, a few adult beverages, and a pool table!!

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BALTIMORE -2.5 over Pittsburgh
Baltimore & Pittsburgh.....OVER 34

Sunday 12/14/08 4:15 pm est
2**Unit Play Selection on each
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In another thread earlier this week when writing about last Sunday's contest between Pittsburgh and Dallas in which the Steelers scored 17 fourth quarter points including two TD's in a 24 second span, I mentioned that following that game (which I was watching with my wife and some friends) that I had made the comment "Boy did Pittsburgh get lucky"...

...needless to say my wife who is a HUGE Steeler fan almost literally jumped down my throat in replying "How can you say Pittsburgh got lucky, there was 60 minutes in the game and Pittsburgh scored more points than Dallas in the same time frame"!!

What could I say to that?...she was right.

However, in the big picture...that Pittsburgh//Dallas game, (which BTW was moved to the late afternoon time slot in order to garner bigger ratings), was undoubtably the most watched game over any other that took place Sunday afternoon.

Afterall, when you get two of the nations most loved and highest profile teams together then the ratings will naturally be there, which sets up nicely as a lead-in for this week...

...let me see a show of hands out there for those of you who truly believe that either Pittsburgh or Dallas tossed everything they had including the ole kitchen sink into that affair as a means to win.

I am NOT saying that Pittsburgh or Dallas wasn't playing to win, because in fact they were, that much was obvious because the game itself was a good one....

...what I am saying is that each team did NOT want to dip too far into their respective offensive or defensive playbooks, why you ask?

Simple, the Boyzzzzzz had a rematch with the Giants on deck and the Black and Gold had a rematch with Baltimore on deck and in the big scheme of things each team (Pittsburgh and Dallas) viewed the next game on their calendar as more important than this non conference affair...

...mainly because the next game up (Pittsburgh vs Baltimore and Dallas vs New York) held more meaning to each because the game on deck is against not only a CONFERENCE opponent but also against a DIVISIONAL rival.

Once again, don't get me wrong here...both Pittsburgh and Dallas naturally wanted to add a "W" to the ole win column because as we all know...total wins for the season is a necessary ingredient for playoff seeding, however, divisional and conference games are by far more important.

Anyway, the reason for pointing out the above including how the game itself was so highly rated and was probably the most watched is because the final score when the gun sounded was Pittsburgh 20-13 and as already mentioned the Steelers had to score 17 fourth quarter points to win, I saw it, you saw it and more importantly...the PUBLIC saw it as well....

....public perception is a funny thing as it weighs heavily into the odds makers final side or total line that he or she puts out on a game.

The public also saw the Baltimore Ravens win last Sunday 24-10 over the visiting Deadskins, thusly, Pittsburgh & Dallas's combined point tally was 33 while Baltimore & Washington's combined point tally was 34....so what does the odds maker do this week when Pittsburgh travels to Baltimore?

The odds maker says to himself..."Self let's see here, "Joe Public" knows that Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have stellar defenses and "Joe Public" just saw combined point tallies of 33 and 34 in Pittsburgh and Baltimore's last outing....hmmmmm, I think I'll open the O/U up at 33".

The dirty little secret here my friends is that fact that the past FOUR STRAIGHT TIMES that Pittsburgh and Baltimore have hooked up....has produced OVERS!!

Oddly enough, the opening O/U of 33 (which is now 34) placed on this affair is about what it usually is as the average total placed on Steeler & Ravens games has been 35.5...however...the last four times they have met has produced combined score tallies of 43, 48, 45, and 38 which is an average combined score of 43.5.

Wanna know something else?

This season alone Pittsburgh and Baltimore are a combined 7-2 to the OVER in divisional games and over the long haul these two teams combined have gone OVER the total in 22 of their last 32 divisional games....its all a matter of perception.

Now as for the side in this contest, why do I like Baltimore -2.5 over my hometown Steelers you ask?

Simple, I have watched these Steelers play all season long and I can tell you this much...their offensive line is TERRIBLE...Pittsburgh has allowed 41 sacks on the season to date which gives them a shoddy ranking of #28 in the league.

...most disturbing is the fact that against good defensive teams (Philly, Baltimore, Giants, Washington, and Dallas) the Steelers have allowed a total of 26 sacks for an average of 5.2 sacks per game, meanwhile, the Raven offensive line has only allowed a TOTAL of 24 sacks all season long.

This game against Baltimore is key to Pittsburgh's hopes of winning the division and possibly latching onto the #2 seed for the playoffs, with that in mind who doya think the Steelers will game plan around their offensive line woes?

For starters I think Steeler offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is an idiot with regard to some of his play calling and the formations that he runs, but that's not here or there as even Arians HAS to be smart enough to know that the key in this game against Baltimore's defense will be to get the ball out of QB "Big Ben's" hand quickly...

...look for the Steelers to utilize alot of spread sets with quick 5 to 10 yard passes sprinkled with a few draw plays and screens mixed in with a shot downfield here and there, I would look for Baltimore to employ the same strategy against Pittsburgh's defense as well...

...this in effect will lengthen the game and is another reason why I love the OVER in this contest, the edge has to be given to Baltimore in winning the game in straight up fashion because of their advantage with having the better offensive line which has only allowed 24 sacks on the year and their home field where Baltimore has won 16 of their last 23 games in straight up fashion.

KEY STATS:

The betting public LOVES to wager on certain high profile teams and Pittsburgh is one of those teams, and why not? Afterall the Steelers are 12-4 straight up in their last 16 divisional games...

...however, the fly in the proverbial ointment is that although Pittsburgh is 5-1 straight up on the road this year, long term the Steelers are only 11-11 straight up in their last 22 roadies and are facing a Baltimore team that has won 17 of their last 23 outings in straight up fashion when installed as a favorite.

The icing on the cake stems from the fact that Baltimore has won and covered 5 of their last 7 games ATS when installed as a home favorite of 3 or less points and has also won and covered 3 of their last 4 revenge games ATS.
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As mentioned above, I will be posting my other play selections as time permits.....Take care and be well

Jim

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:

Hello my friends..

I promise not to be sooooo long winded with my remaining play selections for this week and will instead simply hit on the key points with regard to why I like one side or total of a contest.
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Green Bay & Jacksonville.....OVER 45.5
Sunday 12/14/08 1:00 pm est
2**Unit Play Selection
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The total on this contest opened somewhere between 45 and 46 depending on where you looked and it has essentially remained the same, meanwhile, the side on this affair opened somewhere between GB -1 to GB -2 depending on where you looked and the side has also essentially remained the same.

Those that like the Packers in this contest better grab that number now because in my humble opinion come game time the line will be closer to GB -3, on the other hand those that like the Jags would be well served to wait awhile for a better number.

As for the total, I love the OVER in this contest and recommend that those that like the OVER as I do...play it now..because as you know the general public likes to play predominatly OVERS which is the reason why I played the OVER in the Carolina & Tampa game as well as the OVER in the Saints & Bears game two days prior to kickoff...

....as it turned out the total moved upward 2.5 points in the Carolina/TB game and rose 2 points from 44 to 46 in the Saints/Bears game, both games easily flew OVER the posted total...

...however, we have all lost a game here and a game there by a point or so which means that you gotta squeeze all the value that you can from a point spread selection when you can get it, sometimes that means wagering on a game early and other times that means waiting closer to game time for better value.

In this contest I believe that public perception will favor the Packers, who enter this contest fresh off back to back home losses to Carolina and Houston by a combined 7 points, over a Jag team that has tossed in the proverbial towel and quit on HC Jack Del Rio....at least that is what the media's "talking heads" are espousing to Joe Public.

I am ooohhhh soooooo close in placing a wager on the Jags and just might if the line moves to Jags +3 because unlike the idiots on ESPN I don't think the Jags have quit on the season at all and a gander at their stats bears this out...

...consider that fact that the Jags last four opponents were Chicago, Houston, Minny, and Tenn, these four teams have a combined win/loss record of 34-19 and three of those four teams are in playoff contention.

It certainly looks bad that the Jags have lost their last four straight outings and have also lost 6 of their last 7 games, and to think that in their last four losses alone the Jags were outscored by a 53 to 107 margin, meanwhile, the visiting Packers have lost three straight but their last two losses were by a combined 7 points...

...so who could possibly fault "Joe Public" for liking the Packers in this spot after briefly surveying the results of the Packers and Jags over each teams last few outings?

Ahhhhhh but perception is a funny thing as a deeer "look-see" reveals that although the Jags are 0-4 straight up and ATS in their last four games, they actually out-yards those foes (Chic, Hous, Minn, Tenn) by +52 yards overall and had a combined average TOP (time of possession) of 31.77 against them....

...meanwhile, the Packers are 1-3 straight up and ATS in their last four games which were against Houston, Carolina, New Orleans, and Minny, however, the Packers were out-yarded by a -274 difference and their opponents actually won the TOP battle on average as GB only held the ball for an average of 29.95 minutes.

Take note that the Packers and Jags each faced two common opponents over their last four games (Houston and Minny), oddly enough against these two common foes the Jags out-yarded Hous & Minny by a 709-552 margin (+157 yards) while the Packers LOST the yardage battle 571-910 for a HUGE yardage deficit of -339 yards.

The odds maker is not a stupid man, the stats I layed out above is the reason why the Packers are not a prohibitive favorite in this contest, he is BEGGING "Joe Public" to slap down the cash on the Packers...and they probably will.

The real difference over the last four weeks for each of these teams has in truth been the ole Turnover ratio as the Jags posted a -6 T/O while the Packers were +3 T/O....

...the ball bounces funny for everyone and obviously it hasn't bounced well for the Jags lately, but here's my point...

...the Jags actually out played their last four opponents in terms of total yardage and TOP but lost due to losing the T/O battle, meanwhile, the Packers went 1-3 straight up in their last 4 games but on average LOST both the yardage and TOP battle's in those four games including losses in their last two contests by a combined 7 points.

Nope, in my humble opinion the ole worm will turn in this contest as the Jags will find the endzone more often than the high powered Packer offense which is currently ranked #4 in the league in terms of average points scored per game (27.31) over a Jag team that season to date has averaged 19.31 points per game.
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Well, that's it for now as its currently 10:38 am Saturday morning and its time to read the morning paper and munch on a bowl of Tony the Tiger's frosted flakes..

I'll post another game or two later today or tonight and in all likelihood will post my final play or two Sunday morning.

Take care and be well my friends

Jim

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:think2:

Hello my friends..

That's weird, used to be able to edit a post if you realized you had made an error or wanted to add something...I guess no longer.

Anyway, I posted my analysis above on the Jags & Packers match up and really should of proof-read it first before hitting the ole submit button as I realized after re-reading my post that I had made a few typo's and had also forgot to plug in my usual "Key Stats" for the game...sooo here they are below.

Green Bay & Jags.....KEY STATS:

The Pack is 4-1 OVER this year when taking to the road and overall the Packers have gone OVER the total in 14 of their last 19 roadies, the total in GB games has also flown OVER the total 13 of the last 19 times when GB has been installed as a betting favorite...

...meanwhile, when it comes to playing the last four games of the regular season Jag games have gone OVER an amazing 8 of 9 times and when the Jags have squared up against NFC North competition that game has flown OVER the posted total 12 of 18 times.

Take care and be well

Jim

:howdy:

 

[indiana]

D.D.............

thank you for the info and plays,,,,g/l Sunday

indy

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

D.D.............

thank you for the info and plays,,,,g/l Sunday

indy

:howdy:

Hello indiana...

You are quite welcome my friend, and good luck to you on Sunday as well!!

Take care and be well..

Jim

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:

Hello my friends...

I started my last game analysis posting by saying that I was not going to be soooooooo long winded and would cut down on the analysis, what do I do?...I end up with ANOTHER long write-up!! Ughhhhh, I promise to do better....hopefully.

Thus far I have released Three 2 unit play selections and they are:

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Pittsburgh
Baltimore & Pittsburgh..........OVER 34
Jacksonville & Green Bay.......OVER 45.5

As stated above I will be adding selections and analysis on as I complete them and posting them in this same thread and in all likelihood I will be making 2 or possibly 3 more selections overall.

Take care and be well my friends..

Jim


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BUFFALO +7.5 over the Jets
Sunday 12/14/08 1:00 pm est
2**Unit Play Selection
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I will try to make this analysis short and sweet because its already 5:10 pm est and the wife is chirping at me to hurry up because we are going to a Christmas Party this evening...actually we are leaving in about 45 minutes so here we go!

This is the second same season meeting between these two divisional rivals, a peek backwards in time reveals that when these teams met earlier this year in Buffalo that the Bills were 5-2 straight up and 4-3 ATS, meanwhile, the New York "Bretts" entered the affair with an overall mark of 4-3 straight up and 3-4 ATS.

The line on that game closed with the hometown Bills installed as 5 point favorites, the end result however as a 9 point 26-17 Jet win, a check of the stats from that game reveals that these teams played a virtually even game with the Bills owning a 18 to 16 first down edge while the Jets ended up with a 297 to 292 yardage edge...

...the TOP (time of possession) was almost a dead heat as well with the Bills ending up with a slight 30:04 to 29:56 advantage, the difference in the contest was 3 turnovers on the Bills slate and only 1 on the Jets side of things.

Fast forward to the here and now and we see that both teams enter this contest having lost 2 straight games and going 0-2 ATS in those affairs, now riddle me this....what the Sam Hell is up with the line on this game?

....regardless of the first outcome between these two teams there is clear value on the Bills in this match up getting +7.5 points, why you ask?

Simple, if the line was Buffalo -5 in the first go-around, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to think that swapping home fields should produce a line of Jets -1......

....factor in the fact that the Jets won the first meeting (although the game stats were equal) and the line SHOULD be Jets -3, add another point or another point and a half because the Jets have been doing better than the Bills since their last meeting and the final line should be Jets -4 or possibly -4.5 at the most.

A check of what the point spread was the last two times the Bills visited the Meadowlands shows Jets -3 and Jets -4.5 which is EXACTLY where it should be for this contest....once again its all about perception...in this contest I guess we can call it the "Favre Factor".

Ole Brett has tossed 4 INT's in his last three outings while Buffalo QB's have only tossed ONE....the Buffalo coaching staff has now seen Brett up close and personal and will be able to game plan against him better this time around....an outright UPSET win by the Bills wouldn't surprise me any but hey, I'll take all those juicy points!!

Take care and be well..

Jim

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:

Hello my friends..

As mentioned in a previous posting my beautiful wife and I went to a Christmas party last night at the AC Club (Athletic club) here in the Pittsburgh Pa area.

I was primed for a night out but made one fatal mistake, I SHOULD of ate a light afternoon snack before hand at the house because on the way to the party (where we arrived at 6:30 pm) my wife says "Honey, I didn't eat today because I was Christmas shopping all day and I am pretty hungry, can we eat first as soon as we get there"?

Naturally I want to appease the wife and as already mentioned I was a little hungry as well so I agreed, after we arrived and made our "Hello rounds" and mingled a little...we ate...BAD MOVE!!

Because I ate first the beer just wasn't going down, now mind you we arrived at about 6:30 pm, at 8:30 pm I glanced down at my watch and I was STILL on my second beer, meanwhile, the wife was on her third beer...

...I said to the wife "Gee honey, you are going to drink me under the table tonight".

Sure enough she did as we ended up leaving around 10:30 pm and in those 4 hours I drank a total of THREE BEERS to her four beers...lesson learned, get your beer buzzzzzz on FIRST!!!!!

Anyway its Sunday morning about 9:51 and I am currently taking a gander at the line movements and will in all likelihood be posting one more game for the day.

As a side note I am DEFINATELY ruling out a play on the Dallas & Giants game after the latest news concerning the Terrel Owens saga in which he accused QB Romo and TE Whitten of conspiring to make their own plays and leave him out of the picture...

...the funny thing is that ESPN did a side by side comparison of how many balls got tossed to both Owens and Whitten from Romo this season and then they also did a comparison from 2006 to present, below is the link showing the results, man is Owens a HEAD CASE!!

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3764732

Alright, gots to go for now if I am going to finish my review of the line movements to date, speaking of "to date" below is the plays I have made thus far:

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Pittsburgh
Baltimore & Pittsburgh...................OVER 34
Jacksonville & Green Bay...............OVER 45.5
BUFFALO +7.5 over the Jets

Take care and be well my friends..

Jim

:wink:

 

[709]

I agree with you on the first 3 picks. I was leaning on the Buff too (by chasing them last few weeks, bad call!) and you convince me on this even thou i was scared and think twice because of 2 consecutive lost of Jets. What the heck, I ll take this lowly Buff one more time this week because of the only reason: Instate and div. rivalry.
Thank you and good luck to us today.
709

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

I agree with you on the first 3 picks. I was leaning on the Buff too (by chasing them last few weeks, bad call!) and you convince me on this even thou i was scared and think twice because of 2 consecutive lost of Jets. What the heck, I ll take this lowly Buff one more time this week because of the only reason: Instate and div. rivalry.
Thank you and good luck to us today.
709
<!-- / message -->

:howdy:

Hello 709..

Thanks for the reply, I was all set to fire in a parlay using Atlanta because I didn't want to pay the additional juice that went with getting the key number of 3...well that's all shot to hell now as TB Jeff Garcia has now been officially ruled out of the game which has caused the line to shoot up to Atlanta -4.5 to -5 depending on where you look.

Ohhhhhhhhh well, I am still looking at a couple of other games with regard to the line movement and will be posting another play selection very shortly.

Take care and good luck to the both of us today!!

Jim

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

%^_

Hello my friends...

Gotta make this one quick..I added onto my card the OVER 45 in the Tenny & Houston game, Houston is MUCH better than they were when these teams hooked up during week 2 of this season.

Gotta love the fact that Houston has gone OVER the total in 12 of their last 16 revenge games and equally love the fact that Houston has gone OVER the total in 14 of their last 17 games against divisional opponents.

Good luck to everyone!!

Jim

:smoker2: