%^_
Hello my friends..
I was fortunate enough to win my Monday Night 2** Parlay with the Carolina Panthers -3 coupled with the OVER 39 and since I had some time this morning I decided to take a gander at the upcoming game this Thursday that has New Orleans visiting Chicago.
What I found was quite interesting to say the least and has prompted me to make a play on this contest now instead of waiting closer to game time as I fully believe the current line of Chicago -3 (+102) and 44 will not remain the same for long.
_____________________________________________________________
New Orleans//Chicago...OVER 44
Thursday Night 12/11/08 8:15 pm est
2**Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________
Both teams enter this contest with identical 7-6 straight up records but the Saints have bagged more cash for their backers as they are 9-4 ATS while the Bears are 6-6-1 ATS.
If you like the Bears in this contest I would suggest waiting until closer to game time as the line is currently Chicago -3 (+102) and in my humble opinion the line will come down, if you like the Saints I would recommend jumping on New Orleans now before the line falls to Chicago -2.5 or possibly -2 by kickoff.
As for the total the O/U is currently 44 and I fully expect that number to rise to as high as 45.5 or possibly 46, the reason why is because "Joe Public" likes to bet predominately OVER and with the game time weather forecast of clear and temps in the low 20's there will be no reason for the public to bet the game any other way with regard to the posted total.
...afterall I am quite sure that the media pundits will point out again and again and again that Saint QB Drew Brees played in the Big 10 at Purdue and is used to these conditions.
The knee-jerk reaction of most of "Joe Public" will be to back the Bears in this contest because of the fact that the Saints are a dome team and of course this game will be played outdoors and on grass in cold temps.
Sharps on the other hand will as usual try to find value with the underdog which in this case is New Orleans. This will serve to hold the line steady for awhile leading up to the game but in the end I see more sharp money coming in on the Saints which will in effect cause the line to drop off the key number of -3 to -2.5 or possibly -2 by kickoff.
The truth of the matter is that these Saints enter this contest the hotter of these two teams as they are fresh off a huge 29-25 home win over the Falcons as a 3 point home favorite which means that they have now won 3 or their last 4 outings (4-0 ATS) with their only loss in this span an understandable 20-23 loss at Tampa as 4 point road doggies.
The Bears on the other hand also won last week at home 23-10 over the visiting Jags as 6.5 point home chalk but are only 2-2 straight up and ATS in their last four outings with both wins coming against teams that have essentially given up on the season (St Louis and Jags).
Meanwhile, the Bears two lastest losses came at Green bay and at Minny, a plausible argument could be made that both losses did occur on the road, however, a closer inspection shows that the Bears were outgunned by a combined 17-71 point margin in those two games which by the way were against divisional rivals.
The thought process here and the way most sharps will read this contest is by asking a simple question..."How in the world are you going to beat a visiting New Orleans team with the fire power they have when you can't even keep the game close against two divisional rivals that you should know very well as you play against them at least two times a season year in and year out?
Those looking for a valid arguement for wagering on Chicago in this affair could point to the fact that these two teams faced each other twice in 2007 with both games taking place in Chi-Town and both games won and covered by the Bears.
They met in a playoff game in Chicago on Jan 21st in a game that saw the Bears installed as 3 point home favs with a total of 42.5, when all was said and done the Bears won 39-14, a year ago this month on December 30 in a regular season game that took place in the windy city a rematch took place with the Bears closing as a 1 point favorite and the O/U set at an almost idenical 42...the end result was another stunning Bear win by the final of 33-25.
Sooooo, does all this add up to a play on the Bears? Maybe, maybe not as history shows that these Saints are a really shoddy 1-5 straight up and 3-3 ATS on the road this year but a slightly better 11-12 straight up and 14-9 ATS in their last 23 roadies.
Personally can't bring myself to make a wager on a Bears team that has been middle of the road so to speak when playing at home as evidenced by their 12-12 ATS record in their last 24 home games and a TERRIBLE mark of 1-3 straight up and ATS this year against teams with a winning record and that includes a shoddy mark of 0-3 straight up and 0-2-1 ATS against the three teams from the NFC South that the Bears have already faced this year.
Needless to say, in my humble opinion a wager on either of these two teams in this contest is a coin flip at best which leaves us with the O/U to take a look at and try to find some value with.
As mentioned above these two teams met twice in 2007 and both games easily flew OVER the posted total with combined tallies of 53 and 58, digging a little deeper we see that 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams has gone OVER and an even closer look-see at New Olreans shows that they are 5-0 to the OVER in their last five outings vs the NFC North and long term has gone OVER the total in 26 of their last 39 against teams from the NFC North.
The public perception of da'Bears is that they are a grind it out kinda team that plays good defense which couldn't be further from the truth as their supposed stellar defense has allowed 20 or more points in 9 of 13 games this year.
Meanwhile, the Bear offense equaled that mark in scoring 20 or more points in 9 of 13 outings this year which is the reason that the Bears are 4-2 to the OVER in six home games to date this year and long term have exceeded the posted total in 18 of their last 24 home games....needless to say I fully believe the way to cash a ticket in this contest is by playing the OVER.
KEY STATS:
Public perception is a funny thing as most "Joe Public" bettors assume that most dome teams play poorly when going outdoors and performing on grass, that perception has aided Saint backers as New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in their last six when playing on grass and has actually covered 12 of their last 19 ATS on the real stuff.
The Saints are a good team, but they are not a great team and especially so on defense as they have allowed 20 or more points in a staggering 11 of 13 contests this year and allowed 29 or more points seven times this year which is the very reason that these Saints have gone OVER the posted total 10 of the last 12 times they have faced a team with a winning record.
The icing on the provervial cake is the fact that New Orleans has gone OVER the total in 7 of their last 8 outings and OVER the posted total 16 of the last 22 times that the lines maker has them listed as a +/- 3 point favorite or a +/- 3 point doggie, amazingly enough Chicago has gone OVER the posted total in 6 of their last 7 contests when listed as a 3 point or less home favorite....yup, definately OVER for me!
Take care and be well my friends
Jim
:wink:
Hello my friends..
I was fortunate enough to win my Monday Night 2** Parlay with the Carolina Panthers -3 coupled with the OVER 39 and since I had some time this morning I decided to take a gander at the upcoming game this Thursday that has New Orleans visiting Chicago.
What I found was quite interesting to say the least and has prompted me to make a play on this contest now instead of waiting closer to game time as I fully believe the current line of Chicago -3 (+102) and 44 will not remain the same for long.
_____________________________________________________________
New Orleans//Chicago...OVER 44
Thursday Night 12/11/08 8:15 pm est
2**Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________
Both teams enter this contest with identical 7-6 straight up records but the Saints have bagged more cash for their backers as they are 9-4 ATS while the Bears are 6-6-1 ATS.
If you like the Bears in this contest I would suggest waiting until closer to game time as the line is currently Chicago -3 (+102) and in my humble opinion the line will come down, if you like the Saints I would recommend jumping on New Orleans now before the line falls to Chicago -2.5 or possibly -2 by kickoff.
As for the total the O/U is currently 44 and I fully expect that number to rise to as high as 45.5 or possibly 46, the reason why is because "Joe Public" likes to bet predominately OVER and with the game time weather forecast of clear and temps in the low 20's there will be no reason for the public to bet the game any other way with regard to the posted total.
...afterall I am quite sure that the media pundits will point out again and again and again that Saint QB Drew Brees played in the Big 10 at Purdue and is used to these conditions.
The knee-jerk reaction of most of "Joe Public" will be to back the Bears in this contest because of the fact that the Saints are a dome team and of course this game will be played outdoors and on grass in cold temps.
Sharps on the other hand will as usual try to find value with the underdog which in this case is New Orleans. This will serve to hold the line steady for awhile leading up to the game but in the end I see more sharp money coming in on the Saints which will in effect cause the line to drop off the key number of -3 to -2.5 or possibly -2 by kickoff.
The truth of the matter is that these Saints enter this contest the hotter of these two teams as they are fresh off a huge 29-25 home win over the Falcons as a 3 point home favorite which means that they have now won 3 or their last 4 outings (4-0 ATS) with their only loss in this span an understandable 20-23 loss at Tampa as 4 point road doggies.
The Bears on the other hand also won last week at home 23-10 over the visiting Jags as 6.5 point home chalk but are only 2-2 straight up and ATS in their last four outings with both wins coming against teams that have essentially given up on the season (St Louis and Jags).
Meanwhile, the Bears two lastest losses came at Green bay and at Minny, a plausible argument could be made that both losses did occur on the road, however, a closer inspection shows that the Bears were outgunned by a combined 17-71 point margin in those two games which by the way were against divisional rivals.
The thought process here and the way most sharps will read this contest is by asking a simple question..."How in the world are you going to beat a visiting New Orleans team with the fire power they have when you can't even keep the game close against two divisional rivals that you should know very well as you play against them at least two times a season year in and year out?
Those looking for a valid arguement for wagering on Chicago in this affair could point to the fact that these two teams faced each other twice in 2007 with both games taking place in Chi-Town and both games won and covered by the Bears.
They met in a playoff game in Chicago on Jan 21st in a game that saw the Bears installed as 3 point home favs with a total of 42.5, when all was said and done the Bears won 39-14, a year ago this month on December 30 in a regular season game that took place in the windy city a rematch took place with the Bears closing as a 1 point favorite and the O/U set at an almost idenical 42...the end result was another stunning Bear win by the final of 33-25.
Sooooo, does all this add up to a play on the Bears? Maybe, maybe not as history shows that these Saints are a really shoddy 1-5 straight up and 3-3 ATS on the road this year but a slightly better 11-12 straight up and 14-9 ATS in their last 23 roadies.
Personally can't bring myself to make a wager on a Bears team that has been middle of the road so to speak when playing at home as evidenced by their 12-12 ATS record in their last 24 home games and a TERRIBLE mark of 1-3 straight up and ATS this year against teams with a winning record and that includes a shoddy mark of 0-3 straight up and 0-2-1 ATS against the three teams from the NFC South that the Bears have already faced this year.
Needless to say, in my humble opinion a wager on either of these two teams in this contest is a coin flip at best which leaves us with the O/U to take a look at and try to find some value with.
As mentioned above these two teams met twice in 2007 and both games easily flew OVER the posted total with combined tallies of 53 and 58, digging a little deeper we see that 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams has gone OVER and an even closer look-see at New Olreans shows that they are 5-0 to the OVER in their last five outings vs the NFC North and long term has gone OVER the total in 26 of their last 39 against teams from the NFC North.
The public perception of da'Bears is that they are a grind it out kinda team that plays good defense which couldn't be further from the truth as their supposed stellar defense has allowed 20 or more points in 9 of 13 games this year.
Meanwhile, the Bear offense equaled that mark in scoring 20 or more points in 9 of 13 outings this year which is the reason that the Bears are 4-2 to the OVER in six home games to date this year and long term have exceeded the posted total in 18 of their last 24 home games....needless to say I fully believe the way to cash a ticket in this contest is by playing the OVER.
KEY STATS:
Public perception is a funny thing as most "Joe Public" bettors assume that most dome teams play poorly when going outdoors and performing on grass, that perception has aided Saint backers as New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in their last six when playing on grass and has actually covered 12 of their last 19 ATS on the real stuff.
The Saints are a good team, but they are not a great team and especially so on defense as they have allowed 20 or more points in a staggering 11 of 13 contests this year and allowed 29 or more points seven times this year which is the very reason that these Saints have gone OVER the posted total 10 of the last 12 times they have faced a team with a winning record.
The icing on the provervial cake is the fact that New Orleans has gone OVER the total in 7 of their last 8 outings and OVER the posted total 16 of the last 22 times that the lines maker has them listed as a +/- 3 point favorite or a +/- 3 point doggie, amazingly enough Chicago has gone OVER the posted total in 6 of their last 7 contests when listed as a 3 point or less home favorite....yup, definately OVER for me!
Take care and be well my friends
Jim
:wink:
hno:
