:howdy:
Hello my friends...
Another NFL season concludes and enters the ole history book when the winner is determined in Super Bowl XLIIl on Sunday Feb. 1, 2009 from Raymond James stadium in Tampa, Florida which is home to the Tampa Bay Bucs.
The NFL likes to schedule the Super Bowl to be played in warm weather cities so that the site itself is fan friendly, with that being said this will be the 14th Super Bowl played in the state of Florida and the 4th time overall that the Super game will be held in the city of Tampa.
As a side note, in the 13 prior Super Bowls played in Florida, the favorite has won 9 of the 13 games in straight up fashion but only posted a mark of 5-7-1 ATS in those games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals will represent the AFC and NFC respectively in this years’ season finale which will be the Steelers' seventh overall trip to the big game and their second trip to the Super bowl in four years as Pittsburgh's last visit was in Super Bowl XL when the Steelers defeated the Seattle Seahawks by a final of 21 -10 as a 5 point favorite.
This will be the first ever Super Bowl trip for the Arizona Cardinals in their long history which now leaves five remaining teams that have never been to the Super Bowl (Saints, Browns, Jaguars, Lions, Texans), oddly enough, this years Cardinal team is the first team since 1979 to win only 9 regular season games and yet still make the Super Bowl.
The last team to post only 9 regular season wins and yet make it to the Super Bowl was the 1979 L.A. Rams who in turn were installed as 10.5 point doggies against, "Drum roll please"...the Pittsburgh Steelers...when the smoke cleared the Steelers won that Super Bowl by a final of 31-19 and in six overall Super Bowl appearances Pittsburgh is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS.
Super Bowl Sunday continues to get bigger and bigger with regard to the amount of money wagered on the event and this year will be no different as an estimated $100 million will be legally wagered in Las Vegas and probably 1 to 1.5 times that amount at offshore outlets...
...amazingly enough, those totals do not include the bar/club pools in which you buy a square for anywhere from $5 to $200 or the office pools and certainly does not include the amount taken in by your friendly neighborhood bookie.
Some gamblers enter the final game on the plus side of the ledger while others enter the contest on the negative side of things, in either circumstance its never a smart move to wager more on the Super Bowl than you did on any normal game during the regular season and its definitely not a smart move to try to recoup past losses on a single game no matter how confident you feel in what the outcome will be, with that in mind its always a wise decision to keep your wagers on the Super Bowl relatively small.
Like any regular season NFL game it’s generally a good idea to know any and all past Super Bowl trends and history before actually breaking down the matchup itself, with that in mind this is the 43rd Championship Game and we've got some solid information to dissect, for example, did you know that the NFC holds a slim 22-20 straight up edge over the AFC or that the NFC has posted an overall mark of 22-17-3 ATS to date in the big game?
However, in the last twelve Super Bowls the AFC’s representative has posted a mark of 8-4 straight up and 6-4-2 ATS, the largest margin of victory for the NFC was a 45 point win by <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1:CITY w:st="on">San Francisco</ST1:CITY> over <ST1:CITY w:st="on">Denver</ST1:CITY> (55-10) as a 12 point favorite following the 1989 regular season while the largest margin of victory by the AFC was a 27 point win in Super Bowl XXXV when Baltimore crushed the Giants by a final of 34-7 as a three point favorite. As a side note, an eye opening 17 of the NFC’s 22 Super Bowl wins have been by double digit point margins.
Some think that one of the “safest” ways to bet on the Super Bowl is to make a “money-line” wager, in that regard a check of the ole history book reveals that the installed favorite has posted a mark of 29-13 straight up and 21-18-3 ATS, as you can see the installed favorite has won the contest straight up 69.05% of the time. However, you might want to keep this in mind, the higher seeded team in the past 13 Super Bowls has posted a mark of 1-10-2 ATS!
Anything can happen in this years’ Super Bowl, who knows, maybe the Cardinals will find a way to defeat Pittsburgh straight up, however, oddly enough there have been only eight games in Super Bowl history in which the favorite won the game in straight up fashion but failed to cash the ticket. The overall record of the straight up winning favorites is a phenomenal mark of 21-5-3 ATS.
It’s a safe assumption to make that Super Bowl winning teams in all likelihood also won the “stat wars” in those games as well, in that regard a little research revealed some really startling facts. For example, would you believe that the team that rushes for more yards owns a mark of 35-7 straight up and 31-8-3 ATS or for that matter that the team that averages more passing yards per attempt has posted an amazing mark of 37-5 straight up and 32-7-3 ATS?
Turnovers play a huge part in any game, however, turnovers are magnified that much more in the big game as history reveals that the team that wins the turnover battle has won 38 of the past 42 Super Bowls in straight up fashion (4 turnover ties) and posted a mark of 34-4 ATS in those games, meanwhile, the Super Bowl participant that wins the TOP (time of possession) battle has a remarkable record of 31-11 straight up and 29-10-3 ATS.
Here’s an eyebrow raiser for you, teams that win at least three of the above stat categories have posted a record of 36-1 straight up and 31-5-1 ATS, meanwhile, teams that managed to win all four of the listed stat categories have posted a lofty mark of 24-0 straight up and 22-1-1 ATS!
_____________________________________________________________________
PITTSBURGH -7 <ST1
LACE w:st="on"> over Arizona</ST1LACE> <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O></O>
Sunday 02/01/09 6:20 pm est<O> </O>
3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________________
I backed Arizona in each of their past three playoff games against the likes of Atlanta, Carolina, and Philadelphia and won lots of cash by doing so, my wallet is a little fatter these days as I also backed these Steelers in their two playoff games against San Diego and Baltimore with 5*****BEST BET'S in each case, however, in this contest the Cardinals are now matched up against Pittsburgh and its an ENTIRELY different animal.
While Tampa Bay is indeed a neutral site, it only figures that the Stadium will have way more Steeler backers than visa versa and in that regard when playing away from their home stadium the Cardinal offense has had troubles as a quick check of Arizona's seasonal record shows that six of the Cardinals seven losses were by 7 points or more and five of those seven overall losses took place AWAY from the friendly confines of Arizona.
We backed the Cards at home against Atlanta and the reason centered around the fact that the Falcons had a rookie QB and a rookie head coach and they were playing on the road at Arizona.
We backed the Cards on the road against the Panthers because of the fact that Carolina got beat up on the road against the Giants in an overtime affair and then expended ALOT of emotional energy in their 33-31 win at New Orleans prior to taking on the Cardinals, meanwhile, Arizona was on a huge emotional high after defeating Atlanta, meaning that one team was on an emotional uptick while the exact opposite was true of the other.
Last but certainly not least, we backed the Cardinals against Philly and the reason centered around the fact that Arizona had played pretty darn good at home in posting a mark of 7-2 straight up, meanwhile, the Eagles had posted a road mark of 5-4-1 straight up and were playing on the road AGAIN for a third straight week and were also on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span and were doing so after draining wins at Minnesota and at the G-men.
****None of the above mentioned elements that were in Arizona's favor in their three playoff wins will come into play in this years Super Bowl against Pittsburgh.
Alot of folks in the media are pointing to Pittsburgh's 20-24 home loss to the visiting Colts as a 3.5 point home favorite as an indictment of sorts that the Steelers can't handle a good passing attack, however, I really wouldn't use that game between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis as a barometer of things to come between Arizona and Pittsburgh in this Super Bowl.
This situation is TOTALLY different because when the Colts and Steelers hooked up, Pittsburgh was not in "must-win mode" as they were 6-2 straight up at the time, meanwhile, the Colts were indeed in "must-win mode" as they were 4-4 straight up at the time and needed a win in the worst way...
...a check backwards in time reveals that Pittsburgh was without the services of two key starters in that contest against the Colts as RB Willie Parker did not play nor did TE Health Miller...
...another factor that must be taken into consideration is that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger played against the Colts with a separated shoulder which in turn contributed to Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions.
Consider this, even with Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions Pittsburgh still won the stat wars against the Colts as the Steelers had more first downs 18 to 17, had more total yards 326 to 290 and won the TOP (time of possession) battle by a 34:05 to 25:55 margin.
Arizona's passing game is indeed ranked higher than that of the Colts as the Cardinals ranked #2 in the NFL in terms of passing yards gained per game while the Colts ranked #5 in this same category...
...however, when handicapping this years Super Bowl it must be taken into consideration that Arizona will face the best defense they will have seen all season long as Pittsburgh is ranked #1 in virtually every defensive category and also has the league's #1 defense in terms of passing yards allowed per game.
A quick glance at who the Cardinals have played this year reveals something quite startling and that is the fact that Arizona only played 7 teams (Philly twice) that had defenses ranked in the NFL's top 10 in passing defense and the Cardinals posted a record of 2-5 straight up and ATS in those games.
The "talking heads" in the media are making a big deal out of the fact that Card head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant HC and offensive line coach Russ Grimm were with the Steelers for a few years prior to moving on to Arizona, will it make a difference?
Who knows for sure, this much I do know and that is the fact that Whisenhunt was Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator and ole Ken is running the same base offense in Arizona that he ran in Pittsburgh, thusly, its probably almost a complete wash with regard to each team having roughly the same amount of insight into what the other team would like to accomplish and how they would like to go about it.
In the big picture Pittsburgh played a much tougher schedule, comes from a much tougher division, and plays in a much tougher conference than Arizona and the Steelers managed to come to Tampa with a record of 14-4 straight up.
When taking a peek at each teams SOS (strength of schedule) to start the season, which is based on how this seasons opponents did last year with regard to their final win/loss record, we were told by statisticians that the Pittsburgh Steelers had the toughest schedule of any team in the NFL over the past 30 plus years.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals started the 2008 season with the NFL's 21st ranked schedule, at the end of this years regular season a re-tabulation of the strength of schedule shows that Pittsburgh finished with the NFL's 4th toughest schedule while the Cardinals finished with the NFL's 22nd ranked schedule.
Thusly, Pittsburgh finished the regular season with the NFL's 4th hardest schedule and posted a record of 12-4 while Arizona finished the regular season with the NFL's 22nd hardest schedule and only won 9 games en-route to a 9-7 record.
The truth of the matter is that Arizona resides in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL and won their division based on a very shoddy mark of 9-7 straight up, a closer gander at the Cardinals record shows that 6 of their 9 wins came against divisional rivals that all had losing records (Seattle, St Louis and San Francisco).
My numbers and ratings have Pittsburgh winning this contest by somewhere between 14 and 17 points, as a side note, Arizona will be playing in their first ever Super Bowl, a check backwards in time reveals that teams playing in their first ever Super Bowl have FAILED to cover 11 of 16 games ATS when matched up against an opponent that has been to the Super Bowl.
KEY STATS:
This Pittsburgh Steeler defense has held 16 of their last 18 opponents to 21 or less points, which is a good thing to know as the old history book reveals that Super Bowl teams held under 20 points have posted an eye opening mark of 0-24 straight up and 3-20-1 ATS.
Those that like “System Plays” might like to know that the following system has posted an eye-opening mark of 21-6-1 ATS in the 28 Super Bowls that fit the system, simply go thru the steps until it picks a team for you to back:
STEP ONE: Go against any team that did not cover the posted point spread in their AFC or NFC Championship game.
STEP TWO: If both teams covered the point spread in their respective AFC or NFC Championship game, wager on the team with the most straight up wins heading into the Super Bowl, this includes all playoff wins.<O></O>..Play on Pittsburgh.
STEP THREE: If the total number of seasonal wins to date including playoffs is equal, wager on the doggie.
<O></O>
<O>Take care and be well my friends</O>
<O></O>
<O>Dirtydog</O>
<O></O>
<O>:wink:
</O>
Hello my friends...
Another NFL season concludes and enters the ole history book when the winner is determined in Super Bowl XLIIl on Sunday Feb. 1, 2009 from Raymond James stadium in Tampa, Florida which is home to the Tampa Bay Bucs.
The NFL likes to schedule the Super Bowl to be played in warm weather cities so that the site itself is fan friendly, with that being said this will be the 14th Super Bowl played in the state of Florida and the 4th time overall that the Super game will be held in the city of Tampa.
As a side note, in the 13 prior Super Bowls played in Florida, the favorite has won 9 of the 13 games in straight up fashion but only posted a mark of 5-7-1 ATS in those games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals will represent the AFC and NFC respectively in this years’ season finale which will be the Steelers' seventh overall trip to the big game and their second trip to the Super bowl in four years as Pittsburgh's last visit was in Super Bowl XL when the Steelers defeated the Seattle Seahawks by a final of 21 -10 as a 5 point favorite.
This will be the first ever Super Bowl trip for the Arizona Cardinals in their long history which now leaves five remaining teams that have never been to the Super Bowl (Saints, Browns, Jaguars, Lions, Texans), oddly enough, this years Cardinal team is the first team since 1979 to win only 9 regular season games and yet still make the Super Bowl.
The last team to post only 9 regular season wins and yet make it to the Super Bowl was the 1979 L.A. Rams who in turn were installed as 10.5 point doggies against, "Drum roll please"...the Pittsburgh Steelers...when the smoke cleared the Steelers won that Super Bowl by a final of 31-19 and in six overall Super Bowl appearances Pittsburgh is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS.
Super Bowl Sunday continues to get bigger and bigger with regard to the amount of money wagered on the event and this year will be no different as an estimated $100 million will be legally wagered in Las Vegas and probably 1 to 1.5 times that amount at offshore outlets...
...amazingly enough, those totals do not include the bar/club pools in which you buy a square for anywhere from $5 to $200 or the office pools and certainly does not include the amount taken in by your friendly neighborhood bookie.
Some gamblers enter the final game on the plus side of the ledger while others enter the contest on the negative side of things, in either circumstance its never a smart move to wager more on the Super Bowl than you did on any normal game during the regular season and its definitely not a smart move to try to recoup past losses on a single game no matter how confident you feel in what the outcome will be, with that in mind its always a wise decision to keep your wagers on the Super Bowl relatively small.
Like any regular season NFL game it’s generally a good idea to know any and all past Super Bowl trends and history before actually breaking down the matchup itself, with that in mind this is the 43rd Championship Game and we've got some solid information to dissect, for example, did you know that the NFC holds a slim 22-20 straight up edge over the AFC or that the NFC has posted an overall mark of 22-17-3 ATS to date in the big game?
However, in the last twelve Super Bowls the AFC’s representative has posted a mark of 8-4 straight up and 6-4-2 ATS, the largest margin of victory for the NFC was a 45 point win by <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1:CITY w:st="on">San Francisco</ST1:CITY> over <ST1:CITY w:st="on">Denver</ST1:CITY> (55-10) as a 12 point favorite following the 1989 regular season while the largest margin of victory by the AFC was a 27 point win in Super Bowl XXXV when Baltimore crushed the Giants by a final of 34-7 as a three point favorite. As a side note, an eye opening 17 of the NFC’s 22 Super Bowl wins have been by double digit point margins.
Some think that one of the “safest” ways to bet on the Super Bowl is to make a “money-line” wager, in that regard a check of the ole history book reveals that the installed favorite has posted a mark of 29-13 straight up and 21-18-3 ATS, as you can see the installed favorite has won the contest straight up 69.05% of the time. However, you might want to keep this in mind, the higher seeded team in the past 13 Super Bowls has posted a mark of 1-10-2 ATS!
Anything can happen in this years’ Super Bowl, who knows, maybe the Cardinals will find a way to defeat Pittsburgh straight up, however, oddly enough there have been only eight games in Super Bowl history in which the favorite won the game in straight up fashion but failed to cash the ticket. The overall record of the straight up winning favorites is a phenomenal mark of 21-5-3 ATS.
It’s a safe assumption to make that Super Bowl winning teams in all likelihood also won the “stat wars” in those games as well, in that regard a little research revealed some really startling facts. For example, would you believe that the team that rushes for more yards owns a mark of 35-7 straight up and 31-8-3 ATS or for that matter that the team that averages more passing yards per attempt has posted an amazing mark of 37-5 straight up and 32-7-3 ATS?
Turnovers play a huge part in any game, however, turnovers are magnified that much more in the big game as history reveals that the team that wins the turnover battle has won 38 of the past 42 Super Bowls in straight up fashion (4 turnover ties) and posted a mark of 34-4 ATS in those games, meanwhile, the Super Bowl participant that wins the TOP (time of possession) battle has a remarkable record of 31-11 straight up and 29-10-3 ATS.
Here’s an eyebrow raiser for you, teams that win at least three of the above stat categories have posted a record of 36-1 straight up and 31-5-1 ATS, meanwhile, teams that managed to win all four of the listed stat categories have posted a lofty mark of 24-0 straight up and 22-1-1 ATS!
_____________________________________________________________________
PITTSBURGH -7 <ST1
LACE w:st="on"> over Arizona</ST1LACE> <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O></O>Sunday 02/01/09 6:20 pm est<O
> </O>3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________________
I backed Arizona in each of their past three playoff games against the likes of Atlanta, Carolina, and Philadelphia and won lots of cash by doing so, my wallet is a little fatter these days as I also backed these Steelers in their two playoff games against San Diego and Baltimore with 5*****BEST BET'S in each case, however, in this contest the Cardinals are now matched up against Pittsburgh and its an ENTIRELY different animal.
While Tampa Bay is indeed a neutral site, it only figures that the Stadium will have way more Steeler backers than visa versa and in that regard when playing away from their home stadium the Cardinal offense has had troubles as a quick check of Arizona's seasonal record shows that six of the Cardinals seven losses were by 7 points or more and five of those seven overall losses took place AWAY from the friendly confines of Arizona.
We backed the Cards at home against Atlanta and the reason centered around the fact that the Falcons had a rookie QB and a rookie head coach and they were playing on the road at Arizona.
We backed the Cards on the road against the Panthers because of the fact that Carolina got beat up on the road against the Giants in an overtime affair and then expended ALOT of emotional energy in their 33-31 win at New Orleans prior to taking on the Cardinals, meanwhile, Arizona was on a huge emotional high after defeating Atlanta, meaning that one team was on an emotional uptick while the exact opposite was true of the other.
Last but certainly not least, we backed the Cardinals against Philly and the reason centered around the fact that Arizona had played pretty darn good at home in posting a mark of 7-2 straight up, meanwhile, the Eagles had posted a road mark of 5-4-1 straight up and were playing on the road AGAIN for a third straight week and were also on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span and were doing so after draining wins at Minnesota and at the G-men.
****None of the above mentioned elements that were in Arizona's favor in their three playoff wins will come into play in this years Super Bowl against Pittsburgh.
Alot of folks in the media are pointing to Pittsburgh's 20-24 home loss to the visiting Colts as a 3.5 point home favorite as an indictment of sorts that the Steelers can't handle a good passing attack, however, I really wouldn't use that game between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis as a barometer of things to come between Arizona and Pittsburgh in this Super Bowl.
This situation is TOTALLY different because when the Colts and Steelers hooked up, Pittsburgh was not in "must-win mode" as they were 6-2 straight up at the time, meanwhile, the Colts were indeed in "must-win mode" as they were 4-4 straight up at the time and needed a win in the worst way...
...a check backwards in time reveals that Pittsburgh was without the services of two key starters in that contest against the Colts as RB Willie Parker did not play nor did TE Health Miller...
...another factor that must be taken into consideration is that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger played against the Colts with a separated shoulder which in turn contributed to Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions.
Consider this, even with Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions Pittsburgh still won the stat wars against the Colts as the Steelers had more first downs 18 to 17, had more total yards 326 to 290 and won the TOP (time of possession) battle by a 34:05 to 25:55 margin.
Arizona's passing game is indeed ranked higher than that of the Colts as the Cardinals ranked #2 in the NFL in terms of passing yards gained per game while the Colts ranked #5 in this same category...
...however, when handicapping this years Super Bowl it must be taken into consideration that Arizona will face the best defense they will have seen all season long as Pittsburgh is ranked #1 in virtually every defensive category and also has the league's #1 defense in terms of passing yards allowed per game.
A quick glance at who the Cardinals have played this year reveals something quite startling and that is the fact that Arizona only played 7 teams (Philly twice) that had defenses ranked in the NFL's top 10 in passing defense and the Cardinals posted a record of 2-5 straight up and ATS in those games.
The "talking heads" in the media are making a big deal out of the fact that Card head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant HC and offensive line coach Russ Grimm were with the Steelers for a few years prior to moving on to Arizona, will it make a difference?
Who knows for sure, this much I do know and that is the fact that Whisenhunt was Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator and ole Ken is running the same base offense in Arizona that he ran in Pittsburgh, thusly, its probably almost a complete wash with regard to each team having roughly the same amount of insight into what the other team would like to accomplish and how they would like to go about it.
In the big picture Pittsburgh played a much tougher schedule, comes from a much tougher division, and plays in a much tougher conference than Arizona and the Steelers managed to come to Tampa with a record of 14-4 straight up.
When taking a peek at each teams SOS (strength of schedule) to start the season, which is based on how this seasons opponents did last year with regard to their final win/loss record, we were told by statisticians that the Pittsburgh Steelers had the toughest schedule of any team in the NFL over the past 30 plus years.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals started the 2008 season with the NFL's 21st ranked schedule, at the end of this years regular season a re-tabulation of the strength of schedule shows that Pittsburgh finished with the NFL's 4th toughest schedule while the Cardinals finished with the NFL's 22nd ranked schedule.
Thusly, Pittsburgh finished the regular season with the NFL's 4th hardest schedule and posted a record of 12-4 while Arizona finished the regular season with the NFL's 22nd hardest schedule and only won 9 games en-route to a 9-7 record.
The truth of the matter is that Arizona resides in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL and won their division based on a very shoddy mark of 9-7 straight up, a closer gander at the Cardinals record shows that 6 of their 9 wins came against divisional rivals that all had losing records (Seattle, St Louis and San Francisco).
My numbers and ratings have Pittsburgh winning this contest by somewhere between 14 and 17 points, as a side note, Arizona will be playing in their first ever Super Bowl, a check backwards in time reveals that teams playing in their first ever Super Bowl have FAILED to cover 11 of 16 games ATS when matched up against an opponent that has been to the Super Bowl.
KEY STATS:
This Pittsburgh Steeler defense has held 16 of their last 18 opponents to 21 or less points, which is a good thing to know as the old history book reveals that Super Bowl teams held under 20 points have posted an eye opening mark of 0-24 straight up and 3-20-1 ATS.
Those that like “System Plays” might like to know that the following system has posted an eye-opening mark of 21-6-1 ATS in the 28 Super Bowls that fit the system, simply go thru the steps until it picks a team for you to back:
STEP ONE: Go against any team that did not cover the posted point spread in their AFC or NFC Championship game.
STEP TWO: If both teams covered the point spread in their respective AFC or NFC Championship game, wager on the team with the most straight up wins heading into the Super Bowl, this includes all playoff wins.<O
></O>..Play on Pittsburgh.STEP THREE: If the total number of seasonal wins to date including playoffs is equal, wager on the doggie.
<O
></O> <O
>Take care and be well my friends</O><O
></O> <O
>Dirtydog</O><O
></O> <O
>:wink:</O
>
lace w:st="on"> over Arizona</st1
but dammit I wanted to pull for Az just because of the UD thing and if they cover when I have my $$ on Pitt I will be angry at myself. So I should just prolly lay off and make it a no play...ha ha how stupid, IT"S THE SUPERBOWL!!!...I gotta play it. I'll just silently have $$ on Pitt cause my wife thinks I'm always opposed to what everyone else around my area is pulling for. (she knows zero about gambling) AND if Az covers it will only be a normal amount lost and I can still be happy for them. 
