I give Diaz little chance of winning the fight, but I don't think Pac gets the stoppage. Even though Diaz is outclassed by a wide margin, Manny moving up in weight yet again is the reason for the line being what it is, although I don't necessarily think the number is cheap considering he's never sniffed 135. It's asking a lot for Pac to carry his power all the way up to 135 lbs. against an opponent who's fought as high as 147. Diaz has been quite durable and is the much bigger guy. Pac's speed will give Diaz fits and I think he'll outpoint him with relative ease, but I don't anticipate a stoppage.
Pac by decision currently +250, which I think is a very generous price.