Dial's Soccer

[DialSquares]

1-2 start -67 units. Missed penalty ruined a chance for a winning day but a lost is a lost.

Germany Bundesliga II
Ahlen v FC Ingolstadt
over 2.5 -137 stanjames
both teams hitting well over 50% overs. Ahlen 69% and FC Ingolstadt 77%. However, Ingolstadt only 50% on the road so there is some caution.

Alemania Aachen v VfL Osnabruck
Aachen AH-1 -125 bet365
very strong home team v very weak road team usually works well. Will always need help to find that 2nd goal for a winning bet. Aachen beat Koblenz 2-0 at home recently and although it might mean little is a positive sign for this game. Form and home record should give this bet a shot.

Germany 3. liga
Jahn Regensburg v Union Berlin
over 2.5 -125 stanjames
FT score 1-1 +550 to score the over bet
same odds for a union win but i think regensburgh can manage a goal here. Hopefully a 2-1 Berlin win but covering the dreaded 1-1 scoreline.

---adding more later I imagine. Good luck today everyone.

 

[DialSquares]

luck was on my side today...someone remind me of the luck when I complain about a 90th minute down 2 man tieing goal later on this year.

88th minute goal for the ahlen over
89th minute and 90+3 minute stoppage for aachen win.

I just said a small prayer to the soccer gods for these.

Already beggin for more from them and a Regensburg goal early second half

 

[MonsterBuck]

That Aachen cover made my day :toast:

 

[DialSquares]

i had given up and thought I was done of this forum before I got going...haha

adding:
Coca-Cola League Championship
Swansea v Birmingham
Birmingham AH0 +105 bet365 - better odds out there
very small - James McFadden to score anytime +225

Swansea AH0 is probably the smarter play but being friday and swansea yet to lose at home I think today might be the day. :think2:Tough game really to predict.

 

[DialSquares]

4-3 +73 - only lost today was the over in the Jahn Regensburg game and they missed 2 penalties. If teams would score on the PKs i'd be crushing the book. See already forgot about the german II luck.

Just not feeling well enough to look at 1000 games tonight but a season long play is early tomorrow.

Germany 3.Liga
Stuttgarter Kickers v Carl Zeiss Jena
Over 2.5, 3 -105
I've decided at the beginning (and really for over two years) to bet jena over on the road until it starts losing. 5W 2L so far.

Paderborn 07 v Aalen VfR
Paderborn 07 AH-1 -115
odds are short for a straight paderborn win so going to root for a 2 goal win in order for the bigger odds. Fortuna and Union winning Friday should give that extra motivation for paderborn. Aalen middle of the table team who seems to play for draws and did lose 3-0 to union earlier.

3 teamer
German I
Shalke
Munich
Koln/Hoffenheim over 2 goals
pays -121 or -169 if there is 2 goals in koln.

 

[chriscol]

Dial, i like your plays for today, especially the Jena over (but not for Jena more because of Kickers involved).
you seem to have lot of knowledge about german football. did you live here or are you just following german leagues?

 

[DialSquares]

i live in Canada but I am learning to speak German and would like to work in Germany once I feel comfortable speaking the language. I studied philosophy in university and was always loved the german thinkers. I find German II and now III to be the more predictible leagues as well as the lower divisions in England. And I am a big fan of goals so German football (I like Holland too) is perfect. And since Canada is so brutal in men's soccer, I do cheer for Germany on the international front.

I was thinking Wolfsburgh as well and see you're on them. So I am on them too

GL today.

 

[DialSquares]

adding:
Coca-Cola League Championship
Burnley v Doncaster
Burnley AH-1 +105

Reading v Southampton
Reading AH -1 -1.5 -125

Wolverhampton v Blackpool
Wolves AH -1 -121

I thought about parlaying the three teams instead but i figure one of the three will draw/lose. All three home teams are stong and in great form playing against weak opponents with poor form. Similarily, home record v away favours the home side except blackpool seem to be great on the road. But Wolves being a serious title contender it is one of those games they should win. Blackpool already lost to Cardiff and Burnley 2-0 on the road. Hoping to hit 2 out of 3 really.

Coca-Cola League One
Walsall v Milton Keynes Donsover 2.5 -125
FT score 1-1 +600 to cover the over bet.
Milton Keynes Dons AH0 -130 (as high as -125 but i don't have betinternet account)
Walsall 67% overs and MK Dons 75%. At home, Walsall 6 overs 1 under and MK on the road 6 overs and 2 unders. H2h doesn't yield many overs with only 1 over in past 7 matches in walsall. I think MK 2-1 winner based on form and MK's great road record. 1-1 final pushes it all.

was tempted with Peterborough and newcastle +2 at -134 seems like a gift to me but both are no plays for me.

Usually i bet more on saturday but I got a non-booze related headache and the screen is killing me. GL today - big day - where's my coffee?

 

[JohnMolson]

Damn Reading going to blow my -1.5 .Bastards hno:

 

[DialSquares]

I don't think burnley had a goal in them even without the red card. And Reading took the money today,..hahah..j.k i don't buy conspiracy but a bit of a shocking result. Got worried with the first Cottbus goal - haha. A lot of goals today in German I. 5-2 day or 7-2 if i played the last two that i liked. Oh well.......

anyone like the Madrid/Villarreal double. I don't like betting spanish big teams because in the end you lose money but looking for a little more action. Seems like the rest of europe is snow/rain and so i don't like betting because i know nothing about pitch conditions, etc...

 

[JohnMolson]

nice job today.Those Reading rejects really fvked ushno:.

 

[JohnMolson]

Hope you stayed away from those Villareal jerkoffs.uke1:

 

[DialSquares]

yeah - i was glad no one said "Go for it" because i would have. But I tend to avoid betting for teams that play midweek Uefa games because it is hard to tell whether their heads will be in it.

perhaps that is reason for some of the results in the EPL esp liverpool and chelsea

 

[chriscol]

yeah - i was glad no one said "Go for it" because i would have. But I tend to avoid betting for teams that play midweek Uefa games because it is hard to tell whether their heads will be in it.

perhaps that is reason for some of the results in the EPL esp liverpool and chelsea

i once tried to play against the teams of the big leagues (Spain, Germany, England, Italy) in their domestic league the weekend before champ league. on the asian hdc. the results were decent....not great that i kept it, but it s definetely a factor to consider at least not taking these teams and maybe staying away

today Real, Villareal, Manu,Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal did not cover. Only Florenz and München have covered their hdc.

 

[DialSquares]

9-4 +267.

Interesting info there chriscol - avoiding roma/atletico/barca/etc... Going by today maybe betting against them in the AH might be the play. Look closer tomorrow (for me).

German II
SC Freiburg AH-1.5 +101
definitely taken a chance here. It is hard to imagine freiburgh losing/drawing here...the trick will be getting them to score the 2nd goal. Past 3 home wins for frieburgh have been 2+ goal winners including a 5-0 thumping against Wehen. Past 6 games, koblenz 2 goals for and 17 against. Frieburg's form not the greatest 3-0-3 but the three losses 2 on the road and 1 to leaders mainz. Considering betting the 1-0 scoreline to cover the bet but will probably decide that in-play. When i bet 1-0 0-0 scores the other team scores in the first 5 mins.

Wehen v Oberhausen
over 2.5 -133
Ft/Ht Oberhausen/Wehen +2800
Ft/Ht Oberhausen/Draw +1400 - both these very small

Oberhausen 5 overs and 1 under on the road. Wehen not a great over team but decent at home with 4 overs and 2 unders. Both teams having a bit of a scoring drought and i am hoping meeting each other will change that. As for the 2 small bets, here's my thinking (and remember i went small ) Oberhausen #1 in 1st half overs and 5O-1U in 1.5 over 1st half. Wehen 10th in first half and 3O-3U in the 1st. Conversely Wehen 9th in 2nd half (4O 2U at home in the 2nd) and Oberhausen is 16th in 2nd half overs with 2 overs and 4 unders on the road. So it seems oberhausen has more goals in the 1st and wehen more in the 2nd. That doens't necessarily mean they score more, it could be they give up more goals so the theory may be shot. If I had more time to confirm the stats (which i will do in the future) i'd bet it more but this is more of a throw a dart at a play pick. The over is the main play.

there will be more wackiness in the future.

no betting involving tottenham until there is more consistency.

GL tomorrow/today and sorry for the length

 

[chriscol]

i enjoy reading your picks as you see most of the things in german football similar to me..GL today

 

[DialSquares]

can i blame the snow today in germany? hno:

my italian picks would have been just as bad so i am glad i didn't post or play them..haha...

For weeks now i've been overs in the 11:00am (my time) Spanish soccer games. Generally the odds have been above money so only need 2 out of 4 for the profit. Today most of the odds are above even so it has me worried. Today being above even playing all 5 over with an over 2. I am playing them until they lose...first time posting them (never did it at my old forum either) so hopefully it doesn't come back against me. No reasoning/stats/etc... just a hunch play i guess. So today:

Mallorca v Malaga
over 2.5 -111 (-105 in some places)

Numancia v Atletico Madrid
over 2.5 -108

Sporting Gijon v Real Betis
over 2.5 -110

Osasuna v Almeria
over 2 -121

Racing Santander v Espanyol
Over 2, 2.5 -103

---
thinking of just playing the draw in the bundelsiga match - chriscol any thoughts? didn't see it posted in your thread.

 

[DialSquares]

1 goal short of 5 overs in spain. I can't explain why it works but it has been very good for me. Thinking the midweek games might affect two more teams (at least I hope so)

France Le Championnat
Marseille v Lille
Lille +0.5 -103

Italy Serie A
Torino v AC Milan
Torino +0.5, +1 -105

not fully convinced so betting 1/2 normal stakes but i'll win or lose i'll count it the same for my record. Esp if it wins :lolBIG:

(both favs with tricky midweek games)

 

[DialSquares]

bit lucky with the torino penalty but it was looking like they deserved a goal. Should have added barcelona and ateltico i guess. Something to look at next time chriscol.

15-6 +514 or something close to that

monday is draw day for me (don't ask why) so hopefully we can find a couple or 6 tomorrow.

 

[chriscol]

bit lucky with the torino penalty but it was looking like they deserved a goal. Should have added barcelona and ateltico i guess. Something to look at next time chriscol.

.

it would have been an amazing weekend fading all ChampLeague teams
winner: Munich, Roma, Florenz

loosers: Bremen,Arsenal, Chelsea,ManU,Liverpool, Real,Barca, Atletico,Villarreal

Inter played Juve