Derby Thread

[JudgeWapner]

Let's start off with an over view of each horse. If anyone knows of a horse that is out let me know. Feel free to jump in with info, opinions etc.
*Bellamy Road. The likely favorite. The biggest question is, is the 120 speed fig legit. I have a tough time believing it. But even if it was 110, would be the fastest race of any horse here. Also note that the fractions were legit it that race. Didn't appear to be pressed however. Also now sure how good the rest of the field was in the Wood. Looks pretty soft. But this race was no flukie. His 2nd back was also a very strong race. Seems to be a different horse since Zito got hold of him. Was lightly raced at 2, which fits winner's profile. Dosage of 3.50 also fits. Has one decent work over strip. Castellano up does not excite me. Did he run too fast in the Wood? Will he bounce? He on paper seems to be a one dimesional horse who wants the lead.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Sun King-A horse not without talent. Seems headed in wrong direction as indicated by recent speed figs. Lifetime best is 104.Ran 7-8 wide last out. Another Zito horse. How many does he have here??? Has turned in one so-so work at CD and one piss poor one. Dosage 3.00. Horse has tactical speed which is usually an asset in the Derby. Nicely bred. Think he won't have a problem with the distance.

 

[JudgeWapner]

High Limit-Frankel trained, always a plus. Best speed fig is 105. Decent works at CD. Ran a nice race in BG but wasn't fast enough.Front ender all the way.Lightly raced so should have room for improvement.Dosage 2.50 which works.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Bandini- prob 2nd fav here. Ran a nice race in BG, and seemed to have plenty left. Best speed fig is 103. Has tactical speed. Was beat by High Fly in FOY. Personally I think the BG had a tough field and the 103 may actually be a little low. Nice progression in speed figs. Steady improvement. Pletcher and Velazquez a plus. Dosage is 3.57. Never ran over CD strip. Only one race at 2. Has 3 races at 1 and 1/8. Seems to be peaking at right time.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Consolidator- Had excuse last out in BG. Ran a lifetime best 105 at SA 2 back.Outside of the 105 not much to get excited about.Also has tactical speed. Not very consistent. Haven't seen a dosage on him yet. Lukas has not done much in the big races lately. Not excited about jock possibilities either.Does have 2 races and 2 works at CD. A definate plus.Alot of races at 2, which ain't a good thing.

 

[wilheim]

Great thread thanks Judge.


wil.

I will chime in later.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Wil, cool. Always value your opinion on the ponies.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Afleet Alex- Very clasy horse.Has run in many quality races. Also has tactical speed. Has broken 100 3 times, his best being last race at 108. Second best speed fig in field. Should be in top 4 in the betting. Only one bad race in entire carreer. Not sure who he beat in Ark Derb, but won handily. dosage 2.11, should love the distance. connections are questionable. Also many races at 2.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Blues and Royals- Unknown quantity here. Coming from England and Saudi Arabia. Tough to ship that far for this race.Second tier tactical speed.Only one prep race which is alos a concern. A nicely bred talented colt, but they are asking alot. Monster race in UAE Derby.

 

[UWinSports]

Blues and Royals- Unknown quantity here. Coming from England and Saudi Arabia. Tough to ship that far for this race.Second tier tactical speed.Only one prep race which is alos a concern. A nicely bred talented colt, but they are asking alot. Monster race in UAE Derby.

He is already declared out

 

[JudgeWapner]

Thanks U. Any others?

 

[Dante]

thanks Judge!!!! I am leaning to bandini to win the derby am I outside my mind sir?

 

[JudgeWapner]

Dante, not at all. Should have a shot. Hard to tell much yet without exact field and posts, but he is a legit horse.

 

[royalfan]

Great stuff Judge. Thanks a bunch.

 

[JudgeWapner]

RF, no problem, just getting warmed up.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Wilko- Juv winner and we know what that means. Highest speed fig is 98.Dosage 7.00 which sucks.Seems to be rounding back into form. West Coast horses may not be that great a group this year.Never run at CD.Obviously has some talent. How much? Who knows. Distance may be a problem. Somewhere between Tactical and closer, which may be a good spot in this race.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Buzzard"s Bay- ran lifetime best 98 in SA Derb. Before that, not much. Had lead most of the way. One of the few horses here that has shown versatility in running style.Not sure about breeding. Also never ran at CD. Has been running continuosly since 2 without a break. Don't like that. don't have dosage figure on him.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Flower Alley- Interesting horse. Best speed fig is 95, last out. Only has 4 races and has improved with each outing. Should move forward. May be a little green for a race like this. Could see him making noise latter in the year. Another Pletcher horse. Has tactical speed.Never ran at CD.Will be a huge price.Like I said, interesting.More tomorrow.

 

[kermit16]

thanks Judge!!!! I am leaning to bandini to win the derby am I outside my mind sir?

What's the best odds you have seen on Bandini ? I got + 600 at Coast Casino here in Vegas

 

[JudgeWapner]

Kermit, sounds about right, prob a little better than you will get on race day.