Derby line up…

[skoda]

19 Days​

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures​

HORSE	ODDS	PROJECTION
Journalism	3-1	SEE PICKS
Sandman	8-1	SEE PICKS
Sovereignty	8-1	SEE PICKS
Rodriguez	10-1	SEE PICKS
Tappan Street	10-1	SEE PICKS
Burnham Square	15-1	SEE PICKS
Luxor Cafe	15-1	SEE PICKS
Citizen Bull	20-1	SEE PICKS
East Avenue	20-1	SEE PICKS
Grande	20-1	SEE PICKS
River Thames	20-1	SEE PICKS
Tiztastic	20-1	SEE PICKS
American Promise	30-1	SEE PICKS
Chunk of Gold	30-1	SEE PICKS
Coal Battle	30-1	SEE PICKS
Final Gambit	30-1	SEE PICKS
Publisher	30-1	SEE PICKS
Admire Daytona	50-1	SEE PICKS
Flood Zone	50-1	SEE PICKS
Flying Mohawk	50-1	SEE PICKS

 

[skoda]

18 Days and maybe we will see a .50 like this…
TRIFECTA
10/11/3
$37,513.85

 

[skoda]

17 Days Till Derby and 16 till Ladies Day

Will DJT say Riders Up…. Kinda doubt it butt…. He does go to a lot of Big Sporting events? However or whatever the fastest 2 minutes in sports brings a lot out to try to pick the winner so let’s all use DJT Birthday 614 and try a superfecta for 10 cent with his year of birth 1946.

Most try to handicap others play #’s or use color of horse and some trainer/jockey or Beyer Figure! I’ll Key the Beyer on top in a few Triples. The Beyer hits the board 90% of the time or was it wins?

16 Days till the Oaks

 

[skoda]

16 Days till Derby…

Grace Potter to sing national anthem, Simone Biles to serve as Riders Up announcer at KY Derby​

Should there be a scratch….


Next four in the field (ordered by points):

Built, 50-1. Hard Spun – Wayne Catalano / TBD - 45, 5th Louisiana Derby (G2), 92 - 6: 2-1-2, $244,204.

Neoequos, 50-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Edgard Zayas - 40, 3rd Florida Derby, 91 - 7: 2-2-2, $291,050.

Render Judgment, 50-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Sheldon Russell - 39, 5th Blue Grass, 90 - 7: 1-2-1, $250,672.

Baeza, 15-1. McKinzie – John Shirreffs / Hector Berrios – 37.5, 2nd Santa Anita Derby (G1), 101 - 4: 1-2-0, $148,500

 

[Melniko]

Don't sleep on Luxor Cafe...

 

[skoda]

Don't sleep on Luxor Cafe...

BOL

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Kentucky_Derby_2025_Early_full_field_odds_and_analysis_123

My (Name) Vote…. Sovereignty

Baffert allowed back in town with (3) running ?-?-?

 

[5o'clockcharlie]

River Thames will not run in the Derby.

Also, the owners of Owen Almighty have done a reversal and now will run in the Derby.

 

[5o'clockcharlie]

16 Days till Derby…

Grace Potter to sing national anthem, Simone Biles to serve as Riders Up announcer at KY Derby​

Should there be a scratch….


Next four in the field (ordered by points):

Built, 50-1. Hard Spun – Wayne Catalano / TBD - 45, 5th Louisiana Derby (G2), 92 - 6: 2-1-2, $244,204.

Neoequos, 50-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Edgard Zayas - 40, 3rd Florida Derby, 91 - 7: 2-2-2, $291,050.

Render Judgment, 50-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Sheldon Russell - 39, 5th Blue Grass, 90 - 7: 1-2-1, $250,672.

Baeza, 15-1. McKinzie – John Shirreffs / Hector Berrios – 37.5, 2nd Santa Anita Derby (G1), 101 - 4: 1-2-0, $148,500

Of that group, the connections of Neoequos and Baeza are the only ones that want to run in the Derby. Baeza shipped today to Churchill in hopes of making the field. If not, he will run inthe Preakness.

 

[5o'clockcharlie]

Of that group, the connections of Neoequos and Baeza are the only ones that want to run in the Derby. Baeza shipped today to Churchill in hopes of making the field. If not, he will run inthe Preakness.

Baeza will actually ship to Churchill next week, not today.

 

[skoda]

Don't sleep on Luxor Cafe...

15 Days lots of ways for a pay


Luxor Cafe qualified for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with wins in the Fukurya Stakes and Hyacinth Stakes, and now has four career victories in six starts. Trainer Noriyuki Hori is one of the best in Japan and will try to give the country another chance to win America's most prestigious race. Forever Young's third-place finish in last year's Kentucky Derby was the best ever for a Japanese horse and Luxor Cafe certainly has the pedigree to be in contention for the win in 2025.

Baeza will actually ship to Churchill next week, not today.

Maybe someone knows of a scratch,

Journalism	3-1	SEE PICKS
Sandman	8-1	SEE PICKS
Sovereignty	8-1	SEE PICKS
Rodriguez	10-1	SEE PICKS
Tappan Street	10-1	SEE PICKS
Burnham Square	15-1	SEE PICKS
Luxor Cafe	15-1	SEE PICKS
Citizen Bull	20-1	SEE PICKS
East Avenue	20-1	SEE PICKS
Grande	20-1	SEE PICKS
Owen Almighty	50-1	SEE PICKS
Tiztastic	20-1	SEE PICKS
American Promise	30-1	SEE PICKS
Chunk of Gold	30-1	SEE PICKS
Coal Battle	30-1	SEE PICKS
Final Gambit	30-1	SEE PICKS
Publisher	30-1	SEE PICKS
Admire Daytona	50-1	SEE PICKS
Flood Zone	50-1	SEE PICKS
Flying Mohawk	50-1	SEE PICKS

https://www.nerdwallet.com/m/banking/standout-online-savings-accounts-ntv

 

[skoda]

14 Days/13 Days Oaks weather forecast for both

 

[skoda]

14 Days/13 Days Oaks weather forecast for both

Madaket Road Out Of Kentucky Derby In Favor Of Pat Day Mile





Kentucky Derby may have fewer than 20 starters May 3





The defection re-opens a spot in the field for Built, trained by Wayne Catalano. The son of Hard Spun, winner of the Gun Runner Stakes back in January, is listed as "possible" for the Kentucky Derby.

 

[skoda]

13 Days 14 and the winner is........

"Jockey over Horse. Any horse can win, but a great jockey can win on any horse over and over again"​

 

[skoda]

13 Days

Post Position draw April 26th

 

[skoda]

Weather looking

The specialties — a Mint Julep, Oaks Lily, Spire or Margarita — are all $22. For any cocktail, you're going to pay at least $18. Premium beers and seltzers are $14, and just a dollar less for domestics.

Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) are among the most useful handicapping tools in Kentucky Derby betting. Of the last 32 Kentucky Derby winners, 28 of them had posted at least a 95 BSF leading up to the race (87.5%); 11 of the previous 14 posted a 100+ BSF. There’s a strong correlation between a horse’s best Beyer and winning the Kentucky Derby.


Twelve Derby contenders fit the Beyer bill. Eleven qualify with triple-digit Brisnet ratings. Nine boast both.

Best speed numbers	Beyer	Brisnet
3. Journalism	108	108
24. Baeza	101	107
4. Rodríguez	101	105
2. Sandman	99	101
11. Citizen Bull	98	107
17. Grande	97	101
1. Burnham Square (g)	96	101
13. East Avenue	96	97
15. American Promise	95	105
5. Tiztastic	95	100
7. Sovereignty	95	99
14. Publisher	95	98
22. Neoequos	91	101
8. Final Gambit	90	101
6. Tappan Street	94	99
12. Owen Almighty	93	97
10. Chunk of Gold	92	98
21. Built	92	94
9. Coal Battle	91	98
18. Madaket Road	90	96
23. Render Judgment	90	96
16. Flying Mohawk	84	97
Beyer: career-best via DRF
Brisnet: career-best
g - gelding

 

[skoda]

2025 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 2 and May 3, 2025 | KentuckyDerby.com

2025 Kentucky Derby is the 151st renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports and will run on May 3rd, 2025. Find live odds, horse bios, travel info, tickets, news, and updates.

www.kentuckyderby.com

Journalism, 7-2. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli – 122.5, 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1), 108 - 5: 4-0-1, $638,880. Journalism comes to the Kentucky Derby with four wins in a row, including the Santa Anita Derby, which is typically a 100-point race, the San Felipe (G2) and the Los Alamitos (G2) as a 2-year-old. He has a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, including a 108 from the San Felipe. That's the highest among all of the Derby possibles and is tied for the top number of any 3-year-old this year. He will travel outside of California for the first time. Michael McCarthy had his first Derby starter last year. Expected Derby favorite.

Sovereignty, 7-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado - 110, 2nd Florida Derby, 95 - 5: 2-2-0, $572,800. Sovereignty had a pair of wins on the Derby trail in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs and the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Last seen, he was gaining with his usual late rally to finish second in the Florida Derby (G1). Regular rider Junior Alvarado will be back on board. Mott won the 2019 Derby with Country House when Maximum Security was disqualified. Win contender.

Sandman, 8-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz - 129, 1st Arkansas Derby, 99 - 8: 3-1-2, $1,254,595. Sandman won the Arkansas Derby in his fifth start on the Derby trail when he rallied from the back of the field. He made three starts at Churchill and with eight races is one of the most experienced horses in the Derby field. Casse will try for his first Derby victory with his 11th starter. Win contender.

Luxor Cafe, 10-1. American Pharoah – Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira - Japan, 1st Fukuryu, NA - 6: 4-1-0, $379,057. Luxor Café also won his last four starts, which were in Japan. He won three stakes races in his country to get the spot in the run for the roses from the Japan road to the Kentucky Derby. Luxor Cafe will make his first start outside of Japan, and his trainer is a Derby rookie. Toss.

Tappan Street, 10-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Luis Saez - 110, 1st Florida Derby, 94 - 3: 2-1-0, $643,400. Tappan Street prepped for the run for the roses in Florida and made all three of his starts at Gulfstream. He won his debut at the end of December, moved onto the Derby trail with a second in the Holy Bull (G3) and then got a 100-point victory in the Florida Derby with a stalking trip. Cox got credited with a Kentucky Derby win with Mandaloun in 2021 after Medina Spirit was disqualified. Win contender.

 

[skoda]

Burnham Square, 12-1. Liam’s Map – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. - 130, 1st Blue Grass, 96 - 6: 3-1-1, $977,755. Burnham Square comes to the Derby on top of the points list based on three starts this year and two victories. After a nine-length maiden score in his third start, he won the Holy Bull. He was fourth in the Fountain of Youth as the favorite and bounced back to get a 100-point win in the Blue Grass closing from last in that field of seven. Ian Wilkes will make his second appearance in the Derby. Win contender.

Rodriguez, 12-1. Authentic – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 121.25, 1st Wood Memorial (G2), 101 - 5: 2-2-1, $522,800. Rodriguez is one of three probable starters in the Kentucky Derby for Bob Baffert as he returns to the big race for the first time since 2021 seeking a record seventh victory. Rodriguez got a 100-point victory when he shipped to New York to win the Wood Memorial with a front-end victory in a strong 1:48 time for the nine furlongs. This year he also was second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and third in the San Felipe. Win contender.

Tiztastic, 15-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario - 119, 1st Louisiana Derby (G2), 95 - 8: 3-1-2, $1,549,800. Tiztastic won twice on the turf as a 2-year-old and then moved on to make five starts on the Derby trail. He ran the best race of his career when he won the 100-point Louisiana Derby with a late rally. Steve Asmussen is expected have two horses in this year’s Derby. Asmussen leads all trainers with 10,854 victories, but he has not won the run for the roses after 26 starters. Win contender.

Admire Daytona, 20-1. Drefong – Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire - Europe, 1st UAE Derby (G2), European - 6: 2-2-0, $672,047. Admire Daytona makes his way to the Kentucky Derby as the points leader of the Euro-Mideast road to the Derby. This Japan-bred won the UAE Derby (G2) in his first start outside of his home country with a nose victory in the 100-point qualifier. Trainer Yukihiro Kato will make his first appearance in the run for the roses. Toss.

Citizen Bull, 20-1. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia – 71.25, 4th Santa Anita Derby, 98 - 6: 4-1-0, $1,451,000. Citizen Bull made four starts on the Derby trail going back to 2024 when he won the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to secure the 2-year-old division championship. He came back this year in the Robert B. Lewis with another front-end victory and then faded badly to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Citizen Bull is the second Baffert runner in this field. Toss.

 

[skoda]

East Avenue, 20-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Brendan Walsh / TBD - 60, 2nd Blue Grass (G1), 96 - 5: 2-1-0, $654,395. East Avenue was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in his second start in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with a front-running score. He stumbled badly in the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and lost all chance. East Avenue showed speed in the Risen Star (G2) to start 2025 but faded to 10th. He bounced back in the Blue Grass and was second by a nose after setting the pace. This is Brendan Walsh’s second Derby runner. Toss.

Grande, 20-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez - 50, 2nd Wood Memorial, 97 – 3: 2-1-0, $228,200. Grande won his first two starts at Gulfstream during the winter going a mile and then another furlong after pressing the pace. In the Wood Memorial he rallied from seventh and a second-place finish got him eligible for the Derby. Todd Pletcher won the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017 with John Velazquez as the rider. Win contender.

American Promise, 25-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez - 55, 1st Virginia Derby, 95 - 9: 2-1-1, $444,874. American Promise is the most experienced horse in the field, with nine starts. He broke his maiden in his sixth race and moved onto the Derby trail, where he had a pair of lackluster performances. American Promise had a career-best effort to win the Virginia Derby by almost eight lengths. He will become the 51st Derby horse for D. Wayne Lukas, who has four victories in the run for roses from 1988 to 1999. Toss.

Coal Battle, 25-1. Coal Front – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas - 95, 3rd Arkansas Derby (G1), 91 - 8: 5-0-1, $1,188,875. Coal Battle leads this group in wins with five. He began his career as turf horse but two victories on wet dirt tracks prompted veteran trainer Lonnie Briley to try the Derby trail. He went on to win qualifying points in his next four races, with wins in the Springboard Mile, the Smarty Jones and the Rebel (G2). Coal Battle was third in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby. The classic distance has to be a concern. Toss.

Owen Almighty, 25-1. Speightstown – Brian Lynch / TBD - 65, 6th Blue Grass (G1), 93 - 7: 3-2-0, $499,935. Owen Almighty is back in the Derby field after connections changed plans. He made four starts on the Derby trail beginning with a second in the Iroquois (G3) in 2024. He thrived at Tampa Bay Downs with a second in the Sam F. Davis and a front-end victory in the Tampa Derby (G3). In the Blue Grass, he pressed the pace and faded to finish sixth. Toss.

 

[skoda]

Final Gambit, 33-1. Not This Time – Brad Cox / Luan Machado - 100, 1st Jeff Ruby (G3), 90 - 4: 2-1-1, $520,639. Final Gambit is the synthetic specialist with three starts at Turfway Park. He broke his maiden in February and then had a visually impressive victory in the 100-point Jeff Ruby, where he rallied from last to win by 3 1/2 lengths. Toss.

Chunk of Gold, 40-1. Preservationist – Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry - 75, 2nd Louisiana Derby (G1), 92 – 4: 1-3-0, $348,818. Chunk of Gold was a debut winner at Turfway Park in December and then went on to finish second in his next three races. To start this year, he went a mile in a stakes on Tapeta and moved onto the Derby trail in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. This will be Ethan West’s first Derby starter. Toss.

Publisher, 40-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. - 60, 2nd Arkansas Derby, 95 - 7: M-2-3, $407,756. Publisher is still a maiden after seven starts for Steve Asmussen. He had four top three finishes as a 2-year-old and then Asmussen moved him onto the Derby trail at Oaklawn in 2025. Publisher was sixth in the Southwest (G3), fourth in the Rebel and rallied for far back in the Arkansas Derby to finish second. Toss.

Flying Mohawk, 50-1. Karakontie – Whit Beckman / Joseph Ramos - 50, 2nd Jeff Ruby (G3), 84 - 6: 2-0-0, $295,800. Flying Mohawk raced five times on turf at the start of his career, with a maiden breaker at Churchill in October followed by an allowance win at Fair Grounds. A second in the Jeff Ruby got him 50 points. Trainer Whit Beckman had his first Kentucky Derby starter last year with Honor Marie, who finished eighth. Toss.

#20 ???

 

[skoda]

Don't sleep on Luxor Cafe...

11 Days

The Fukuryu Stakes runs at 1 1/8 miles and that's the same distance as the top Kentucky Derby prep races in America. Demling sees similarities to Luxor Cafe's father, American Pharoah, in the 3-year-old's end of the Fukuryu Stakes run. The 2015 Triple Crown winner used a late burst to win his Kentucky Derby race and at 15-1 odds, Demling sees value in Luxor Cafe at the Kentucky Derby 10 years later! Maybe he is 1-3-4-6

125/614/417/326 my Keeneland (yet to win) #s playing in Oaks & Derby Day

⛳️

on paper as any race the favorite wins about 30/35% of the time