Derby '09 writeup

[Michelangelo]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=msg vAlign=top width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>This is the Derby. Favorites traditionally don't win here. The biggest challenge they face is the distance of 1 1/4 which none of these young 3 year olds have ever run before. Lately, there is an added challenge since the recent inception of polytrack which means that some of today's contenders have never run on a real dirt track before. If those two complications aren't enough today will most assuredly feature a wet track, a surface many of today's horses have yet to experience.

Can the favorites get through these new challenges? Sure. But with each additional complication the odds mount that they won't.

So like other forms of betting I look for value. A horse with a reasonable chance who's odds are disproportionately in my favor.

Gonna take a crack with the Arab horse, Desert Party. There are two. Regal Ransom being the other. But Regal Ransom likes to be on the front end where I'm sure he will at least have the company of Join in the Dance. As we know, speed winging it with company means those horses will be in front early but near the back of the pack at the end.

For years the Arabs brought their horses, which they paid handsomely for, to the Breeder's Cup. For years they went back to the desert parched and thirsty with nothing to show for it. Buuuuuut, last year things all changed. I don't know if they found a drug concocted from camel hump secretions or what, but last October they cleaned up in the Breeder's Cup with winner after winner. So maybe the time is now for their longawaited success in the Triple Crown races (0/5 to this point in the Run For the Roses).

Desert Party has a disadvantaged post being in the 19 hole. But he has tactical speed and a jockey in Dominiquez who will know how to use it. He has won on the dirt and has won in the slop, two plusses in his resume that a lot of today's contenders don't have. His sire is an Irish horse, Street Cry. I think the Irish breed the best horses. Street Cry is one of only two sires of horses in today's race to have already sired a Derby winner as he was the father of 2007 winner, Street Sense.

Lastly, I've got a little soft spot for this horse. I was at Saratoga last year when he broke very badly in the Hopeful. He ate my money with that bad break (how come those two words come up so often in sports gamblin'?!) last fall but he'll pay me back in spades if he gets the job done today.

.............


There is a ton of money to be made today if you can pick the exotics. I always shoot for the trifecta by keying a horse. Those trifectas can pay well into the thousands. I had Giacomo the year the tri paid $110,000.00. Nope. I didn't have the tri. But I'm gonna try again today.

I'll try to get back with the horses I'm using with Desert Party. Not done with that process yet.

Have fun. Good luck. One of my favorite days is here.

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[BillyKidd]

I agree that there is a ton of money to be made today in the derby. It seems to me that there is an absence of lead speed in this race. The horses that have ran on the lead really don't have that blazing speed that most derbies have. I look for slow to moderate fractions in this race that will compromise deep closers. Lead speed usually does well on off tracks. I'm looking for that horse that will be close to the lead, does well on off tracks, and has shown can run well at 1 1/8 m. Most of the lead speed in this race have faded at 1 1/8m races. Could Regal Ransom be the one? I don't think he has ran on an off track. I wonder if his pedigree does well on off tracks.

 

[Michelangelo]

That's a real good point BK. Like your thinking. Regal Ransom's sire is the other sire to have already fathered a Derby winner. He did hold off Desert Party in their last race. He's got a 387 wet track number (Pioneer of the Nile has a 379; Friesan Fire has a whopping 446). Although that's in the middle of the pack for this field, my experience with these numbers tells me that could well be enough. They are far from 100% correct in their predictability.

Damn. May have to key the other Arab horse too.

 

[Michelangelo]

After lookin' and lookin' and lookin' some more, Billy Kidd is gonna make me break one of horse racing's cardinal rules, never key more than one horse in a race.

Billy is right. The speed in this race is very pedestrian. Slow early fractions mean two things - the speed has a much greater chance of holding on, and the closers won't be able to close on that early speed.

So two key horses:

Desert Party
Regal Ransom

May the Arabs be the victors. Well I mean just in this race.

 

[BillyKidd]

I wish you all the luck in the world. I hope I didn't steer you in the wrong direction. But you gotta callem like you see em.

 

[Michelangelo]

Billy,

No problem man. In fact I could very well be saying thank you when all is said and done.

I'm no rook at this stuff. You made some very valid points.

Don't mind the double key today as the potential payoffs make it well worth the added investment. There aren't many days that strategy makes sense but today may be the most opportune time to make betting there is in sportsgambling all year 'cause of the giant comingled pool and all the fair weather horse racing fans who bet into it creating huge underlays and overlays with potentially humungous payouts.

Thanks for your input.

OK. The horses I'll be using in my tri keys:

Desert Party first and second with the following horses:

1) West Side Bernie
2) Musket Man
6) Friesan Fire
7) Papa Clem
10) Regal Ransom
11) Chocolate Candy
12) General Quarters
16) Pioneer of the Nile

and....

Do the same for Regal Ransom substituting Desert Party for Regal Ransom on the "with" list.

Cost of above is $56.00 (X4) = $224.00
Good luck guys.