Denver, strange stat

Serbone · Saturday at 7:50 PM

Calculate how many point spread covers were on the last score of the game, a TD, or even a FG.

Happens a lot.

If you cover, or lose, on the last score of the game it is somewhat pure luck, a random happenstance. Not all the time, but often enough.

SO if you cover a spread of say, -7, with a 14 point or more win, well, that is a good pick.

If you win with a 59 yard FG in the last few seconds, not so much.

Mofome2 · Sunday at 9:13 AM

uscmd said:
Itchy, I'm with you. no play.

My point in all of this drivel, is that parity and razor sharp lines, have reduced the game largely to the random plays, being decisive. For 6 weeks I've been wrestling with whats changed. I believe this is a big chunk. I'm open to other thoughts.

bol 2 all

Agreed on all your points. Have been betting like most on the board for a long time. Until this past year I looked back and thought maybe this is the year I am just and old dog in a game that has tightened up so much it's like finding a needle in a haystack to make a profit.
I think the culmination of Vegas being able to use tools now that the common laymen don't normally have can make games down to a science. I dont believe pick the winner and the spread often does not come into play.
Example also more gamed in a season means more injury. Not many starters playing in pre season is like throwing darts the first 3 weeks. Leaves 14 weeks to make a profit. Players play the game now obviously so much different then years ago, Example Pickens acting like a spoiled baby in Dallas.
There are a select few I think that can still crunch numbers amd make a profit. Just much harder anymore. I remember when a few years back when a kicker had to make a 45 harder that could fck over your bet, asshols not as puckered. Now these guys are drilling 62 yard field goals. How does that evolve or even change over the last 5 years?
I won't even get into college. NIL money and portal and having a 100 bowl games have ruined that. Good luck today. Was going to do a teaser on Rams and Chargers but not even worth it because not even knowing if Herbert will play and if so how effective can you be with cast on your non throwing hand.