Dejavu Switch-a-roo?? ... 80-1 open lengths winner at MVR

Prof_Factor · Jan 14, 2016

Exactly 9 weeks ago LEATHERS SLAPPIN impersonated a hapless 5-yo maiden claiming career also-ran mare, scoring @ 127-1.

Yesterday, the same connections Spiess/Stanley scored another open length winning bomb by another hapless 5yo maiden claiming mare, CONFIDENT BERNA, in the 8th at MVR.

Was it really CONFIDENT BERNA??

We have video replays available to us. It's hard to see CONFIDENT BERNA in most of her races because she usually trails so far behind the field, but if you watch the start of her race at Thistledowns on 8-29-2015 (race #2, #6-horse), you can see rear white socks. You don't see them when she wins at 80-1 in the score yesterday in race 8 at MVR. On the ride out, the camera isolates CONFIDENT BERNA and you can see she has no socks on any leg.

So now I was wondering if those socks were wraps? Looking at another route race were the camera is point blank at the start, on 7-27-2015 race#1 at TDN, CONFIDENT BERNA is #1 horse on the rail and you can clearly see those are rear socks and not wraps.

From a speed figure standpoint, CONFIDENT BERNA got a 56-fig from me for the win. By comparison, in 2015 she averaged 22 with a 31 best. In 2014, her best was 49. Spiess took over training in 2015.

What does it look like to you? Draw your own conclusions .... I've already logged a footnote.

For those that want to watch some videos, here's the list of past races and program numbers for CONFIDENT BERNA...

Code:

CONFIDENT BERNA 2011 (5yo)
  PEDIGREE : BERNSTEIN / A.P. INDY
------------------------------
DATE        R# H# TRK DIST
01-13-2016  8  6  MVR 6.0 
09-12-2015  1  3  TDN 6.0 
08-29-2015  2  6  TDN 8.0 
07-27-2015  1  1  TDN 8.0 
07-01-2015  8  4  TDN 6.0 
06-08-2015  3  3  TDN 6.0 
10-08-2014  1  7  HAW 8.0 
09-14-2014  1  6  AP  7.5 
08-30-2014  2  2  AP  8.0

Prof_Factor · Jan 14, 2016

FWIW, yesterday's winner looks more like LEATHERS SLAPPIN!!!

Checkout LEATHERS SLAPPIN win as RUBY QUEEN on 11-04-2015 at MVR (race#9) and tell me if they don't look identical.

munsoned · Jan 14, 2016

very interesting, thanks for posting

munsoned · Jan 14, 2016

watched a few replays, i think those are wraps on the previous races, although i cant be 100 percent sure. Very observant on your part though

IMISREMEMBER · Jan 15, 2016

Wow, prof factor, nice find. I was at otb on that Wednesday, I handicap the race 10, 11, 9,7 no other horses come close for me, but than I see that Stanley was on this 6 @ 99-1, and this is when they are loading, I rifle through all my plays and decide to put 4wp on 6 just becuase I am down want to leave, of course I get shut out. Horse mysterily was 99-1 than 80-1 just saying, or that might be normal odds catch up slow or some one hit that late.

Prof_Factor · Oct 20, 2016

Bumping thread for those interested or play Ohio tracks.
It has been almost a year since 4yo colt LEATHER SLAPPIN impersonated a filly and won at 127-1.
5 weeks later, CONFIDENT BERNA won which prompted me to start this thread.
Apparently I wasn't the only one suspicious as Mahoning Valley Race Course began double checking horse tattoos in the winner's circle after each race, and continued this practice until season end. Belterra Park also began double checking tattoos in the winner's circle. I thought Thistledowns did too but I can't be sure. I noticed recently they were not double checking after the races.

So that got me wondering if Mahoning will open the season doing this or not. Season starts next week, Oct 28th. I will be watching for this. LEATHER SLAPPIN won opening week on November 4th. Spiess did not run any horses during the entire month of December (possibly under suspension). Began running horses again January 6th. CONFIDENT BERNA won on January 13th.

I'm very confident CONFIDENT BERNA wasn't herself when she won. She has raced just twice since and her performances returned to very normal lackluster efforts. She hasn't raced since March 1st.

Below is a basic two-year Past Perf listing for CONFIDENT BERNA that includes my own speed figures (S.FIG) :

Code:

CONFIDENT BERNA 2011 (5yo)
  PEDIGREE : BERNSTEIN / A.P. INDY
-------------------------------------
 PP DATE R# TRK SURF COND BEAT  DIST  S.FIG  TIME  CALL2 CALL1 RACETYPE JOCKEY             ODDS  FIN/FIELD
 1  301  7  MVR DIRT FAST 15.9   6.0   11.9  48.9  15.1  11.2  CLM  5k  STANLEY, ANGEL     40.5    11/12  
 2  202  8  MVR DIRT FAST 15.6   6.0   10.9  49.4   9.9   7.7  CLM  5k  STANLEY, ANGEL     21.4    9/12   
 3  113  8  MVR DIRT FAST  0.0   6.0   56.0  47.1  -3.5  -0.1  MCL  5k  STANLEY, ANGEL     80.9    1/10   
 4  912  1  TDN DIRT GOOD 16.5   6.0   17.3  46.6  17.0  16.6  MCL  5k  NUNEZ, ISAIS       80.2    7/8    
 5  829  2  TDN DIRT FAST 17.0   8.0   29.2  75.9  11.1   5.1  MCL  5k  MATA, FEDERICO     51.6    8/8    
 6  727  1  TDN DIRT FAST 17.0   8.0   19.2  76.8   7.7  12.5  MCL  5k  DE LA CRUZ, WALTER 27.8    6/8    
 7  701  8  TDN DIRT FAST 16.1   6.0    0.5  48.9  12.5  10.2  MCL  5k  HOUGHTON, T.        9.7    6/9    
 8  608  3  TDN DIRT FAST  7.5   6.0   31.2  47.8   8.7   9.1  MCL  8k  HOUGHTON, T.        8.5    6/7