Defensive Hog Index

[rolltide]

historically the best correlation to playoff success has been the "Defensive Hog Index" which is CHFF's attempt to quantify a team's front 7. Here is the DHI heading into playoffs:

(seriously though if you bet on the better DHI and OHI teams you will do just fine...)

DHI (most important)

Rank	Team	RY/A	#	NPP%	#	3rd%	#	DHI
1 ∼	Denver	3.26	1	10.42	2	35.24	7	3.33
2 ∼	N.Y. Jets	3.57	3	8.91	13	33.05	2	6.00
3 ↑ 2	Kansas City	4.10	16	10.55	1	33.18	3	6.67
4 ↓ 1	Seattle	3.61	4	8.70	14	34.36	4	7.33
5 ↑ 4	Houston	4.10	17	9.72	5	28.50	1	7.67
6 ↓ 1	Carolina	3.89	7	9.80	4	37.89	13	8.00
7 ∼	New England	3.97	11	9.32	7	37.33	10	9.33
7 ↓ 3	Arizona	3.90	9	9.03	11	35.71	8	9.33
9 ↑ 1	Pittsburgh	3.82	6	9.66	6	40.00	21	11.00
10 ↑ 2	Minnesota	4.25	21	9.27	8	34.47	5	11.33
11 ↓ 3	St. Louis	4.02	15	8.46	15	34.67	6	12.00
12 ∼	Green Bay	4.54	29	9.93	3	35.91	9	13.67
13 ↓ 2	Tennessee	3.89	8	9.23	9	42.59	25	14.00
14 ↑ 1	Tampa Bay	3.45	2	8.46	16	45.97	30	16.00
15 ↓ 1	Cincinnati	4.29	22	9.16	10	39.45	18	16.67
16 ↓ 1	Oakland	4.13	18	7.66	23	37.50	11	17.33
17 ↑ 1	Baltimore	3.97	10	7.39	25	39.81	19	18.00
18 ↓ 1	Detroit	4.21	20	8.93	12	41.00	24	18.67
19 ∼	Indianapolis	4.32	23	8.39	17	39.21	17	19.00
20 ∼	San Francisco	4.01	14	6.41	29	39.05	16	19.67
21 ↓ 1	Dallas	4.20	19	7.26	26	38.94	15	20.00
22 ↑ 3	Washington	4.83	31	8.11	18	37.68	12	20.33

OHI (important)

Rank	Team	RY/A	#	NPP%	#	3rd%	#	OHI
1 ∼	Arizona	4.24	12	6.78	8	46.97	3	7.67
2 ↑ 1	Tampa Bay	4.75	2	7.47	12	41.58	10	8.00
3 ↓ 1	N.Y. Jets	4.17	14	6.07	2	40.61	12	9.33
4 ∼	New Orleans	3.76	27	6.15	3	47.47	1	10.33
5 ∼	Carolina	4.34	10	8.04	15	42.36	7	10.67
6 ↑ 3	Seattle	4.53	7	10.09	28	46.48	4	13.00
6 ↓ 1	St. Louis	4.56	6	5.91	1	25.87	32	13.00
8 ↑ 1	Atlanta	3.84	25	7.50	14	47.14	2	13.67
8 ↑ 3	Washington	3.66	30	6.53	6	43.52	5	13.67
10 ↓ 3	Chicago	3.95	20	8.09	16	42.47	6	14.00
11 ∼	Pittsburgh	4.44	8	8.52	18	38.86	17	14.33
12 ↑ 7	N.Y. Giants	3.98	18	6.31	4	37.79	22	14.67
13 ↑ 1	New England	3.67	29	6.75	7	40.93	11	15.67
13 ↓ 5	Oakland	3.93	21	7.37	10	39.09	16	15.67
15 ↑ 1	Kansas City	4.67	3	10.04	26	38.19	19	16.00
15 ↓ 1	Cincinnati	3.85	24	7.46	11	40.30	13	16.00
17 ↓ 1	Buffalo	4.78	1	10.06	27	37.89	21	16.33
18 ↓ 7	Cleveland	4.02	16	9.82	25	41.85	9	16.67
19 ↓ 1	Baltimore	3.86	23	6.43	5	37.61	23	17.00
20 ↓ 1	Minnesota	4.66	4	10.82	30	38.19	19	17.67
20 ↓ 1	San Diego	3.46	32	7.49	13	41.99	8	17.67
22 ↑ 2	Philadelphia	3.92	22	8.33	17	39.39	15	18.00
23 ↑ 3	Houston	3.67	28	7.33	9	38.55	18	18.33
24 ↓ 1	Dallas	4.64	5	9.80	24	34.55	27	18.67
25 ↓ 3	Green Bay	4.24	11	8.87	21	33.65	28	20.00
26 ∼	Miami	4.36	9	8.99	22	30.73	30	20.33
26 ↑ 4	Denver	4.18	13	9.61	23	35.27	25	20.33

wild one this year as Denver's DHI is great, OHI is terrible. I've never seen such a disparity so will be interesting to see how they fare

 

[savage55]

I don't know how the match ups go or who Denver would play if certain teams win but this my opinion for them next round. They would lose to either KC or Pitt and they would win against Houston or Cincy.. JMHO

 

[savage55]

This makes me feel real good about my Pitt wager this weekend

 

[rolltide]

playoff teams ranked by best yards per attempt differential:
+1.77 Arizona 7.82 - 6.05
+1.54 Cincinnati 7.32 - 5.78
+1.34 Seattle 7.08 - 5.74
+1.30 Carolina 6.71 - 5.41
+1.04 Denver 6.16 - 5.12
+0.95 Pittsburgh 7.41 - 6.46
+0.89 New England 6.88 - 5.99
+0.64 Kansas City 6.29 - 5.65
+0.21 Washington 7.04 - 6.83
+0.21 Houston 5.85 - 5.64
-0.35 Minnesota 5.87 - 6.22
-0.48 Green Bay 5.65 - 6.13


better DHI = Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, Green Bay
better OHI = Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, Washington

 

[rolltide]

playoff teams ranked by Real QB Rating differential:
+27.78 Carolina 96.05 - 68.27
+25.45 Seattle 98.29 - 72.84
+23.50 Cincinnati 96.22 - 72.72
+20.72 Kansas City 89.92 - 69.20
+20.08 Arizona 93.82 - 73.74
+17.28 New England 94.63 77.35
+9.96 Washington 96.62 - 86.66
+7.93 Green Bay 83.97 - 76.04
+2.52 Denver 71.08 - 68.56
+3.94 Pittsburgh 85.35 81.41
+1.49 Houston 78.00 - 76.51
-3.12 Minnesota 79.13 - 82.25

 

[Serbone]

historically the best correlation to playoff success has been the "Defensive Hog Index" which is CHFF's attempt to quantify a team's front 7. Here is the DHI heading into playoffs:

(seriously though if you bet on the better DHI and OHI teams you will do just fine...)

DHI (most important)

Rank	Team	RY/A	#	NPP%	#	3rd%	#	DHI
1 ∼	Denver	3.26	1	10.42	2	35.24	7	3.33
2 ∼	N.Y. Jets	3.57	3	8.91	13	33.05	2	6.00
3 ↑ 2	Kansas City	4.10	16	10.55	1	33.18	3	6.67
4 ↓ 1	Seattle	3.61	4	8.70	14	34.36	4	7.33
5 ↑ 4	Houston	4.10	17	9.72	5	28.50	1	7.67
6 ↓ 1	Carolina	3.89	7	9.80	4	37.89	13	8.00
7 ∼	New England	3.97	11	9.32	7	37.33	10	9.33
7 ↓ 3	Arizona	3.90	9	9.03	11	35.71	8	9.33
9 ↑ 1	Pittsburgh	3.82	6	9.66	6	40.00	21	11.00
10 ↑ 2	Minnesota	4.25	21	9.27	8	34.47	5	11.33
11 ↓ 3	St. Louis	4.02	15	8.46	15	34.67	6	12.00
12 ∼	Green Bay	4.54	29	9.93	3	35.91	9	13.67
13 ↓ 2	Tennessee	3.89	8	9.23	9	42.59	25	14.00
14 ↑ 1	Tampa Bay	3.45	2	8.46	16	45.97	30	16.00
15 ↓ 1	Cincinnati	4.29	22	9.16	10	39.45	18	16.67
16 ↓ 1	Oakland	4.13	18	7.66	23	37.50	11	17.33
17 ↑ 1	Baltimore	3.97	10	7.39	25	39.81	19	18.00
18 ↓ 1	Detroit	4.21	20	8.93	12	41.00	24	18.67
19 ∼	Indianapolis	4.32	23	8.39	17	39.21	17	19.00
20 ∼	San Francisco	4.01	14	6.41	29	39.05	16	19.67
21 ↓ 1	Dallas	4.20	19	7.26	26	38.94	15	20.00
22 ↑ 3	Washington	4.83	31	8.11	18	37.68	12	20.33

OHI (important)

Rank	Team	RY/A	#	NPP%	#	3rd%	#	OHI
1 ∼	Arizona	4.24	12	6.78	8	46.97	3	7.67
2 ↑ 1	Tampa Bay	4.75	2	7.47	12	41.58	10	8.00
3 ↓ 1	N.Y. Jets	4.17	14	6.07	2	40.61	12	9.33
4 ∼	New Orleans	3.76	27	6.15	3	47.47	1	10.33
5 ∼	Carolina	4.34	10	8.04	15	42.36	7	10.67
6 ↑ 3	Seattle	4.53	7	10.09	28	46.48	4	13.00
6 ↓ 1	St. Louis	4.56	6	5.91	1	25.87	32	13.00
8 ↑ 1	Atlanta	3.84	25	7.50	14	47.14	2	13.67
8 ↑ 3	Washington	3.66	30	6.53	6	43.52	5	13.67
10 ↓ 3	Chicago	3.95	20	8.09	16	42.47	6	14.00
11 ∼	Pittsburgh	4.44	8	8.52	18	38.86	17	14.33
12 ↑ 7	N.Y. Giants	3.98	18	6.31	4	37.79	22	14.67
13 ↑ 1	New England	3.67	29	6.75	7	40.93	11	15.67
13 ↓ 5	Oakland	3.93	21	7.37	10	39.09	16	15.67
15 ↑ 1	Kansas City	4.67	3	10.04	26	38.19	19	16.00
15 ↓ 1	Cincinnati	3.85	24	7.46	11	40.30	13	16.00
17 ↓ 1	Buffalo	4.78	1	10.06	27	37.89	21	16.33
18 ↓ 7	Cleveland	4.02	16	9.82	25	41.85	9	16.67
19 ↓ 1	Baltimore	3.86	23	6.43	5	37.61	23	17.00
20 ↓ 1	Minnesota	4.66	4	10.82	30	38.19	19	17.67
20 ↓ 1	San Diego	3.46	32	7.49	13	41.99	8	17.67
22 ↑ 2	Philadelphia	3.92	22	8.33	17	39.39	15	18.00
23 ↑ 3	Houston	3.67	28	7.33	9	38.55	18	18.33
24 ↓ 1	Dallas	4.64	5	9.80	24	34.55	27	18.67
25 ↓ 3	Green Bay	4.24	11	8.87	21	33.65	28	20.00
26 ∼	Miami	4.36	9	8.99	22	30.73	30	20.33
26 ↑ 4	Denver	4.18	13	9.61	23	35.27	25	20.33

wild one this year as Denver's DHI is great, OHI is terrible. I've never seen such a disparity so will be interesting to see how they fare

32 teams in NFL.. why only 22 & 26 on this?

 

[TheMoment.]

32 teams in NFL.. why only 22 & 26 on this?

Because some are tied and share ranks. Count the teams again.

 

[nsight]

cuz the ones not shown aren't in the playoffs is my guess

 

[rolltide]

32 teams in NFL.. why only 22 & 26 on this?

because i cut it off at the last playoff team

 

[Serbone]

Ha!
Thanks for the good info.