We're BACK
After two consecutive days of plus results in the Betjam contest, we are of course haughty enough to presume all systems are go
Posted lines are from early AM this morning when I entered my Saturday BJam contest selections
BOLT +150 at Senator $8
BOLT/SEN Undah 5.5 (-105) $5
Here we have the first of two games tonight pairing teams from the Bottom10 of the NHL. In this case, the 30th and 27th ranked teams respectively (Sagarin).
Our rule of thumb in such matchups is to immediately look to see if one team seems way overpriced for what should be an even matchup and thus we are pleased to see what appears to be a rather silly OTT -170
TBay list of woes is lengthy, but a short term cure could be had with this non-divisional out of towner which just had a nice 3-1 upset at Montreal.
Since beginning of last season, TB is a very respectable 8-7 After a RoadWin, (2-2 this year). Not unreasonable to suggest that a crummy team gets away from home town pressures, wins a game and thus sparks at least a bit of surge for a second such win.
Ottawa counters with a team that since last spring has shown no bounce back whatsoever. Playing in games After Scoring 1orless, Sens are 1-11 since late March.
Playing H2H with teams in bottom half of league, Sens are just 4-8 while Lightning are 5-8. IOW, the two teams remain very even on paper and in performance. Give us the 3to2 takeback.
As for the Total, we get the 29th and 30th ranked offenses in the NHL versus the 9th and 23rd defenses. Below average PPs on both sides and a composite median PK give confidence that there will be no special teams' surge to shove this one over what should be a four or five goal finish.
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ISLE +160 at Jacket $8
The other matchup tonight between bottom tier teams is the CBus Jackets and the NY Islanders. PucksPub mate VEGAS VIC makes a strong case in favor of the Ohio club in his HNIC thread today, but we notice he's playing the ol' minus one goal line which is his way of noticing that the -180 is way too high a price for this combo of teams.
All my actuarial indicators show CBus at nothing more than a flatline (not hot, not cold) for tonight with a slight nod to their being 0-4 when playing After Scoring 1orless goals.
Meanwhile, NYI have demonstrated reasonably decent "bounceback" After Allowing 5+Goals - sporting a 4-4 record in the previous eight times they've had this role so far this season. (7-8 through last season in same role).
Jackets playing H2H vs bottom half of NHL are a decent 6-3 so far, but Islanders in same role are 7-7. So though they've been pretty easy meat for top half teams, NYI appear to be getting a bit too much smak at +160 versus a BottomHalf team, so we'll take 'em here.
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WILD/KING Undah 5.5 (-130) $8
This writeup in hindsight of the game already dropped about 30 minutes ago, but I add it to cite my reasoning on this one.
Minnesota past 20 games playing After a loss of 2+ goals has seen 14 results Under 5.5
Plus they have league's second stiffest defense to go against the Kings who are 12th. Neither team with above average scoring punch here and we think this one is not at "5" (+120) because of Kings more historic trends to be crappy on defense.
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NUCK +105 at Oil $8
Just a slightly better team playing more consistent overall hockey than are the up and down Edmontons. The -125 for Oil sure suggests a strong invite to bettors to jump on home team.
This, despite their lack of bounceback so far this year and a 1-4 record After a HomeLoss (5-11 in same role going back to last January)
Nucks meanwhile are 4-4 After a RoadWin this year and 8-2 After Allowing 1orless goals.
All in all, we like the (still) Top10 defense of Couver to keep this one nice and tight and have better than even odds to snatch us a late night win
After two consecutive days of plus results in the Betjam contest, we are of course haughty enough to presume all systems are go
Posted lines are from early AM this morning when I entered my Saturday BJam contest selections
BOLT +150 at Senator $8
BOLT/SEN Undah 5.5 (-105) $5
Here we have the first of two games tonight pairing teams from the Bottom10 of the NHL. In this case, the 30th and 27th ranked teams respectively (Sagarin).
Our rule of thumb in such matchups is to immediately look to see if one team seems way overpriced for what should be an even matchup and thus we are pleased to see what appears to be a rather silly OTT -170
TBay list of woes is lengthy, but a short term cure could be had with this non-divisional out of towner which just had a nice 3-1 upset at Montreal.
Since beginning of last season, TB is a very respectable 8-7 After a RoadWin, (2-2 this year). Not unreasonable to suggest that a crummy team gets away from home town pressures, wins a game and thus sparks at least a bit of surge for a second such win.
Ottawa counters with a team that since last spring has shown no bounce back whatsoever. Playing in games After Scoring 1orless, Sens are 1-11 since late March.
Playing H2H with teams in bottom half of league, Sens are just 4-8 while Lightning are 5-8. IOW, the two teams remain very even on paper and in performance. Give us the 3to2 takeback.
As for the Total, we get the 29th and 30th ranked offenses in the NHL versus the 9th and 23rd defenses. Below average PPs on both sides and a composite median PK give confidence that there will be no special teams' surge to shove this one over what should be a four or five goal finish.
=====
ISLE +160 at Jacket $8
The other matchup tonight between bottom tier teams is the CBus Jackets and the NY Islanders. PucksPub mate VEGAS VIC makes a strong case in favor of the Ohio club in his HNIC thread today, but we notice he's playing the ol' minus one goal line which is his way of noticing that the -180 is way too high a price for this combo of teams.
All my actuarial indicators show CBus at nothing more than a flatline (not hot, not cold) for tonight with a slight nod to their being 0-4 when playing After Scoring 1orless goals.
Meanwhile, NYI have demonstrated reasonably decent "bounceback" After Allowing 5+Goals - sporting a 4-4 record in the previous eight times they've had this role so far this season. (7-8 through last season in same role).
Jackets playing H2H vs bottom half of NHL are a decent 6-3 so far, but Islanders in same role are 7-7. So though they've been pretty easy meat for top half teams, NYI appear to be getting a bit too much smak at +160 versus a BottomHalf team, so we'll take 'em here.
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WILD/KING Undah 5.5 (-130) $8
This writeup in hindsight of the game already dropped about 30 minutes ago, but I add it to cite my reasoning on this one.
Minnesota past 20 games playing After a loss of 2+ goals has seen 14 results Under 5.5
Plus they have league's second stiffest defense to go against the Kings who are 12th. Neither team with above average scoring punch here and we think this one is not at "5" (+120) because of Kings more historic trends to be crappy on defense.
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NUCK +105 at Oil $8
Just a slightly better team playing more consistent overall hockey than are the up and down Edmontons. The -125 for Oil sure suggests a strong invite to bettors to jump on home team.
This, despite their lack of bounceback so far this year and a 1-4 record After a HomeLoss (5-11 in same role going back to last January)
Nucks meanwhile are 4-4 After a RoadWin this year and 8-2 After Allowing 1orless goals.
All in all, we like the (still) Top10 defense of Couver to keep this one nice and tight and have better than even odds to snatch us a late night win
In regard to your Islanders play.
According to Chris Botta at "Point Blank", the Islanders were put through a old fashion "bag skate" in which center Mike Sillinger pulled his groin. He's out tonight after just returning from a hip injury. He joins a long list of Islanders sitting out.
I wonder how they react tonight to yesterday's punishment by Gordon. It worked for Herb.
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According to Chris Botta at "Point Blank", the Islanders were put through a old fashion "bag skate" in which center Mike Sillinger pulled his groin. He's out tonight after just returning from a hip injury. He joins a long list of Islanders sitting out.
I wonder how they react tonight to yesterday's punishment by Gordon. It worked for Herb.
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SUNDAY, Dec 14
WILD +155 at Duck $9
Minnesota certainly feeling the pain of virtually no offense, with just three goals in past four outings - all losses.
It's the biggest scoring drought they've had since late February when they had just four goals in four games before winning at Tampa Bay 3-2. Previous to that, they had another four game/four goal stretch that ended - yep...on Dec 14 with a 5-2 win at - yep....Anaheim.
Ducks just 9-8 at Home in what has become a couple of seasons stretch for playing better Away then at Home. And we recently encountered a couple of interesting numbers pertaining to Ducks.
When playing After a game with one goal margin (either win or loss) they are 20-4.
When playing After a game where they lost by 2+ goals, they are 7-13 in past 20 and just 12-18 since beginning of last season.
A defense as good as Minnesota finds it very hard to lose more than a few in a row. And even with their scoring woes, given the rather weak spot we see for Anaheim, the 3/2 takeback seems a worthy risk here.
Best to us all for a profitable Sunday
WILD +155 at Duck $9
Minnesota certainly feeling the pain of virtually no offense, with just three goals in past four outings - all losses.
It's the biggest scoring drought they've had since late February when they had just four goals in four games before winning at Tampa Bay 3-2. Previous to that, they had another four game/four goal stretch that ended - yep...on Dec 14 with a 5-2 win at - yep....Anaheim.
Ducks just 9-8 at Home in what has become a couple of seasons stretch for playing better Away then at Home. And we recently encountered a couple of interesting numbers pertaining to Ducks.
When playing After a game with one goal margin (either win or loss) they are 20-4.
When playing After a game where they lost by 2+ goals, they are 7-13 in past 20 and just 12-18 since beginning of last season.
A defense as good as Minnesota finds it very hard to lose more than a few in a row. And even with their scoring woes, given the rather weak spot we see for Anaheim, the 3/2 takeback seems a worthy risk here.
Best to us all for a profitable Sunday
VERY VERY pleased to find that someone has just uploaded the bulk of Bugs Henderson's live CD "That's the Truth" to youtube
It was the first Bugs CD I scored back in 1999 and one that just rips for guitar
Here is Blue Casino
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It was the first Bugs CD I scored back in 1999 and one that just rips for guitar
Here is Blue Casino
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Or if you prefer a dish of Heartbreak Gumbo (this one requires Pretty Much Maximum Volume and don't EVEN try to air guitar it)
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WW, you saw it better than I for sure as Minny only manages two goals in 28 shots.
I'll offer a friendly rebuttal that the historically meager LA defense is in fact fairly stiff this season - currently 10th in the NHL
And...dig it...#1....yep....#1 for SOG Allowed at 26.0
I'll offer a friendly rebuttal that the historically meager LA defense is in fact fairly stiff this season - currently 10th in the NHL
And...dig it...#1....yep....#1 for SOG Allowed at 26.0
Dec 14 summary
0-1 (-9.00)
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MONDAY, Dec 15
SHARK/KING Undah 5.5 (-110) $10
See my previous post above wherein I take note that the Kings defense, #10 in the NHL, is also #1 in Shots Allowed at 26.0
And here they host the #3 overall defense in San Jose
Seven of past nine H2H between these two clubs finished Under 5.5
San Jose 13-20 overall vs 5.5 in past 33 divisional games.
San Jose past 21 games After a Game with 7+ combined goals has seen just five top 5.5
Finally, with Kings having allowed one goal in last outing, we're in another very strong role. Leaguewide, Top10 Defensive teams playing After Allowing 1orless goals see the next game finish Under 5.5 at a 62% pace.
Best to us all for a profitable Monday
0-1 (-9.00)
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MONDAY, Dec 15
SHARK/KING Undah 5.5 (-110) $10
See my previous post above wherein I take note that the Kings defense, #10 in the NHL, is also #1 in Shots Allowed at 26.0
And here they host the #3 overall defense in San Jose
Seven of past nine H2H between these two clubs finished Under 5.5
San Jose 13-20 overall vs 5.5 in past 33 divisional games.
San Jose past 21 games After a Game with 7+ combined goals has seen just five top 5.5
Finally, with Kings having allowed one goal in last outing, we're in another very strong role. Leaguewide, Top10 Defensive teams playing After Allowing 1orless goals see the next game finish Under 5.5 at a 62% pace.
Best to us all for a profitable Monday
Adding
KING +0.5 (-105) vs Shark $6
This price sure suggests a lure for Shark -0.5 (-105), but I think Kings have a decent shot to play to OT or maybe even snatch a regtime win, given their very strong (and I believe very overlooked by JoePuckBettor) defense, which is even stiffer at home (2.46 per game).
LA in 19 home games so far this season are 14-5 when graded at +0.5 for first 60 minutes. Sharks 7-4 playing Away when graded at -0.5.
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ADVANCE NOTE pertaining to my writeup style in coming days/weeks:
Any and all references to half goal spreads are associated with Regtime wagers only.
KING +0.5 (-105) vs Shark $6
This price sure suggests a lure for Shark -0.5 (-105), but I think Kings have a decent shot to play to OT or maybe even snatch a regtime win, given their very strong (and I believe very overlooked by JoePuckBettor) defense, which is even stiffer at home (2.46 per game).
LA in 19 home games so far this season are 14-5 when graded at +0.5 for first 60 minutes. Sharks 7-4 playing Away when graded at -0.5.
============
ADVANCE NOTE pertaining to my writeup style in coming days/weeks:
Any and all references to half goal spreads are associated with Regtime wagers only.
Final note for Monday...
WINGS are a not-so-mighty 2-7 at -0.5 when playing After an OT game and just 3-13 if we roll it back into last spring.
However, Colorado is likely just a bit too weak in this matchup to be worth a shot at +0.5 (+139). They're 7-8 so far this season Away at +0.5, but their Split results between Top15 teams and Bottom15 teams is dramatic with the former group pretty much beating their ass in first 10 weeks of season.
WINGS are a not-so-mighty 2-7 at -0.5 when playing After an OT game and just 3-13 if we roll it back into last spring.
However, Colorado is likely just a bit too weak in this matchup to be worth a shot at +0.5 (+139). They're 7-8 so far this season Away at +0.5, but their Split results between Top15 teams and Bottom15 teams is dramatic with the former group pretty much beating their ass in first 10 weeks of season.
Dec 15 summary
2-0 (holy cow) +16.00
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Celebrate by trying this one on for size.....If you can name the tune before the vocals kick in, you win a cookie.
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2-0 (holy cow) +16.00
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Celebrate by trying this one on for size.....If you can name the tune before the vocals kick in, you win a cookie.
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urk...a bit of a flyer (no pun intended) with the COL selection since Philly had to date only beaten -1.5 one time at Home.
I did pull both my Contest selections (ATL and DAL), plus I honestly had a real strong lean that NJ/TOR would go to OT, thus making TOR +0.5 a viable call.
Feeling fairly decent overall.
Was readin ICEMAN's ICE IN THE DESERT thread where he details having a very rough two week losing stretch that ran contrary to his historically being profitable. Reminded me that best thing when struggling, as I have during Nov 18-Dec 10 stretch is to just relax.
Stop real world wagers and continue doing my work.
Tonight was my first night back with real life wagers in about three weeks and i immediately lost the $5 and two NBAs..heh
all good...Down real world $17
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Dec 16 summary
1-1 (-5.00)
I did pull both my Contest selections (ATL and DAL), plus I honestly had a real strong lean that NJ/TOR would go to OT, thus making TOR +0.5 a viable call.
Feeling fairly decent overall.
Was readin ICEMAN's ICE IN THE DESERT thread where he details having a very rough two week losing stretch that ran contrary to his historically being profitable. Reminded me that best thing when struggling, as I have during Nov 18-Dec 10 stretch is to just relax.
Stop real world wagers and continue doing my work.
Tonight was my first night back with real life wagers in about three weeks and i immediately lost the $5 and two NBAs..heh
all good...Down real world $17
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Dec 16 summary
1-1 (-5.00)
