Why does everything think Iowa and New Hampshire is the whole ballgame. Not necessarily. Do you realize that Clinton lost both in '92? He finished 4th in Iowa with a whopping 4% and then 2nd in NH 12 pts behind with 22%. Iowa and NH do not wrap it up for Dean. The Feb. 3 primaries will be critical -- there are SEVEN of them. That will be the day that will tell alot. Iowa and NH will not seal the deal for Dean. Watch for South Car., Okla and AZ on Feb. 3 being key states.
And yes, Dean is going to win NH, buty Clark hasn't "conceded" it. Polls show he is in 3rd just barely behind Kerry there. If he can pull ahead and finish 2nd that would be a big boon heading into Feb. 3 where he has a real chance to win. I've seen polls showing he's leading in SC and Arizona. Once again, remeber that's exactly what his Arkansas and Rhodes Scholar brethren did in '92.
It's hard to see anyone other than Dean, Gephardt or Clark winning though.
And yes, Dean is going to win NH, buty Clark hasn't "conceded" it. Polls show he is in 3rd just barely behind Kerry there. If he can pull ahead and finish 2nd that would be a big boon heading into Feb. 3 where he has a real chance to win. I've seen polls showing he's leading in SC and Arizona. Once again, remeber that's exactly what his Arkansas and Rhodes Scholar brethren did in '92.
It's hard to see anyone other than Dean, Gephardt or Clark winning though.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
Why does everything think Iowa and New Hampshire is the whole ballgame. Not necessarily. Do you realize that Clinton lost both in '92? He finished 4th in Iowa with a whopping 4% and then 2nd in NH 12 pts behind with 22%. Iowa and NH do not wrap it up for Dean. The Feb. 3 primaries will be critical -- there are SEVEN of them. That will be the day that will tell alot. Iowa and NH will not seal the deal for Dean. Watch for South Car., Okla and AZ on Feb. 3 being key states.
And yes, Dean is going to win NH, buty Clark hasn't "conceded" it. Polls show he is in 3rd just barely behind Kerry there. If he can pull ahead and finish 2nd that would be a big boon heading into Feb. 3 where he has a real chance to win. I've seen polls showing he's leading in SC and Arizona. Once again, remeber that's exactly what his Arkansas and Rhodes Scholar brethren did in '92.
It's hard to see anyone other than Dean, Gephardt or Clark winning though.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
The difference is that in 1992, Iowa had its own favorite son running so most candidates didn't bother campaigning there. In New Hampshire the same was true to an extent. Clinton basically spun the primary as a race for 2nd (he had to beat Bob Kerry), since Paul Tsongas was from Mass and everyone expected him to win. When Clinton beat Bob Kerry for 2nd, he declared himself the Comeback kid and turned the race into a showdown between him and Tsongas. Tsongas showed no appeal outside the northeast, and didn't get the expected bump from winning NH because of Clinton's 'victory'. Super Tuesday was dominated by southern states, so Clinton rolled Tsongas there and cruised towards the nomination.
Clark has none of the appeal Clinton did. He has nothing going for him other than being a former General. which in the end turned into no strength at all because he mimicked what the other Dwarfs were saying about the war. Had he taken a more positive approach, Clark may have captured the moderate Dem voters who oppose the scorched earth campaign Dean is running.
Too late now.
Why does everything think Iowa and New Hampshire is the whole ballgame. Not necessarily. Do you realize that Clinton lost both in '92? He finished 4th in Iowa with a whopping 4% and then 2nd in NH 12 pts behind with 22%. Iowa and NH do not wrap it up for Dean. The Feb. 3 primaries will be critical -- there are SEVEN of them. That will be the day that will tell alot. Iowa and NH will not seal the deal for Dean. Watch for South Car., Okla and AZ on Feb. 3 being key states.
And yes, Dean is going to win NH, buty Clark hasn't "conceded" it. Polls show he is in 3rd just barely behind Kerry there. If he can pull ahead and finish 2nd that would be a big boon heading into Feb. 3 where he has a real chance to win. I've seen polls showing he's leading in SC and Arizona. Once again, remeber that's exactly what his Arkansas and Rhodes Scholar brethren did in '92.
It's hard to see anyone other than Dean, Gephardt or Clark winning though.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
The difference is that in 1992, Iowa had its own favorite son running so most candidates didn't bother campaigning there. In New Hampshire the same was true to an extent. Clinton basically spun the primary as a race for 2nd (he had to beat Bob Kerry), since Paul Tsongas was from Mass and everyone expected him to win. When Clinton beat Bob Kerry for 2nd, he declared himself the Comeback kid and turned the race into a showdown between him and Tsongas. Tsongas showed no appeal outside the northeast, and didn't get the expected bump from winning NH because of Clinton's 'victory'. Super Tuesday was dominated by southern states, so Clinton rolled Tsongas there and cruised towards the nomination.
Clark has none of the appeal Clinton did. He has nothing going for him other than being a former General. which in the end turned into no strength at all because he mimicked what the other Dwarfs were saying about the war. Had he taken a more positive approach, Clark may have captured the moderate Dem voters who oppose the scorched earth campaign Dean is running.
Too late now.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
Grand Slam, you said it better than I could have. What does "scorched earth campaign Dean is running" mean?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, I'm referring to his "Destroy Bush at all costs" campaign style. In my opinion he is destroying the Democratic party while trying to win its nomination.
Grand Slam, you said it better than I could have. What does "scorched earth campaign Dean is running" mean?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, I'm referring to his "Destroy Bush at all costs" campaign style. In my opinion he is destroying the Democratic party while trying to win its nomination.
Other than Dean being strong in Iowa (but he still may lose) I see a lot of paralells to Clinton in '92. Tsongas wasn't from NH himself. He was from a neghboring state just as Dean is. Dean is strongest in the NE of course and he's been working so hard in Iowa for a year so he does well there. Nationally howvever I don't believe he's as strong as people think. You hardly even see polls from other states and from those I've seen none of them have shown him leading anywhere. Why do we just assume he'll win other places?
Clark can make the headlines if he finishes 2nd in NH beating out Kerry from a neighboring state. That may just knock Kerry out altogether. Win SC and knock Edwards out. Super Tuesday is still dominated by Southern states where Clark can do well, just like Clinton did.
I think it's just your opinion that Clark doesn't have appeal. It's definitely not too late.
Clark can make the headlines if he finishes 2nd in NH beating out Kerry from a neighboring state. That may just knock Kerry out altogether. Win SC and knock Edwards out. Super Tuesday is still dominated by Southern states where Clark can do well, just like Clinton did.
I think it's just your opinion that Clark doesn't have appeal. It's definitely not too late.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
Clark made a big splash when he first announced. His poll numbers have been fading ever since. I don't see any appeal from him. He would make a good VP candidate though.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, not true really. Check the numbers in NH. He was at 2% just after he announced. It' sbeen climbibg ever since and is now 11% in NH just behind Kerry at 13% who's fallen from 24% during that time. He is the one who has picked up significant steam during that time. There was an article at MSNBC Demo Derby this week about how he's climbing. His campaign was really poorly organized the first couple of weeks during that "splash" but from what I see they've really hit their stride lately. It'll be interestsed to see how his testimony at the Hague is received, given that the Bush Admin has basically ordered it silenced. Betcha Rove was unduly interested in that decision.
Clark made a big splash when he first announced. His poll numbers have been fading ever since. I don't see any appeal from him. He would make a good VP candidate though.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, not true really. Check the numbers in NH. He was at 2% just after he announced. It' sbeen climbibg ever since and is now 11% in NH just behind Kerry at 13% who's fallen from 24% during that time. He is the one who has picked up significant steam during that time. There was an article at MSNBC Demo Derby this week about how he's climbing. His campaign was really poorly organized the first couple of weeks during that "splash" but from what I see they've really hit their stride lately. It'll be interestsed to see how his testimony at the Hague is received, given that the Bush Admin has basically ordered it silenced. Betcha Rove was unduly interested in that decision.
D2bets, you can't be serious! When Clark first announced he had a lead over Dean nationally in the polls. Since then he has faded. Your comeback arguement is that its not really true because Clark has risen in the polls in NH? Thats an absurd point. I am sure you may be able to find another city or state where Clark has risen in the polls but the facts are clear, his national appeal has slipped and I don't see how he can reverse the trend.
Funny, I think it's exactly opposite. I've yet to see a NATIONAL poll which shows Dean with a big lead voer Clark -- every national poll I've seen since Clark entered has the two in a statistical dead heat. It's not the national appeal that's a problem, it's the support in the key early states that's the issue, where Dean has been campaigning for over a year and has much more organization. That's the problem, not national support. I'll see if I can find a recent national poll...do you have one?
D2bets, When Clark entered the race, the networks did a poll and Clark was on top. It did not last long as Clark faded as expected. The recent polls I have seen shows a two man race with Dean ahead but not by a wide margin. The political experts all agree that if Dean wins the first two primaries he will be tough to beat because of the momentum he will have. Dean is already spending money for the Feb primary and has wide appeal. It will be difficult for Clark to raise money if Dean wins the first two primaries also. Its not much of a prediction to say Dean will win but I am trying to see a way how Clark can emerge and overtake Dean and I just can't.
There's no question Dean is the favorite and it's probably better than 50/50 that he wins. But I just can't agree that "he has it wrapped up". If you really think so then you might want to take a look at Pinnacle who has Dean -144/+124 to win the nomination. -144 is pretty damn good odds for a contest that is "wrapepd up". Most people would probably see that -144 now and look at it as a gift -- I know what it usually means when I think Pinnacle is giving gifts. Politics may not eb their thing but I'm not sure there's anything that Pinnacle isn't sharp at.
Momentum is an expectations game. We already know that Dean is going to win NH so it's hard to get momentum off that. If Clark finishes 2nd there that will be the unexpected and that may gain as many headlines and can give him momentum as the alternative to Dean, which can be very appealing in the South.
Momentum is an expectations game. We already know that Dean is going to win NH so it's hard to get momentum off that. If Clark finishes 2nd there that will be the unexpected and that may gain as many headlines and can give him momentum as the alternative to Dean, which can be very appealing in the South.
I bought Dean contracts at WSEX for $61. Thanks for Pinnacle odds, I did not know they had it up. According to the TV experts, Clark has just about caught Kerry in NH and will probably run 2nd behind Dean. Kerry is all but buried. D2bets, I think you should grab the -144 at Pinnacle. Politics is one thing, but money is another!
You can't lay too much at this stage because of what could come up. If no big scandal breaks and Hillary stays out, there is no reason Dean doesn't win the nomination easily. Further I think the pundits are fooling themselves if they think Dean has no chance to beat Bush. So much can happen between now and the conventions and even more so now and November. I think Dean though has created the blueprint, think big. All these Dems are out at each other's throat or more often just going after Dean. Dean started from day one saying I will settle for nothing less than the Presidency. That is key because it gets him above a lot of the bog of politics. Sure the time will come when he will have to face issues and fight his character against someone else, but bottom line is so far the guy and his people are performing flawlessly. It isn't a statement on his politics by me, just an observation at how they are approaching everything. I never could have imagined this guy being anywhere near the spot he is now, but it has been brilliantly done so far and putting money on anyone else in the Dem field is just a waste IMO.
Latest national poll I saw within the last week had Dean 18, Clark 14, Gephardt 13 and so on. We all know Dean has a slight edge over Gephardt in Iowa and leads by a country mile in NH. But do we really know a lot about the Fen 3. states? I don't think Dean has any of those locked up. Those national polls tell me that outside of Iowa and NH which he has been canvassing for a year almost endlessly, he doesn't have overhwlming support at all. I just think his style and background won't necessarily play well in the likes of SC, Okla and AZ. IF Dean beats Gephardt in Iowa, then I think essentially the race for 2nd in NH will determine who will have achance to take him on Feb. 3 and beyond. Clark can finish 2nd and he can definitely win SC, OKla and AZ. If he puts those in his pocket thent eh race is on. Again, I just don't think Pinnacle is in the business of giving money away. If it were apparently locked up he'd be -250 or maybe -300.
I just think it's down to Dean, Gephardt and Clark right now. Gephardt has to win Iowa to move on and Clark needs 2nd in NH. If neither of those happens then Dean is 90% in because Kerry can't compete even with a 2nd in NH....that's his backyard, a weak 2nd doesn't impress after he was neck and neck with Dean months ago. Clark finsihing 2nd is news because he will have come from way behind and passed Kerry in his backyard. That will eb a story and provide momentum. Everyone else, like Lieberman and Edwards are just hopeless anyway. All in all I'd say -144 is a fair price. Dean has the pole position but the race is certainly not over.
I just think it's down to Dean, Gephardt and Clark right now. Gephardt has to win Iowa to move on and Clark needs 2nd in NH. If neither of those happens then Dean is 90% in because Kerry can't compete even with a 2nd in NH....that's his backyard, a weak 2nd doesn't impress after he was neck and neck with Dean months ago. Clark finsihing 2nd is news because he will have come from way behind and passed Kerry in his backyard. That will eb a story and provide momentum. Everyone else, like Lieberman and Edwards are just hopeless anyway. All in all I'd say -144 is a fair price. Dean has the pole position but the race is certainly not over.
