day before del mar plays

mazeltrick · Jul 20, 2005

well, the del mar meet has arrived, and not a moment too soon. the final week at hollywood is a ghost town as the trainers, owners, horses and player eye opening day. up until the last few years, del mar was typically my worst meet from an ROI perspective on the SoCal circuit, but i've had a fair amount of success the last two seasons. i'll give you my plays, but i caution everyone to watch how the track is playing the first few years, because del mar typically has the most pronounced biases (usually speed favoring) of the three major tracks down here. there are some days you can blindly bet the inside two runners and make a ton of cash....

r3: sunshine dreamer. i have a soft spot for charlenesuperblend, who has made me a tiny fortune in her del mar career, but i will side with 'dreamer who goes off the drop for mitchell. you can expect the usual suspects- mitchell, mullins, spawr, cerin, o'neill- to have their guns loaded for the meet.

r4: dealer's choice is a monster. ok, that's hyperbole as he hasn't lived up to the hype in his two races at belmont, but he will be flying down the stretch and win this race, unless we are dealing with a turf course that favors speed.

r6: avanti avanti. clearly the weaker half of the the oceanside stakes here and 'vanti won powerfully last time out for mcanally. he's not nearly as seasoned as the rest so the price should be right and even the final time of his last won't wow anybody, i like the way this son of royal academy strode out.

r7: bro lo. pval and o'neill with an in excess firster. hmn. i haven't see the morning line yet, so i may be advocating a dose of heavy chalk, but this one looks ready to go. if we're staring 4/5 in the face, may i recommend the wesley ward second timer, excessatory, provided that one draws in off the AE list.

r8: khyber pass. i've been waiting to bet this one about three times since his last game win in april. he's been scratched a bunch of times from tough spots and now goes back tot he turf for cerin. i think el robalr is the one to beat, but 'pass has good tactical speed and is a very game horse when challenged. i'd prefer pval, but gogo will suffice.

CervezaRedux · Jul 20, 2005

Good luck mazel! I am going to be charting Del Mar this year and will dedicate most of my bankroll to it. I remember in the old days (for me that's Nakatani's apprentice year - 1989 maybe? - although a friend of mine swears we saw him ride in Caliente in '88) the inside speed bias was something everyone talked about. I remember my buddies and I sitting in traffic on the freeway on the ride up to the track arguing about which horse would make the lead. One guy driving and the other three of us with forms spread out making notations and loudly justifying our selections - me, I always found a way to include anything ridden by Eddie D. on my tickets.
I watched Sunday Silence work out there that year and made some good money on a Derby contender named Mr. Frisky. Saratoga is great, Keeneland is something special, but when it comes to the horse racing experience, I will always prefer Del Mar.

champs · Jul 20, 2005

Maz - I charted the card out last night also. I came up with the same picks for the first 3 you have. That kinda makes me feel as maybe I finally know what to look for. Best of Luck to you. Looking forward for your plays for the entire Del Mar Meet. And Now I head off to where the TURF MEETS THE SURF AT OLD DELMAR. Best of Luck to everyone

Assistance to some of the race cards today:

http://members.cox.net/mfernkes/horse_page.htm

CervezaRedux · Jul 20, 2005

tough beat there Maze - never thought they'd DQ Patrick for a bump like that.

mazeltrick · Jul 20, 2005

that DQ was a f-ing joke. i'm still waiting for patrick to survive a steward's inquiry, even now that the senile and infirm Pete Pedersen has finally been put to pasture. i would advise all jockeys who run second in a race patrick wins to claim foul- i would venture he'd get taken down half the time regardless....