Dan's Thursday Hoops (8-3 YTD)

[dangots0uL]

2-0 big plays
3-2 regular plays
3-1 small plays

LIKING LA -5.5..
gonna wait cause i see this line getting better

Slight lean on Over210, but probably a no-play.

Need to research more

No official plays yet.. but almost certain i'm going to play LA.. just how much is the question...

How y'all feel????

I know public likes Denver +5.5... so gimme your reasons...

Lets FIGURE THIS OUT!!!

 

[dangots0uL]

Also getting on Orlando +9 tomorrow before this line drops

 

[JimmyJet]

<><> Lakers is my play too. Good Luck Dan!

 

[dangots0uL]

not gonna go all in detail cause i dont have the time today, but basically... Lakers shot 42% to Denvers 48%... Look at their matchups historically... Lakers always out O-Reb Denver by like 10. That means 10 more shots. Also i give the TO edge to the lakers cause they at home and home crowd blah blah.

I don't see the lakers shooting 42% at home again. No One shot over 50% or at least almost no on, including kobe. Lakers did not get to the line like they usually do in this series. Only reason Thuggets kept it close was cause the front court played amazing... Won't happen again. Bynum won't foul out in like 10 minutes again.. phil will make adjustments. Same goes for Melo... 14/20 was it? 4/5 from 3. Lakers will give him different looks. Honestly, i hope lamar gets pissed off cause he can D it up when he's into it... see houston series.

that was longer than i intended.

Honestly, i dont see this one being close.. i see Lakers shoot around 45 - 50.. with Denver below 45... and with the ammount of shots the lakers get from O-rebs.. this should be 10 point victory.

ANd if it does manage to stay close.. fouling in 4th quarter pushes it over IMO. At least, I'll take my odds it will.

Of course this assumings lakers go into fourth with some lead. Lakers are a 4th quarter team... so either way.. I'm like this bet.

I'm going with a Regular play... only cause Denver is some rid 11-0 ATS in play offs. and they shot 65% FTs last game, game some stupid mistakes and was out coached.

Maybe a little on the over later.

 

[HacheMan]

Best of luck dan

I'm playing LA as well.......

 

[HOGAN]

I will post this again. Denver has not lost a game by more than 2 points. The two teams ussualy score more points in game 2 than game 1, and the total has dropped some. Denver covers this game. No question. The only thing that scares me is maybe Lakers only get 85 points making this game an under. But reguardless of what happens Denver gets over 100 points. Lakers never show unless they have too or unless it is a Friday or Saturday night, they did not win the last game, it was handed to them, their foot is off of the accelerator and they are coasting. Denver is more hungry for this win and will get it out right. This game goes over IF Lakers show up for a couple of quarters. But I see this slipping under because they don't score their part. Denver will get as high as 110-120.

BOL.

 

[HOGAN]

JMO, who the hell am I? But still Denver is my play or pass, still thinking on the over under, may follow someone on that.

 

[dangots0uL]

Whats "JMO" mean?

My concern is the exact opposite... in fact i think LA is hungrier... won't go into detail about that for time reasons.

Can u talk to me more about why you feel Denver will go over 100? I mean.. the bigs + melo played AMAZING last game and got to 105? the team shot flipping 48 percent and 3s were falling too... I don't expect the bigs to show up next game or LA's bigs motivated to make up for their shitty ass effort last game. And when LA goes up big on a swing.. i see Melo taking some forced 3s/long 2s... I expect so physical play out there.. knock him down a few times to take him out of rhythem.. MAKE MELO BEAT YOU.. and against the LA crowd I'm if he can do it. Of course Billups has always been the one to calm this team down and get some easy FTs... but Kobe is gonna b on him and no doubt Kobe can D him up.. Billups has not been doing that good in their matchups historically

 

[HOGAN]

JMO=Just my opinion, sorry. I like everything you wrote and in fact it is all true. Exept motivation. Lakers need to be motivated, like the Houston series, no motovation. Even the Jazz covered the spread 3 of the 5 games against them, Houston 4 of 7, but Houston and Jazz sucks. Lakers have more talent and are the favorites. But Denver is the more motivated team. They show EVERY game. Whether up 3-0 or down 0-3, they come to play, Lakers only show up when they have to ! They have only covered 5 of the 13 games they have played, the one's they did cover they covered by a land slide, and that seems to me all people remember. I have a philosiphy, if you can bet against the Lakers do. If they are in a must win, bet the Lakers. Lakers never blow anyone out when they don't have to win. They may win but not by maore than 2 or 3. If Lakers show to play the score will be 108-110. If they don't the score will be 115 to 89.

 

[HOGAN]

I wish I had the balls to follow you yesterday, but vowed to ride Clev until they did not cover, was a nice ride while it lasted.

 

[dangots0uL]

I wish I had the balls to follow you yesterday, but vowed to ride Clev until they did not cover, was a nice ride while it lasted.

Ridding Cleveland was not a bad idea.. made you more $$ than it lost you fosho ... ridding Denver isn't a bad idea either... your right about Denver showing every game... your analysis has lead to make a small play on the Over 210 =)

The reason i feel LA is motivated.. maybe not more than denver, but MORE SO THAN LAST GAME was cause every member of that team UNDERPERFORMED from what they can. Everyone, especially Gasol, has got a chip (maybe a small one, but a chip nevertheless) on their shoulder to show this LA crowd that they can ball. If i'm Ariza, Odom, Gasol (fuck bynum, hes proven to me hes a pussy) or Fisher.. I'm going out there and showing this LA crowd I can shoot 50%+ that I can crash the boards... that I'm legit... Honestly, how many celebrities where there today? I saw Spike Lee (with the high 5 roflcopters =) ), denzel, michelle kwan, jack nicholson there... And All eyes are on them y'no? like at least, more so than EVER this SEASON. The bigs i listed earlier got beat by kenyon with his ghetto as shot, Nene who only plays Offense and no defense, and the BIRDMANNN went in for a few running lay ups over laker bigs. Honestly, IF I'm a laker i hate the birdman, but i'm not so he rox xD. I guess what i'm trying to say is individual the lakers played like shit, sure they got the win (TY refs + Carl for inbounding with the little dude and Ariza for doing something not useless today). On more point about 4th quarter play... if Billups does not make those prayer 3s in the end their... Denver fouls again and this game might have by a 6 point victory by the lakers. This is so disorganized man LOL, but lakers went to the line 22, 24 times? that game... If I'm a laker or phil jackson, i'm making sure the lakers shoot more than 24 times... look at the series historically... 24 is LOW.

Lets look at the flipside.. whats George Carl going to tell his team.. "guys we play good, keep that up and we'll win".. he COULDN"T have asked for a better game from his bigs and Melo... all he can stress to improve, that i can see, is LETS GET THOSE DEF BOARDS!!!, cause lakers got 10 more than them and thats what allows 42% shooting with less FTs to beat 48% shooting. But c'mon... Gasol got amazing hands, Bynum CANNOT do worse than he did today (lol what am i smoking, this guy turns back into the 17 year old they drafted when it comes to the play offs) and Ariza is a fricken monkey, Odom is no joke either... I suppose you CAN motivate a team rebound better... but honestly, i played organized ball for almost 10 years... rebounding is like instinct man. You can't teach / motivate that.. and Nene... this guy don't play D... i dont see him making up one day and deciding to do that.

From a coaches standpoint.. Carl doesn't have much adjustments to make.. just keep his team playing the way they have been... but Phil on the other hand will get his bigs ON IT... throw something at Melo.. and honestly i dont think prideful and cocky (i say this, because i've been watching him and he doesn't show it openly, but this fool is C-O-C-K-Y) likes getting beat by his "best friend from the olympics"... cockiness is all relative man.. you gotta be BETTER than your oponenet and if your opponent just show'd you up like that in front of national TV and isn't suppose to be able to that you MR. 7 time 1st defensive team player... your gonna do something about it the next time you CAN. Additionally on the offensive end i will take Gasol against Nene all night long... and i think phil knows that. Instead of this dribble drive one-on-one kick it out to fisher offense... lets see the triangle in its brilliance huh? I'm counting on Phil to make sure that happens... Spike lees documentary gave us big insight, or at least gave me big insight, into how the lakers and bulls triangle is run.. its like organized streetballing LOL... so phil will make this more organized than pathetic 1-on-1 ball and tell his team to get it into gasol.

Playoffs are about adjustments, y'no? See Lakers/Hou.. see whatever... when teams go head to head back to back.. its about adjustments alright.. and honestly i feel the only one adjusting here is the Lakers.. Like i said before, what can George Carl tell his team? keep doing what ur doing. What, is he going to pre-empt adjustments phil MIGHT make. LOL GL. I think that fucks you more than it helps you.

Hey.. thats my take HOGAN... made the LA bet so no turning back hahaha. GL to you sir and thanks for the info.. I will taking the Over small (i never like making big bets on over/unders)

 

[HOGAN]

Playoffs are about adjustments, y'no? See Lakers/Hou.. see whatever... when teams go head to head back to back.. its about adjustments alright.. and honestly i feel the only one adjusting here is the Lakers.. Like i said before, what can George Carl tell his team? keep doing what ur doing. What, is he going to pre-empt adjustments phil MIGHT make. LOL GL. I think that fucks you more than it helps you.

That my friend is the question of the day and really has me thinking, I will get back to you on that one. One thing he could say is don't hand them the game with no time left.

 

[dangots0uL]

Playoffs are about adjustments, y'no? See Lakers/Hou.. see whatever... when teams go head to head back to back.. its about adjustments alright.. and honestly i feel the only one adjusting here is the Lakers.. Like i said before, what can George Carl tell his team? keep doing what ur doing. What, is he going to pre-empt adjustments phil MIGHT make. LOL GL. I think that fucks you more than it helps you.

That my friend is the question of the day and really has me thinking, I will get back to you on that one. One thing he could say is don't hand them the game with no time left.

Looking forward to it =)

He should def tell martin that n ammount of flat running hook shots can make up for the dumbass foul he commited with 30 seconds left

 

[ivan722]

I will post this again. Denver has not lost a game by more than 2 points. The two teams ussualy score more points in game 2 than game 1, and the total has dropped some. Denver covers this game. No question. The only thing that scares me is maybe Lakers only get 85 points making this game an under. But reguardless of what happens Denver gets over 100 points. Lakers never show unless they have too or unless it is a Friday or Saturday night, they did not win the last game, it was handed to them, their foot is off of the accelerator and they are coasting. Denver is more hungry for this win and will get it out right. This game goes over IF Lakers show up for a couple of quarters. But I see this slipping under because they don't score their part. Denver will get as high as 110-120.

BOL.

Interesting comments in 'bold' Hogan.
So the Nuggets win outright and score 100+ points tonight.
Interesting to hear your postgame comments as well---win or lose.

@)

 

[HOGAN]

Interesting comments in 'bold' Hogan.
So the Nuggets win outright and score 100+ points tonight.
Interesting to hear your postgame comments as well---win or lose.

@)

Deal. I have never been wrong. HAHA, but I am not going anywhere, not hiding either, Joey Hogan.

 

[HOGAN]

BOL which ever side you take.

 

[HOGAN]

1st quarter summary, Laker A game is on, getting the calls, Lake show should win by double digits.

 

[dangots0uL]

1st half summary, Lakers show us why we don't bet on time.. over looking good.. thanks for the tip HOGAN =D.

As long as lakers keep the lead.. fouls can make this close... this assumes they dont blow them out or vice versa

 

[HOGAN]

Over is going to be close, i got 111 1/2.

 

[HOGAN]

over for me is gone, 111 1/2 is too far with only 26 sec left. Sorry for that bad tip.