Danester's NFL Lines - Week-4

[Danester]

This is the Danester's game simulation handicap lines and totas for Week-4. They are based on 250,000 games simulations. Season to date statistics.
-----------------------------
Team divison Line
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Chargers wd 0.8
Patriots ed 64.8
-----------------------------
Broncos wd 36.1
Jaguars sd 9.6
-----------------------------
Texans sd 42.3
Bengals nd 26.4
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Colts sd 12.3
Titans sd 26.8
-----------------------------
Eagles ed 7.8
Chiefs wd 37.6
-----------------------------
Lions nd 29.7
Bucs sd 16.6
-----------------------------
Rams wd 69.6
Giants ed 10.1
------------------------------
Bills ed 2.7
Saints sd 34.3
------------------------------
Seahawks wd 24.6
Redskins ed 7.0
------------------------------
Jets ed 7.5
Ravens nd 28.2
------------------------------
Vikings nd 41.5
Falcons sd 14.1
------------------------------
Cowboys ed 7.8
Raiders wd 58.3
-------------------------------
49ers wd 5.5
Cardinals wd 62.3
--------------------------------
Packers nd 42.8
Panthers sd 11.9
---------------------------------

 

[jwblue]

What is nd, wd, sd?

IS

 

[Danester]

This is how it looks without...

"nd" is North Divison, "sd" is South Divison. This is how it looks without the Divisional infor. The smaller number is the handicapped margin of victory line, and the larger number is the projected game total scoring.
-----------------------------
Team...Line&Total
-----------------------------
Chargers 0.8
Patriots 64.8
-----------------------------
Broncos 36.1
Jaguars 9.6
-----------------------------
Texans 42.3
Bengals 26.4
-----------------------------
Colts 12.3
Titans 26.8
-----------------------------
Eagles 7.8
Chiefs 37.6
-----------------------------
Lions 29.7
Bucs 16.6
-----------------------------
Rams 69.6
Giants 10.1
------------------------------
Bills 2.7
Saints 34.3
------------------------------
Seahawks 24.6
Redskins 7.0
------------------------------
Jets 7.5
Ravens 28.2
------------------------------
Vikings 41.5
Falcons 14.1
------------------------------
Cowboys 7.8
Raiders 58.3
-------------------------------
49ers 5.5
Cardinals 62.3
--------------------------------
Packers 42.8
Panthers 11.9
---------------------------------
You have to remember it is only Week 4, and some Bye teams only have 2-weeks stats under their belt.... so yes these numbers may be a little wild yet. The totals are probably a little better indicator this early in the season. So, based on the above information I bet the following Tuesday night at the Palace Station here in Las Vegas.

Chargers/Pats Over 47

Colts/Titans Under 45

Rams/Giants Over 46

Seahawks/Redskins Under 36.5

Cowboys/Raiders Over 46

49ers/Cardinals Over 42

 

[jwblue]

How succesful has this system been over the years?

IS

 

[Danester]

I use about 25 different numerical barometers. The Simulation Line is just one of them. It takes all of that plus a "little feel" just hopefully stay in the range of 56-58 % each season. Overcoming the bookmaker's edge (4.5%) is always tuff in the NFL. And, it goes in streaks and it's generally never exactly 56% each week - a wild ride to average 56-58 % after the Super Bowl - that's the goal.

 

[Danester]

The Danester's bets go 4-2-0 (66.6%) for NFL Week-4

The Danester's bets go 4-2-0 (66.6%) for NFL Week-4

Chargers/Pats Over 47 (W)

Colts/Titans Under 45 (W)

Rams/Giants Over 46 (W)

Seahawks/Redskins Under 36.5 (L) lose by hook in OT

Cowboys/Raiders Over 46 (L)

49ers/Cardinals Over 42 (W)

 

[btwizzy]

Nice picks.