Daily MLB betting trends, insights and THE BAT X analysis for Wednesday, Sept. 28

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Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
+100O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)
-120
Right-hander Luis Cessa is expected to start today for Cincinnati, while right-hander Bryse Wilson gets the nod at home for Pittsburgh. Cessa enters this contest with a 4.78 ERA, backed up by a 5.18 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Wilson, meanwhile, has a 5.29 FIP underlying his 5.95 ERA. The last time Luis Cessa was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the Reds lost 3-5 against the Brewers. He left allowing 2 earned runs and recording 3 strikeouts with 4 walks. Wilson's last start was against the Cubs, when the Pirates lost 5-6. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 2 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 3 walks.
Reds Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Luis Cessa has averaged 74.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 7th percentile.
  2. Stuart Fairchild has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  3. Jonathan India has a high pull rate on his flyballs (39.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences today.
Pirates Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bryse Wilson has utilized his secondary offerings 7.6% more often this season (44.1%) than he did last year (36.5%).
  2. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jack Suwinski has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
  3. The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with an underlying K% over 30%, via THE BAT X (Zack Collins, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz).
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 55 games at home (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
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Tampa Bay RaysCleveland Guardians
+110O/U: 6.5
(+100/-120)
-130
Tampa Bay's left fielder Randy Arozarena looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Jose Ramirez and the Guardians. This season Randy Arozarena is batting .268 with 20 home runs, 69 runs, 88 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 2nd in the lineup with a THE BAT X projection of .223 Avg, .302 wOBA and .16 HRs. On the Guardians side, Jose Ramirez has shined this year (.276 Avg, 28 HRs, 86 Rs, 119 RBIs, & 18 SBs). He's projected to bat 1st and THE BAT X projects his average performance today as a .305 wOBA, and .03 HRs.
Rays Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Tyler Glasnow's 96.2 mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 98th percentile among SPs.
  2. Francisco Mejia's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.3-mph average last year has lowered to 87.2-mph.
  3. Manuel Margot hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (44.3% — 100th percentile) and faces MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today.
Guardians Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Triston McKenzie (41.5% FB% according to THE BAT projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Tampa Bay's projected lineup.
  2. Andres Gimenez has been lucky this year, compiling a .368 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .056 discrepancy.
  3. Projected catcher Austin Hedges profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. Oscar Gonzalez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
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Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers
+110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)
-130
Wednesday evening the Kansas City Royals battle against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. The Royals offense will be led by Bobby Witt Jr., who ranks as the #41st-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given Bobby Witt Jr.'s profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a .329 wOBA, .254 AVG, and .09 HRs. On the other side, Javier Baez (THE BAT X's #223rd hitter in MLB) will bolster the Tigers lineup. He projects for a .293 wOBA, .235 AVG, and .05 HRs.
Royals Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Daniel Lynch has averaged 14.5 outs per start this year, grading out in the 19th percentile.
  2. Michael A. Taylor's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.4-mph EV last season has fallen off to 86.7-mph.
  3. The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to THE BAT.
Tigers Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Matt Manning has used his four-seamer 9.7% more often this season (51.2%) than he did last year (41.5%).
  2. Jonathan Schoop has been unlucky this year, notching a .242 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .287 — a .045 deviation.
  3. Harold Castro has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will be challenged by the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  2. The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  3. Kris Bubic has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI)
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Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
-210O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)
+175
Michael Harris II and the Braves go head-to-head against Joey Meneses and the Nationals today. Over the last 7 days, Michael Harris II has provided the bulk of the offense for Braves. He's batted .310 with 5 runs, 5 RBIs, 1 home runs, and 2 stolen bases. Meanwhile, it's been Joey Meneses who has been hot for the Nationals. Over the last week, he's batting .348 with 3 runs, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs.
Braves Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Jake Odorizzi (40.6% FB% via THE BAT projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Washington's projected lineup.
  2. Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  3. Matt Olson has a high pull rate on his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
Nationals Insights: Odds Explain
  1. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Josiah Gray has relied on his non-fastballs 8.7% more often this season (56.6%) than he did last year (47.9%).
  2. Cesar Hernandez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.2-mph mark last year has fallen off to 84.3-mph.
  3. Projected catcher Riley Adams grades out as a weak pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+3.25 Units / 5% ROI)
  2. The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.35 Units / 4% ROI)
  3. Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+15.60 Units / 62% ROI)
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New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
-125O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)
+105
The New York Yankees enter the game as the 9th ranked team per THE BAT X's Power Rankings and will battle the 3rd ranked Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Yankees rank 1st in MLB in home runs and will likely lean on that power in their attempt to win today. When the Blue Jays have found success this year, it's been through their hitting ability. They rank 1st in baseball in batting average.
Yankees Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Gerrit Cole's 97.1 mph fastball velocity this year is in the 95th percentile among starting pitchers.
  2. Giancarlo Stanton has been unlucky with his batting average this year; his .211 figure is quite a bit lower than his .257 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).
  3. The 19.2% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #2 squad in the league since the start of last season by this metric.
Blue Jays Insights: Odds Explain
  1. THE BAT X expects Mitch White to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.
  2. Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.
  3. Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will be challenged by the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 26 away games (+2.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  2. Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.15 Units / 22% ROI)
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Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
+105O/U: 9.0
(-115/-105)
-125
Dean Kremer (152nd ranked SP via THE BAT) is projected to take the mound for Orioles as they battle the Red Sox and Rich Hill (182nd ranked SP) at Fenway Park. The quick scouting report on Kremer: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 34.9% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a cut-fastball (30.9%). Meanwhile, Hill primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (35.2%) and his most-used secondary offering is his curveball (36.3%). THE BAT X projects Kremer for 2.9 earned runs and 3.4 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Hill is forecasted for 2.3 earned runs and 4.5 strikeouts.
Orioles Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Dean Kremer was in good form in his last start and allowed 0 ER.
  2. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rougned Odor stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  3. Rougned Odor has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
Red Sox Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Rich Hill has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 14.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  2. J.D. Martinez has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 13.80 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 23.90 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).
  3. Projected catcher Reese McGuire projects as an elite pitch framer, per THE BAT projection system.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  2. The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 away games (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  3. Christian Arroyo has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)
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Miami MarlinsNew York Mets
+165O/U: 7.0
(-105/-115)
-190
Miami's first baseman Garrett Cooper looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Pete Alonso and the Mets. This season Garrett Cooper is batting .261 with 9 home runs, 37 runs, and 50 RBIs. Today he's projected to bat 6th in the lineup with a THE BAT X projection of .230 Avg, .270 wOBA and .08 HRs. On the Mets side, Pete Alonso has shined this year (.270 Avg, 40 HRs, 91 Rs, 131 RBIs, & 5 SBs). He's projected to bat 4th and THE BAT X projects his average performance today as a .341 wOBA, and .19 HRs.
Marlins Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Jesus Luzardo's fastball velocity has increased 2.3 mph this season (96.6 mph) over where it was last season (94.3 mph).
  2. Miguel Rojas has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  3. The Miami Marlins have been the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
Mets Insights: Odds Explain
  1. THE BAT X projects Taijuan Walker to throw 107 pitches in this matchup (most on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  2. Mark Canha's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 91.8-mph average last season has dropped off to 89.3-mph.
  3. The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, per THE BAT.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.60 Units / 5% ROI)
  2. The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 46 away games (+7.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  3. Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)

 

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Philadelphia PhilliesChicago Cubs
-190O/U: 6.5
(-120/+100)
+165
The Phillies are scheduled to start Aaron Nola (10-12, 3.28 ERA) against Cubs starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski (2-1, 2.45 ERA) on Wednesday. Aaron Nola recorded the win in his last outing, as the Phillies beat the Braves 9-1. He pitched 6 innings allowing 0 earned runs with 4 hits. He also recorded 8 strikeouts with 3 walks. The last time Hayden Wesneski took the mound, he recorded a win as the Cubs defeated the Pirates 3-2. He finished with 6.1 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, while allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits. Today, Nola projects for 6.83 innings pitched with 2.0 ER, 5.3 hits, 8.2 strikeouts, and 1.5 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Wesneski's average outcome to be 5.08 IP, 2.3 ER, 4.6 H, 4.4 strikeouts, and 1.8 walks.
Phillies Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Aaron Nola has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  2. Matt Vierling has been unlucky with his wOBA this year; his .278 rate is quite a bit lower than his .331 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).
  3. Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto projects as an elite pitch framer, per THE BAT projection system.
Cubs Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Esteban Quiroz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.
  2. The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in MLB, per THE BAT.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 away games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  2. Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
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St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
+140O/U: 7.0
(-120/+100)
-160
Today's contest between the Brewers and the Cardinals pits THE BAT's 97th ranked SP (Jose Quintana) against the 12th ranked SP (Brandon Woodruff). The rundown on Quintana tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 36.4% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (27.9%). Woodruff is a four-seam guy (37.9%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Quintana deserves something like a 3.02 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 3.03. On that front, Woodruff's ERA sits at 3.18 and his FIP at 3.19.
Cardinals Insights: Odds Explain
  1. The Milwaukee Brewers have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Quintana today.
  2. Yadier Molina's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88-mph figure last season has decreased to 85.9-mph.
  3. The St. Louis Cardinals projected offense today (.311 projected wOBA per THE BAT X) projects quite a bit worse than their .323 wOBA this year.
Brewers Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Brandon Woodruff's 95.5 mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 93rd percentile among starting pitchers.
  2. Christian Yelich is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#1-best on the slate today).
  3. The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the majors, per THE BAT.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  2. Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)
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Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins
-110O/U: 7.5
(-120/+100)
-110
The White Sox are scheduled to start Johnny Cueto (7-9, 3.15 ERA) against Twins starting pitcher Josh Winder (4-5, 4.20 ERA) on Wednesday. Johnny Cueto suffered a loss in his last outing, as the White Sox lost to the Guardians 2-4. He pitched 6 innings allowing 3 earned runs with 8 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 1 walk. The last time Josh Winder took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Twins got beat by the Royals 1-4. He finished with 6 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, while allowing 3 earned runs on 6 hits. Today, Cueto projects for 6.23 innings pitched with 3.0 ER, 6.5 hits, 4.6 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Winder's average outcome to be 5.62 IP, 2.6 ER, 5.3 H, 4.2 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks.
White Sox Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Johnny Cueto has utilized his non-fastballs 6.9% more often this season (56.3%) than he did last season (49.4%).
  2. Yasmani Grandal has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  3. Chicago's 89.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in the majors: #7 overall.
Twins Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Josh Winder's 2000 rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 11th percentile among starting pitchers.
  2. Jake Cave has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87-mph average to last year's 90.7-mph mark.
  3. Luis Arraez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  2. The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  3. Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
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Arizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros
+155O/U: 6.5
(-105/-115)
-170
Today's contest between the Astros and the D-Backs pits THE BAT's 20th ranked SP (Zac Gallen) against the 16th ranked SP (Justin Verlander). The rundown on Gallen tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 48.2% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (21.5%). Verlander is a four-seam guy (50.4%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Gallen deserves something like a 2.89 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.46. On that front, Verlander's ERA sits at 1.82 and his FIP at 2.61.
D-Backs Insights: Odds Explain
  1. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zac Gallen has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5% more often this season (51.7%) than he did last season (46.7%).
  2. Extreme groundball hitters like Jake McCarthy tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.
  3. Daulton Varsho has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.6% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 10th-deepest RF fences today.
Astros Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Justin Verlander's 2424 rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 91st percentile among SPs.
  2. Trey Mancini has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  3. The Houston Astros (19 K%, via THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  2. Aledmys Diaz has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+8.50 Units / 85% ROI)
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Oakland AthleticsLos Angeles Angels
+160O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)
-180
Right-hander Adrian Martinez is expected to start today for Oakland, while right-hander Michael Lorenzen gets the nod at home for Los Angeles. Martinez enters this contest with a 6.10 ERA, backed up by a 5.75 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Lorenzen, meanwhile, has a 4.61 FIP underlying his 4.78 ERA. The last time Adrian Martinez was on the bump, the Athletics lost 5-9 versus the Mariners. He left allowing 5 earned runs and recording 7 strikeouts with 2 walks. Lorenzen's last start was against the Rangers, when the Angels lost 3-5. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 2 hits. He also recorded 7 strikeouts with 2 walks.
Athletics Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Adrian Martinez has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 5.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  2. Tony Kemp's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 86.6-mph mark last season has decreased to 84.2-mph.
  3. The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the league, per THE BAT.
Angels Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Mike Trout has been lucky with his home runs this year; his 47.80 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 40.70 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).
  2. Kurt Suzuki has a high pull rate on his flyballs (39.9% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest LF fences today.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  2. The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  3. Taylor Ward has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)
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Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres
-140O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)
+120
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the game as the 10th ranked team per THE BAT X's Power Rankings and will battle the 27th ranked Padres at Petco Park. The Dodgers rank 1st in MLB in wOBA and will likely lean on their offense as they attempt to win today. When the Padres have found success this year, it's been through their bullpen, which ranks 8th in baseball according to THE BAT.
Dodgers Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Julio Urias’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2474 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2526 rpm).
  2. Hanser Alberto's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 86.9-mph EV last season has fallen to 82.6-mph.
  3. Joey Gallo has a high pull rate on his flyballs (41.1% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest RF fences today.
Padres Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Joe Musgrove has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  2. Manny Machado has been lucky this year, posting a .380 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .344 — a .036 gap.
  3. San Diego has been the #30 group of hitters in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (7.2% rate since the start of last season).
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  2. The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 63 away games (+5.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  3. Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.45 Units / 44% ROI)
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Texas RangersSeattle Mariners
+140O/U: 6.5
(-115/-105)
-160
Martin Perez (67th ranked SP via THE BAT) is projected to take the mound for Rangers as they battle the Mariners and George Kirby (35th ranked SP) at T-Mobile Park. The quick scouting report on Perez: his main fastball is a sinker, which he uses 35.2% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a changeup (27.4%). Meanwhile, Kirby primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (46.7%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (20.8%). THE BAT X projects Perez for 2.4 earned runs and 5.5 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Kirby is forecasted for 2.1 earned runs and 6.0 strikeouts.
Rangers Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Martin Perez has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.9% less often this year (57%) than he did last year (62.9%).
  2. Kole Calhoun has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.
  3. The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in MLB, according to THE BAT.
Mariners Insights: Odds Explain
  1. George Kirby's 94.8 mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 87th percentile among SPs.
  2. J.P. Crawford has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 85.3-mph average to last year's 87.3-mph average.
  3. Carlos Santana has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  2. Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 25% ROI)
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Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
Rockies Insights: Odds Explain
  1. Jose Urena has gone to his four-seamer 9.2% less often this year (6.6%) than he did last year (15.8%).
  2. Extreme groundball bats like Yonathan Daza usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Sean Hjelle.
  3. Yonathan Daza has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
Giants Insights: Odds Explain
  1. The San Francisco Giants infield defense projects as the worst of all teams on the slate.
  2. Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.
  3. The San Francisco Giants have been the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to perform worse in the future
Betting Trends: Odds
  1. The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games at home (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  2. Brendan Rodgers has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.45 Units / 36% ROI)
 

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