DaCoochieBets NHL Picks Thread (Post All-Star Game)

dacoochiebets · Feb 20, 2023

Anaheim vs Florida Panthers
TT Over 4.5 -108
Last season, Florida averaged 4.11 goals per game, so even with some meaningful overhaul to its roster in the offseason, it still would have been hard to predict the Panthers would struggle to put up offense the way they did early this season. Yes, Paul Maurice loves to play a defensive style, but injuries also played a key role in the early struggles, but Florida is now firing on all cylinders offensively.

Over the past 10 games, Florida has averaged 4.00 goals per game, which is an elite clip and more on par with its preseason expectations. Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk have formed some strong chemistry and are driving an elite offensive line alongside surprising breakout star Eetu Luostarinen. When you pair that second line with the line of Barkov, Lundell, and Sam Reinhart, it’s a handful of talent for any team to keep in check.

This is particularly the case for Anaheim, who has numerous veteran defensemen playing key minutes, and at this point of the season are pretty clearly disinterested. This has meant the Ducks have allowed a whopping 4.16 goals against per game this season, which is on pace to be the highest mark since the 1995-96 San Jose Sharks allowed 4.35. It is difficult to decipher whether Anaheim’s horrendous defensive play or lackluster goaltending has been the greater culprit, but each area has been a significant concern.

Over the past five games, Anaheim has played to an xGF% of just 34.66, with an expected goal against per-60 of 4.30. Its poor goaltending duo has compounded the shaky defensive play in those outings, allowing 5.60 goals against. Now it’s unlikely they allow 5+ goals for the remainder of the year, but I’m thinking in this particular matchup it’s more likely to be a bloodbath for the Ducks than the odds suggest.

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Panthers TT Over 4.5

dacoochiebets · Feb 21, 2023

Puck Picks
YTD Record — 167-171-7 (+11.7 Units)

Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals

Capitals in Regulation +109

Buy-Low meets Sell-High in this one because although the Red Wings have strung together some wins over the last 10 games, they’ve really not done so by carrying the play at 5-on-5. Because although this Detroit team is 7-3 over the last 10, their underlying numbers aren’t at all indicative of a team who is starting to put the pieces together, as their expected goals share is below 45% in that time span. Moreover, they are literally dead last in that span in terms of scoring chances created at 39% and pretty clearly are enjoying a very “lucky” streak in terms of shooting percentage.

So while the Capitals haven’t exactly been playing their best hockey of late, I still think their ability to activate the defense in the attack is something that teams struggle to defend. Beyond that though, there’s an old saying in this gambling game; “beware of the trendy dog”. This feels particularly true in this one as the Wings got steamed pretty hard overnight, and the reality is I just can’t get away from the fact that my internal power rankings still have Washington pretty safely ahead of Detroit. So while it won’t be popular, I am more than willing to go against a RedWings team who is pretty clearly enjoying some results that don’t necessarily reflect their play.

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Time for a Triumphant Tuesday

Picks and Analysis for February 21st

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dacoochiebets · Feb 23, 2023

Oilers vs Penguins
YTD Record --- 171-175-7 (+13.4Units)
Oilers ML -110
Despite a tough scheduling spot here for Edmonton, I’m still pretty bullish on this team as I have for going on a month now. Yes, that meant I’ve suffered some truly disgusting beats as they melted down in the third period twice over the past 10 days, but now they travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins whom I have little to no faith in defensively. Because despite having both Letang and Petry now back healthy, the results really haven’t improved in the slightest. The Penguins have allowed 4.20 goals against per game over the past five, which is somehow not drastically worse than it has allowed over a massive 25-game sample size. And worse still the baseline GAA isn’t much worse than the underlying numbers wouldn’t indicate either. Because over the past 10 games, Pittsburgh has allowed 4.02 xGA/60, which is the second-worst rate in the league over that span.

Flaws defensively aren’t what you want coming up against the Oilers either, because over the past 10 outings, Edmonton has controlled play to an elite 59.98% expected goals rating, and 3.97 xGF/60. Those are truly elite marks, and have more or less been confirmed by the “eye test”, and outside of a few sloppy defensive miscues, the Oilers are no longer looking like a team being dragged along by McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

At the end of the day, I’m having a really hard time imagining Pittsburgh cleaning up its suspect defensive play in this spot. Pittsburgh’s third line has been a train wreck all year, and this matchup has pivoted to the point where McDavid and Draisaitl might actually be taking the ice with a better-supporting cast than the Penguins’ stars. So while backing Campbell or Skinner is not overly fun, Jarry is still looking to find his form post the most recent injury. So give me the Oilers to continue the Penguins’ March to the bottom.

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dacoochiebets · Feb 28, 2023

Puck Picks
YTD Record —— 174-177-7 (+14.4 Units)

Columbus BlueJackets vs Buffalo Sabres
BlueJackets ML +185

Now I know what your first thought is going to be; “But Coochie the Sabres are battling for the playoffs and the Jackets are trying to tank. Why on earth are you backing Columbus on the road?”

Well, folks as I’ve stated a few times in this very newsletter, it’s all about pricing in this game. And as exciting as the Sabres are going forward, they are often equally disastrous at the back with shotty goaltending and a defensive core (espescially without Dahlin) that leaves much to be desired. Moreover, my love affair with Buffalo this season has always been when they aren’t getting any love in the market, but when they are heavy favorites as they are tonight, this group really hasn’t paid out its backers the way you’d hope. On the year the Sabres are just 4-4 as a favorite of -180 or higher, which is not what you’d want laying that kinda juice.

Beyond that though February hasn’t been kind to Buffalo offensively. Its even-strength attack suffered, playing to a 21st-ranked 47.67 xGF%, and while some of that is injuries with the aforementioned Dahlin day-to-day, and the absence of Tuch, those aren’t numbers that fill me with confidence laying -190 on the ML. Do you know what else doesn’t fill me with confidence? The numbers of the guy I expect to be in the net tonight, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. It’s been a rough February for him as well, posting a .859 SV% and an overall -2.4 GSAx. The Finn is very unreliable, but the Sabres seem to think highly of him. Goalies are Voodoo, but he ain’t doing it for me.

So while the Jackets aren’t going to wow you, they are still competing hard, and at this price, with the Sabres walking wounded, I’ll happily take a shot on the underdog Jackets to come away with two points.

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