CUSA Play On Games for 2008

SoonerBS · Jul 16, 2008

This conference this season is tough for me to figure out in preseason. There are several top teams in this league who will be missing some very "key personnel" this season. That fact is throwing me off a bit in selecting how I think some games will go. So, with that in mind, there are several teams I am passing on in this conference for preseason play-on games.

CUSA West

Tulsa

Personally, I was surprised that Tulsa had the success last season that they did with a new coach and completely different offensive schemes. However, I think we have to admit that the MAJOR ingredient in that success was QB, Paul Smith. Smith racked up an impressive 60% completion rating and 5,065 yards. He was a very smart and able college football QB. Unlike a BYU, Louisville or Texas Tech where you just plug in another great QB to replace your last stud, Tulsa will definitely have a problem filling the void Smith is leaving in this program. Tulsa will have to rely a great deal this season on their offensive line strength and running game. I'm sure they will find an able QB, but I think there is going to be a very strong learning curve for whoever gets the job. Defensively last season, Tulsa allowed 33.4 ppg. It doesn't look to be any better this season with only 5 returning starters. There is one moneymaking trend that I will be watching again with Tulsa this season -- because of the "no huddle" offense they run, they cover a lot of 2nd half lines. Also, look for tulsa to be another OVER team to play on this season.

-- Tulsa vs. New Mexico September 20th -- After three tough home games in a row, New Mexico goes on the road for their first away game. Tulsa gets a bye-week right before this game and I look for them to be psyched up to play their first home game of the season. My prediction: Tulsa wins 41-24.

SoonerBS · Jul 16, 2008

Southern Methodist

SMU is one of those teams I am going to have to sit back and watch the first few games this season. I am intrigued by the hiring of June Jones to this program, but I don't think he is going to bring instant success here even if their are some talented players on the roster. He doesn't really have the QB to fit his system yet and the depth at WR doesn't fit his system either. So, although I think they do better than last year's record (1-11), I think it is going to be a definite learning year for these guys. I really think we are looking at a program that will be much improved about 3 or 4 years down the road. No games yet.

SoonerBS · Jul 16, 2008

UTEP

Here's another team that is hard to read. I like the fact that they bring back Vittatoe at QB who had a 55% pass completion rating and 3101 yards as a Freshman QB last season. If he doesn't suffer from the "sophomore jinx," he could be one of the best QBs in this conference. That said, they need some balance which means Terrell Jackson is going to have to step up at RB to fill the shoes of Marcus Thomas who is gone after averaging 5.1 ypc last year. Defensively, they bring back 7 starters, but this was a team that allowed their opponents 37.1 ppg last year. If Jackson steps up at RB, I think UTEP will have a good chance of winning over .500 of their games just by outscoring their opponents. They WILL have to outscore their opponents because I don't look for a great improvement defensively.

-- UTEP vs. UCF September 27th -- You'll see me fade UCF in several of their games this season just because they are one of those teams that is missing a very key ingredient from their success last season -- Kevin Smith. I think UCF will be decent defensively this year, but they are replacing two of their most important players from last season's roster. My prediction: UTEP wins 35-14.

SoonerBS · Jul 16, 2008

Houston

Here's one of those teams I have no play-on games to recommend. I do think the Cougars are going to win some games this season, but they have lost a key element in last season's success -- Anthony Aldridge. Aldridge averaged an unbelievable 6.2 ppg last season! Because of Aldridge's running abilities, the defenses had to respect him as a major threat. That opened up the passing game, too. Casey Keenum had a very good 68.5% completion rate, but most of this was due to Aldridge's presence. There's no way they have that kind of running back this season, so I'm expecting Houston to see some difficulties offensively in some of these games. They also have to replace the entire WR corps almost two deep from last season! Defensively, I look for them to be about the same as last season. I'll have to sit and watch how they progress before laying any money on them.

SoonerBS · Jul 16, 2008

Rice

Rice has an outstanding QB in Chase Clement. They also bring back 9 on offense and 7 on the defensive side. Defensively, they are nothing special allowing their opponents 42.9 ppg last season. But, offensively, they may just be able to outscore some opponents this season and win some games. At the least, I think they can be a good ATS covering team.

-- Rice vs. SMU August 29th -- Last year, Rice won this game by 1 point after being +6 dogs. It was a 43-42 shootout and this year's game might not be much different TOTAL wise. Rice gets to host an SMU team that will be working out some kinks in their season road opener here. I like Rice to win by a TD or more and the line has already been set at -4.5. My prediction: Rice wins 42-32.

-- Rice vs. S. Mississippi October 18th -- S. Mississippi brings Fletcher back this season, but there is very little being brought back with him. They will be breaking in new personnel at QB, offensive line and most of their defense. Rice gets a bye-week before this game, while USM has this game sandwiched between Boise St and Memphis. Bad spot here for USM. My prediction: Rice wins 49-35.

-- Rice vs. Army November 8th -- Rice catches what should be a very weak and rebuilding Army team this season right after Army plays the always emotional game against rival Air Force the week before. They beat Army at Army 48-14 two years ago. My prediction: Rice wins 49-10.

SoonerBS · Jul 16, 2008

Tulane

Tulane has been one of those teams that I have not "played on" since Katrina hit. They have been in somewhat of a disarray ever since that year. Last season, they went 4-8 and could have a better season had they won some close games. A big factor in what success they had last season came from their stud running back, Matt Forte' who averaged 5.9 ypc. Forte' is gone this season, but they think projected starter Andre' Anderson could pick up the slack. Everyone else on this offensive unit returns pretty much and the defense looks to be better as well. I'm not going to call for them to go bowling this season, but I will nake some plays on them this season.

-- Tulane vs. East Carolina Sept. 13th -- This really isn't a good spot for either team, but the season expectations are higher for East Carolina than they are for Tulane. I also think there could be a good possibility that East Carolina will be coming off an upset win against West Virginia the week before. Regardless, this is a bit of a sleeper game for East Carolina and it will be the first away game of their season. My prediction: East Carolina wins 28-27. (Tulane will be a home dog by TD or more.)

-- Tulane vs. Army October 4th -- A very poor Army team this season should be a good punching bag for other teams, including Tulane. My prediction: Tulane wins 35-10.

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

CUSA East

East Carolina

I like this East Carolina team this year. In fact, coming off three years where they went 8-3, 10-3, and 8-5 ATS, I like them every year. East Carolina just doesn't seem to get the respect they deserve. Skip Holtz has taken this team to a bowl game 2 out of the 3 years he has been the head coach. In fact, they have done nothing but improve every year he has been at the helm. I see this season as no different. ECU returns 7 on offense. 9 on defense and 48 lettermen. They lose a great all-purpose back in Chris Johnson, but whoever they plug in at RB he will be running behind the best offensive line in the CUSA. I love betting on the teams with solid offensive and defensive lines and ECU will have both.

-- ECU vs. Virginia Tech August 30th -- This game will be played on a neutral field and early lines have ECU as an +11.5 point dog in this game. I love betting on games where the underdog has a chance of winning the game straight up. That's the case in this game and we get a good line because of all the overhype of VT. My prediction: Virginia Tech wins 28-24.

-- ECU vs. West Virginia September 6th -- This will be ECU home opener where 2 years ago they played a much better West Virginia team to a 17 point game. The home crowd will be loud and wild in this one as West Virginia comes in overhyped and ECU is the real deal. Again, this is a game that ECU could win SU for the upset. My prediction: West Virginia wins 35-32.

There will likely be several more opportunities to bet ECU depending on the line. I'll be watching closely.

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

Central Florida

I like what George O'Leary has done with this team and I enjoyed making some money on UCF last season. But, let's face it, this team rode the legs of Kevin Smith big time last year. This year they not only lose Smith, but they lose QB, Israel and replace 3 players on the offensive line. This offense will be in a bit of disarray to start the season. They do bring back 9 on defense, however, and look to be improved on that side of the line. I can't find any spots to play on this team, but I do like our possibilities at winning some UNDERS with them, especially early.

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

Marshall

Marshall brings back 17 players off last year's 3-9 team. They will have to break in a new QB, but they have two talented prospects that could actually be more productive than Morris. It will help that whoever gets the job, they will have experienced players all around them. The defense gets a couple of players back that were injured for most of the season last year. There is talent here on this team and the coaches have implemented some improvements to the schemes to take advantage of their personnel including a "no huddle" offense. I think like Tulsa, this is a team that could reward us with some 2nd half covers and OVERS. Be watching for them.

-- Marshall vs. Houston October 28th -- Marshall catches Houston in a down year and this game comes after the UAB game and before a bye-week the next week. Marshall being +12 dogs in this game last season played to within a TD of a much better Houston team. This game comes midway through the season and Marshall should be clicking by then. My prediction: Marshall wins 32-24.

-- Marshall vs. UCF November 15 -- UCF doesn't play well away from their home field. Marshall has chosen this game for their homecoming. Last year, UCF had their way with Marshall. This year, Marshall could return the embarrassment to UCF. My prediction: Marshall wins 42-28.

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

Memphis

Last year, because of injuries, Memphis played a "quarterbacks by committee" type of season. They managed to finish at 7-6 and all the QBs gained some valuable experience. Hankins graduated, but Memphis has 3 very capable QBs to choose from including JUCO transfer, Arkelon Hall. Whoever plays behind center, they will be playing behind a solid offensive line. Coach West believes it is the best O-line they have ever had. That's important in my handicapping. Defensively they need to be better. Their defensive line allowed 5.1 ypc and their entire defense allowed 32.2 ppg. CUSA is not well known for their defense though, and despite last season's numbers, Memphis should improve some just based on experience alone.

-- Memphis vs. Arkansas St September 27th -- Arkansas St beat Memphis last season after Memphis blew a 31-6 halftime lead (much to my chagrin since I bet Memphis in this game.) This game this season is sandwiched between a couple of easy games and Memphis is better than ASU. My prediction: Memphis wins 35-14.

-- Memphis vs. UCF November 22nd -- Another fade against UCF. UCF smoked Memphis last year and outgained them by nearly 300 yards. That will not be repeated this season. My prediction: Memphis wins 31-21.

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

Southern Mississippi

Southern Mississippi takes a step back this season, but I expect them to make some steps forward in the years to come. Larry Fedora was hired to replace former HC, Bower. I didn't agree with USM firing Bower, but I did agree with their hiring of Fedora to replace him. Fedora is a modern coach with a flashy offensive scheme that he has proven at Oklahoma State. He will not have the personnel to run his offense this season and even Fletcher is going to have trouble running behind a new line with a new QB. This season will be a learning season on both sides of the ball for USM. No play on games here.

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

Alabama-Birmingham

Last season I thought we could probably fade UAB in every game and make money. I was wrong, but it wasn't because they turned out being better than I expected. UAB was so sorry that every team that seemed to play them last year played like they were taking the night off. They finished the season with a 6-5 ATS record and a 2-10 SU record. UAB was yound and sorry last year. So young, that they will be young and sorry again this year. Although i can't with good conscience play on this team and live with myself, I will be more careful whenever I go to fade them. Don't let 16 returning starters fool you, there will likely be very little improvement with this team this year. However, with some key personnel being gone for some teams, and the whole conference looking a bit down, UAB may end up surprising me again.

badwater · Jul 17, 2008

Good, good stuff

SoonerBS.

I like how you clearly advise the player not to be misled by the high number of returning starters at UCF and Tulane. The heavy reliance of those school's offenses on Smith and Forte respectively will translate into both taking a major dip this season.

I also will closely watch how much dropoff Tulsa shows early at the QB position with the loss of Paul Smith. They have all the other parts back offensively, but I could see a 5-point or so drop offensively.

We appreciate your well-conceived insight.

Good luck in 2008,
Paul

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

badwater said:
SoonerBS.

I like how you clearly advise the player not to be misled by the high number of returning starters at UCF and Tulane. The heavy reliance of those school's offenses on Smith and Forte respectively will translate into both taking a major dip this season.

I also will closely watch how much dropoff Tulsa shows early at the QB position with the loss of Paul Smith. They have all the other parts back offensively, but I could see a 5-point or so drop offensively.

We appreciate your well-conceived insight.

Good luck in 2008,
Paul

Thanks, dude!

Speaking of Tulsa, this came in this morning:

By ERIC BAILEY World Sports Writer
7/17/2008
Last Modified: 7/17/2008 3:26 AM

Tulsa quarterback Clark Harrell announced on Wednesday that he will transfer from the University of Tulsa.

Harrell, who saw limited action in his freshman season, said playing time was the reason. Harrell added that he intended to play at a Division I-AA or Division II school, where he would be eligible this fall.

"My plan will be to transfer to a university where I won't have to sit out a season," Harrell said in a statement. "It was a hard decision. I really love this place. I love the coaching staff. I love my teammates. It was a really tough decision. I'm just trying to make the best decision for me.

"I feel I'm good enough to play here, but there's also a chance with three (quarterbacks) competing right now and four with GJ (Kinne) coming in and eligible to play next year, someone is not going to play. I like my chances, but that's just reality. So to avoid the possibility of sitting five years, if that were to happen, and not be happy, I just felt it was best to leave now and go somewhere else."

Harrell's departure leaves senior David Johnson and junior college transfer Jacob Bower, a sophomore, as candidates for the starter's position.

Kinne has joined TU after transferring from Texas and will have to sit out this season.

"We think the world of Clark Harrell. The quarterback position is really competitive and Clark wanted to be in a position where he'd have a better opportunity to play right away," said TU coach Todd Graham. "We appreciate the hard work and dedication Clark has put forth at The University of Tulsa, and wish him the very best."

This clearly limits Tulsa's choices at QB and lessens the depth at this position.

GoSooners · Jul 17, 2008

I'm curious to see where Harrell transfers to...He's a Morman and originally signed with BYU...But if he had waited a year, he only had Bower to compete with for the position since Johnson is a senior and is on his way out..Unless the kid thinks he can't beat Bower out, I don't really understand the move..If Johnson should go down this season, Tulsa could be in big trouble..Bower has absolutely no experience at this level or in Granham's system.

groundhog11 · Jul 17, 2008

soonersbs....what do you think marshall will do overall? i find it interesting that you think they beat ucf.....this is probably the most depth that synder has had at marshall since he started.....

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

ground hog11 said:
soonersbs....what do you think marshall will do overall? i find it interesting that you think they beat ucf.....this is probably the most depth that synder has had at marshall since he started.....

Marshall is kind of intriguing program this season. They have the tools there to compete in this league this year, but the big question is how well the new QB (whoever he will be) and the new RB (whoever he will be) perform. The coach believes he has some good prospects battling for the QB job though and whoever wins the job will be playing behind a decent offensive line and will have a plethora of capable receivers to throw to including their tight end (I love offenses that that include the tight end a lot in the passing game.) So, if the new QB and RB click well enough to give this offense balance, Marshall will be one of the better teams in this conference this year.

Defensively, they are not any better or worse than any of the other defenses in this conference. The whole CUSA conference sucks defensively. But, I like what Marshall has done with their retooling of the defensive line and they have some good players on this side of the ball.

Overall, I think they have a better chance of returning to a bowl game this season than UCF does. Steele has UCF ranked way too high in this conference in my opinion. But, on the other hand, with the exception of East Carolina, I think this conference is wide open this year.

SoonerBS · Jul 17, 2008

GoSooners said:
I'm curious to see where Harrell transfers to...He's a Morman and originally signed with BYU...But if he had waited a year, he only had Bower to compete with for the position since Johnson is a senior and is on his way out..Unless the kid thinks he can't beat Bower out, I don't really understand the move..If Johnson should go down this season, Tulsa could be in big trouble..Bower has absolutely no experience at this level or in Granham's system.

GS, I have a friend that lives in Tulsa and eats and breathes college football like myself. He said that it was nothing more than the fact that Harrell wanted to play right away. He didn't want to wait and apparently he didn't want to compete hard enough to win the position this season. He wants to transfer to a Div. Iaa school where he can play right away.