Fish, RPI has MAJOR design flaws. Let's take your Illinois example. Note that Illinois is 19-0 and Kansas/Duke at 1/2 are both 14-0. If you simply dropped off of their schedule and record Illinois' 5 weakest opponents in terms of SOS I am confident you would see them with a much higher SOS and in turn a much higher ranking.
Think about that for a minute (maybe for you, around 15 seconds) and you'll note where the flaw is.
Why should a team be punished lower for winning 5 extra games (by large margins, mind you) against low-rated teams and another team be rewarded for playing less games and not playing those low-rated teams in 5 extra games? If Illinois hadn't played those 5 lowest teams, which were all whipped, how would that show them to be a better teams. It wouldn't, of course. But that's exactly what the RPI does!
The SOS is just poorly designed when it comes to comparing teams with a different number of played games. Look closely and you'll see only Wake has played more "1-50" teams and is 7-1; Illinois 7-0. Duke/Kansas both 5-0 vs. 1-50 teams. Illinois is undefeated and has 5 more wins overall and 2 more wins over top 50 clubs than both Kansas and Duke.
One would assume a widely-used index like RPI is well done, but alas it is not necessarily so. However, I will say that by the season is done some of these design flaws are less noticable and relevant -- and I suppose RPI is meant to be used at the end of the season. Nonetheless, RPI is flawed, even for what it is specifically trying to gauge.
Think about that for a minute (maybe for you, around 15 seconds) and you'll note where the flaw is.
Why should a team be punished lower for winning 5 extra games (by large margins, mind you) against low-rated teams and another team be rewarded for playing less games and not playing those low-rated teams in 5 extra games? If Illinois hadn't played those 5 lowest teams, which were all whipped, how would that show them to be a better teams. It wouldn't, of course. But that's exactly what the RPI does!
The SOS is just poorly designed when it comes to comparing teams with a different number of played games. Look closely and you'll see only Wake has played more "1-50" teams and is 7-1; Illinois 7-0. Duke/Kansas both 5-0 vs. 1-50 teams. Illinois is undefeated and has 5 more wins overall and 2 more wins over top 50 clubs than both Kansas and Duke.
One would assume a widely-used index like RPI is well done, but alas it is not necessarily so. However, I will say that by the season is done some of these design flaws are less noticable and relevant -- and I suppose RPI is meant to be used at the end of the season. Nonetheless, RPI is flawed, even for what it is specifically trying to gauge.
Illinois BY FAR is the best team in the country. No one is close. This is gutcheck time for them with games at Wisky and against Michigan State. They may lose one of these but the fact remains that they are the best team in the country bar none. Beating Iowa in OT was a big step for them...showing they can win with their backs against the wall and when they shoot so poorly from the field. Iowa was a good test with a good defense and a good coaching staff but the Illini found a way. They should be a resounding #1 in every poll in the country.
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Thanks Illy...I think they have what it takes to beat the Cheese but I think Michigan State might be a thorn. Izzo always finds a way to pull a W out of his you-know-what when he needs to in conference play. 
It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world for the Illini. I thought NC was a threat but they have had a couple of really lackluster slip ups.
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It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world for the Illini. I thought NC was a threat but they have had a couple of really lackluster slip ups.
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While I willing agree that Illinois is ranked too low at #8, can't look past last night's home game against Iowa, where this team was all out to win a conference game at home against a team that will probably end up slightly above the middle of the pack in the Big 10.
Others that look out of whack in the top ten are: #4 Boston College (too high), #6 Washington (too high), #7 Arizona (too high), #9 North Carolina (too low).
The Pac 10 is extremely weak this year in my opinion. No way the Pac 10 hangs with the ACC, Big 12, Big East, or Big 10.
Others that look out of whack in the top ten are: #4 Boston College (too high), #6 Washington (too high), #7 Arizona (too high), #9 North Carolina (too low).
The Pac 10 is extremely weak this year in my opinion. No way the Pac 10 hangs with the ACC, Big 12, Big East, or Big 10.
Illini:
No they don't have to be perfect all the time. Nearly impossible to do this day and age with all the talent spread around the country. That being said, I watched them very carefully last night as I do many of the other games on TV and I must tell you honestly that although they have talent, they lack the discipline of some of the other top teams I have seen too date. Discipline on each possession and the ability to break down the different and varying defenses they are likely to see both on the road and during tournament time will be a must if they are to succeed in becoming the National Champion. Let's see how they do in conference on the road and in the Big 10 tournament.
No they don't have to be perfect all the time. Nearly impossible to do this day and age with all the talent spread around the country. That being said, I watched them very carefully last night as I do many of the other games on TV and I must tell you honestly that although they have talent, they lack the discipline of some of the other top teams I have seen too date. Discipline on each possession and the ability to break down the different and varying defenses they are likely to see both on the road and during tournament time will be a must if they are to succeed in becoming the National Champion. Let's see how they do in conference on the road and in the Big 10 tournament.
OMT- Fair assessment. Time will tell, and it's a good thing that basketball is not like football, and we will have to get beaten by someone in order to be denied a national title. It was a brutal game to watch, and they were totally out of sync offensively. But they still played good defense, and found a way to win.
For the Illini to win the National Championship, they are going to have to hit their threes. That's the bottom line. They play very good defense, are extremely unselfish, and are unbeatable when they shoot well. The one weakness they have is that they don't have a dominant big man. My conscience whispers "how can any team win a championship if someone like Nick Smith has to play as many minutes as he does?" He's terrible. They really don't have a post presence at all. That being said, they have 4 guys that can light it up on any given night, and are solid shooters most of the time from 3 point range. Look at what the Illini did to Cincy, Gonzaga, and Wake Forest. Those games were over before tipoff, and nobody would have had a chance to beat them on those three nights. If they shoot 32% in the tournament, they will definitely go down. But I love our chances, and have not lost the faith.
Illini will get beat in the tournament like they do every year. All I've heard here in Illinois the past 4 years is about how they are going to final four and winning it all. Haven't done it once so it's great to be here in Illinois and listen to this crap. Matches all the Cub fans around here. Heck I think they were given the World Series trophy before the season even started last year. Bottom line is that Illini probably won't even get to final 8.
