Cumulative of 9 political forecast models has Obama winning 52% of the popular vote

[HinesWard86]

Mods, please do not move this. This is not a partisan thread one way or the other. It is a cumulative of scientific forecasting models.

The chances of Obama winning the election are right at 80% per these models.

One forecast model has McCain with an 83% chance to win, six have Obama with a 70%+ chance to win, and two have the election as a 50-50 toss-up.

 

[HinesWard86]

Could I ask why this was moved? These are purely scientific measures. There is no bias and no partisanship.

 

[steaktartar]

maybe because it leans towards politics?

 

[HinesWard86]

maybe because it leans towards politics?

I understand that steak, but numerous other threads about politics are currently in the offshore. I just would like a mod to tell me why mine gets shipped here and others are allowed to stay.

 

[steaktartar]

they know you're a righty..........lol

 

[HinesWard86]

Haha possibly.

I do lean right but I try to keep my partisanship out of my posts. Hell, how many righties do you see posting that Obama is gonna win?

Btw, if you or anyone wants to read these models would be more than happy to share them. Very interesting stuff.

 

[oldmanTED]

Hines:

It was moved because it is not gambling related. The threads on the election that remain in the Offshore Forum tend to be discussions about betting on the election save for Max's poll. Nothing personal was intended.

 

[HinesWard86]

OMT, no offense was taken. I was just curious as to why.

I just prefer to keep non-partisan posts out of here because usually they become partisan one way or the other in here.

Thanks for the explanation

 

[HinesWard86]

Bump for people that think Obama should be a -800 favorite

 

[D2bets]

I think if the election was today Obama should be -2500. But alas, it is not, and you can't predict the unpredictable over the next 8 days. Thus, the line is somewhere lower. -800 seems about right for today.

 

[HinesWard86]

D2, but what do you think of these election models made by political scientists?

Do you trust them or the gambling market more?

 

[HinesWard86]

Hines you still think McCain is going to win?

D,

I have never said I think McCain is going to win, I just think he has a better chance than the gambling market indicates. Across the street I said I think he has a 20-25% chance to win but think Obama will ultimately prevail by 2-3% of the popular vote.

Gambling markets are not nearly as good as some may think as has been seen in the past few years. The EU referendum vote in France, the Republican VP nomination, the Dem and Rep presidential nominations have shown how poor the gambling market is at predicting political events. All of those lines swung wildly back and forth before they were decided.

 

[HinesWard86]

Okay

so do you think McCain will pull off the ML upset

If I could get McCain at over +700 than I would definitely take a shot on it. However, like I said above I predict a 2-3% Obama popular vote victory.

If you would like my reasons feel free to PM me or hit me up on AIM.

 

[HinesWard86]

I am voting for neither. Top of the ticket protest vote.

My main concern is international policy and both McCain's and Obama's are foolish. Obama has repeated the assertion that we should invade a country with nuclear weapons if they are unwilling or unable to find Bin Laden. Meanwhile, McCain is ensconced in this Cold War view of the world (as are many) and I do not like his saber rattling apropos Russia.