Crypto holders

[snoop]

Volker fought off 15% inflation with 20% rate. Powell is fighting 9% inflation with 2.5% rate and a supernova liquidity bomb in preceding year to deal with.

Volker inflation fight last about 5 years, we're only six months in the 2nd season. Even the war ends tomorrow, Russia oil embargo is here to stay, inflation is still a big head wind. Who knows how long this will play out. Assuming the central bankers can bring down the inflation to 3% - 4% in 2025, you think they would just turn around and back to QE when the next crisis come? It just took them 3 - 4 years to fix it.

COVID-19 windfall is one time event, Fed put is now dead. More pain ahead.

 

[metro]

Volker fought off 15% inflation with 20% rate. Powell is fighting 9% inflation with 2.5% rate and a supernova liquidity bomb in preceding year to deal with.

Volker inflation fight last about 5 years, we're only six months in the 2nd season. Even the war ends tomorrow, Russia oil embargo is here to stay, inflation is still a big head wind. Who knows how long this will play out. Assuming the central bankers can bring down the inflation to 3% - 4% in 2025, you think they would just turn around and back to QE when the next crisis come? It just took them 3 - 4 years to fix it.

COVID-19 windfall is one time event, Fed put is now dead. More pain ahead.

thanks for the details Snoop .. what is the supernova liquidity bomb ?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Volker fought off 15% inflation with 20% rate. Powell is fighting 9% inflation with 2.5% rate and a supernova liquidity bomb in preceding year to deal with.

Volker inflation fight last about 5 years, we're only six months in the 2nd season. Even the war ends tomorrow, Russia oil embargo is here to stay, inflation is still a big head wind. Who knows how long this will play out. Assuming the central bankers can bring down the inflation to 3% - 4% in 2025, you think they would just turn around and back to QE when the next crisis come? It just took them 3 - 4 years to fix it.

COVID-19 windfall is one time event, Fed put is now dead. More pain ahead.

Why wouldn't they turn QE clock back on? It'll go back on sooner than later.

QE technically (based on fed data) never caused inflation, so I doubt they think it is much of a problem. The inflation came from direct cash to consumer fiscal policy

The QE inflation was asset inflation which the fed never minded much (and neither did most people besides those at the bottom who didn't really understand what was happening anyway) Obviously a grocery or oil bill little bit different.

 

[metro]

Volker fought off 15% inflation with 20% rate. Powell is fighting 9% inflation with 2.5% rate and a supernova liquidity bomb in preceding year to deal with.

Volker inflation fight last about 5 years, we're only six months in the 2nd season. Even the war ends tomorrow, Russia oil embargo is here to stay, inflation is still a big head wind. Who knows how long this will play out. Assuming the central bankers can bring down the inflation to 3% - 4% in 2025, you think they would just turn around and back to QE when the next crisis come? It just took them 3 - 4 years to fix it.

COVID-19 windfall is one time event, Fed put is now dead. More pain ahead.

Why wouldn't they turn QE clock back on? It'll go back on sooner than later.

QE technically (based on fed data) never caused inflation, so I doubt they think it is much of a problem. The inflation came from direct cash to consumer fiscal policy

The QE inflation was asset inflation which the fed never minded much (and neither did most people besides those at the bottom who didn't really understand what was happening anyway) Obviously a grocery or oil bill little bit different.

damn 2025 is a long ways away .. what happens to asset values between now and then Pat

 

[PatsFan1283]

Beats me metro, stock up on ammo

they coming for you

 

[snoop]

thanks for the details Snoop .. what is the supernova liquidity bomb ?

They ran up the Fed balance sheet from $4.5T to $9T in 18 months. No economy can absorb that huge amount of liquidity. Extra $ made its way to stocks, cryptos, real estates. Check out the home price 5-yr chart , it locks step with the NASDDAQ, except it's still holding up very well. The NASDAQ is off ATH by 30%.

 

[snoop]

Why wouldn't they turn QE clock back on? It'll go back on sooner than later.

QE technically (based on fed data) never caused inflation, so I doubt they think it is much of a problem. The inflation came from direct cash to consumer fiscal policy

The QE inflation was asset inflation which the fed never minded much (and neither did most people besides those at the bottom who didn't really understand what was happening anyway) Obviously a grocery or oil bill little bit different.

QE has sent home price soaring, housing affordability is a big concern for the Fed. The worst will come next year for a lot of tenants when they re-sign new contract only to find out their rents go up by 15% - 20%.

I think we're at the beginning of de-globalization process. The West is addicting to cheap energy/materials. When everyone is decoupling from each other, it's very hard to fix the inflation problem. Biden is in Asia right now and he skips China - US biggest trading partner.

West/East relationship at the lowest point is understatement. They're setting up for a potentially bigger confrontation. Who can endure the pain will win in the long run.

 

[sportsm60]

Beats me metro, stock up on ammo

they coming for you

If the economy totally crashes guns and ammo will be more valuable than gold.

 

[Michelangelo]

about charts / technical analysis

I am inclined to go by. the charts , and envious of anyone that can but I have seen so many technical analysis
guys be so on thence and wrong so often

there are some great ones if you can find them

having said that I very best I know I know swear by the ichimoku indicator
its easy to learn also .. the best guys use the ichi with their own indicator or other indicators

having said that , the ichimoku cloud indicator is a gold mine

Gonna check out Ichimoku, metro. New to me. Thanks.

 

[metro]

the very best tea hnical analysis person I know of , that teaches it .. has his own proprietary indicators that
he integrates into rightprotrader etc .. uses the ichi cloud to cross check everything else his indicators tell him

according to him and others before if you use nothing else than the ichi you can be very profitable

its easy to learn , I learned it to a decent degree correctly but then went inactive and forgot the details to
most of it..

I used to have a follow list that I would track tokens near entering the cloud and buy them once they enter
the bottom of there cloud , this is a very great opp when you catch them as they enter the bottom of the cloud so you
there sell when it reaches the top of the cloud ( when it goes correctly)

there are trader bots that have automated that , scouting tokens and sending alerts as soon aa a token enters the
bottom of the cloud ..

the time frames and other factors have been adjusted for crypto as they are different than stocks but
its out there the ichi cloud folks are a very generous helpful bunch telegram , twitter etc anyone posting a chart based on the ichi would answer any question you have

 

[metro]

if you pull

 

[raiders72]

the very best tea hnical analysis person I know of , that teaches it .. has his own proprietary indicators that
he integrates into rightprotrader etc .. uses the ichi cloud to cross check everything else his indicators tell him

according to him and others before if you use nothing else than the ichi you can be very profitable

its easy to learn , I learned it to a decent degree correctly but then went inactive and forgot the details to
most of it..

I used to have a follow list that I would track tokens near entering the cloud and buy them once they enter
the bottom of there cloud , this is a very great opp when you catch them as they enter the bottom of the cloud so you
there sell when it reaches the top of the cloud ( when it goes correctly)

there are trader bots that have automated that , scouting tokens and sending alerts as soon aa a token enters the
bottom of the cloud ..

the time frames and other factors have been adjusted for crypto as they are different than stocks but
its out there the ichi cloud folks are a very generous helpful bunch telegram , twitter etc anyone posting a chart based on the ichi would answer any question you have

I know that it works in some markets, but I'm not a believer in using traditional technical analysis with bitcoin. On-chain analysis is needed. There's a lot of good information on glassnode. It's good to see whale wallets, money moved in and out of exchanges, mining information, etc.

Right now bitcoin is locked on to the stock market, that's all you need. When they decouple, the market is still small and what you need to look at is current news, laws and the information posted above.

Everyone has their own way that works, so I'm not saying don't use traditional analysis. I'm just not a believer.

 

[raiders72]

the very best tea hnical analysis person I know of , that teaches it .. has his own proprietary indicators that
he integrates into rightprotrader etc .. uses the ichi cloud to cross check everything else his indicators tell him

according to him and others before if you use nothing else than the ichi you can be very profitable

its easy to learn , I learned it to a decent degree correctly but then went inactive and forgot the details to
most of it..

I used to have a follow list that I would track tokens near entering the cloud and buy them once they enter
the bottom of there cloud , this is a very great opp when you catch them as they enter the bottom of the cloud so you
there sell when it reaches the top of the cloud ( when it goes correctly)

there are trader bots that have automated that , scouting tokens and sending alerts as soon aa a token enters the
bottom of the cloud ..

the time frames and other factors have been adjusted for crypto as they are different than stocks but
its out there the ichi cloud folks are a very generous helpful bunch telegram , twitter etc anyone posting a chart based on the ichi would answer any question you have

Although what you are doing short term is great and trading bots do work. I'll definitely look into it. Always willing to learn.

 

[raiders72]

Agree that institutions are now playing a big role. Many such as MicroStrategy DCA.

 

[snoop]

Bitcoin?

The DOW has been sliding for 2 months, it's 2000 pts away from pre-pandemic level. The Fed balance sheet has gone up by 100%, the DOW is up by 8%. Home prices in a lot of markets has gone up 60% - 70%. There are still a lot of FOMO in housing market even rate is at this high, no sign of slowing down....yet.

 

[metro]

The DOW has been sliding for 2 months, it's 2000 pts away from pre-pandemic level. The Fed balance sheet has gone up by 100%, the DOW is up by 8%. Home prices in a lot of markets has gone up 60% - 70%. There are still a lot of FOMO in housing market even rate is at this high, no sign of slowing down....yet.

great info thank you Snoop

particularly interested in the housing market .. experts I've read seem split on where its going

 

[PatsFan1283]

The DOW has been sliding for 2 months, it's 2000 pts away from pre-pandemic level. The Fed balance sheet has gone up by 100%, the DOW is up by 8%. Home prices in a lot of markets has gone up 60% - 70%. There are still a lot of FOMO in housing market even rate is at this high, no sign of slowing down....yet.

Housing issue is cost to build is out of control, seems like gonna lead to bad political/societal outcomes if people can’t buy homes at even somewhat reasonable rates

3.5% fed funds rate collapses the economy, it’s not going to happen

inflation will either slide more organically or it won’t

 

[raiders72]

I look at things such as difficulty dropping over 3%, break even now $26k, talk of the PoW to PoS switch which could centralize and

On-chain volume hits multi-month lows​

Bitcoin has been famously boring for the mainstream consumer base throughout 2022, thanks to price action, but now, even participation from existing investors is waning.

On-chain data shows that volumes have been in steady decline, with the notable exception of the post-LUNA panic.

Glassnode, which tracks seven-day moving average on-chain transaction volumes, recorded nine-month lows on May 23.

From May 9 onwards, the moving average began falling precipitously, and by May 22 had fallen 70%.

While CryptoQuant’s Ki underscored the lack of interest among retail buyers, fellow analyst Willy Woo argued that it was the big players that really held sway over market fluctuations.

“Very little of the volume and therefore impact on price comes from retail needing to buy groceries,” he wrote as part of a response during a Twitter debate last week:

“5% of the supply is owned by people who hold less than $30k of BTC, the bulk of volume is larger investors who sell to hedge market risk.”

 

[raiders72]

It doesn't matter too much now but when they decouple it will.

 

[feoneliya]

Good day!That would probably cause a massive amount of wealth destruction and cascade us into recession.