Croakers other NCAAF bets

[croaker]

I've had pretty good luck with my models in College Football to date, so I am going to start a thread to track the games I bet on.

It will keep me disciplined and hopefully enable me to use sensible BRM.

I will try to stick to ATS and ML unless I can spot a good alt-line or parlay.

I'm already tracking my SunBelt Conference bets so this will be all the other ones and I am starting from scratch.

These are the numbers my models spit out, I use 2 models. 1 is a simple efficiency stat based model, and the other one is supposed to adjust the line specific for the matchup.

Friday Games

Format is home opening line my line 1 my line 2

UNLV @ Fresno -13.5 -12.5 -10

OSU @ NW +27.5 +31.7 +30.5

Pitt @ Syracuse +3.5 +9.0 +10.0

Marshall @ FAU -5.5 -17.0 -16.7

No bets as yet, I will double check the numbers and check the recent form before committing any BR.

Some of the numbers seem way off [apart from UNLV] so I definitely want to double check them in the morning.

 

[Mofome2]

Thx you. I am curious what the model says for FAU and Ohio State. Ohio State at was 28 at my book and now sits at 27.5. They asking for Ohio State money. I could see this being close to the number maybe 42 - 10. Not sure if NW can score more than 10 but their defense I think can hold Ohio St between 35 and 42. Thx again and looking forward to the.model croaker. BOL

 

[croaker]

Thx you. I am curious what the model says for FAU and Ohio State. Ohio State at was 28 at my book and now sits at 27.5. They asking for Ohio State money. I could see this being close to the number maybe 42 - 10. Not sure if NW can score more than 10 but their defense I think can hold Ohio St between 35 and 42. Thx again and looking forward to the.model croaker. BOL

Thanks for the question, I'm off to bed now [local time is 1:23am] but I'll try to post something sensible after I double check the numbers tomorrow.

 

[croaker]

Thx you. I am curious what the model says for FAU and Ohio State. Ohio State at was 28 at my book and now sits at 27.5. They asking for Ohio State money. I could see this being close to the number maybe 42 - 10. Not sure if NW can score more than 10 but their defense I think can hold Ohio St between 35 and 42. Thx again and looking forward to the.model croaker. BOL

Here goes....

OSU has a freakishly efficient offense their YPP is 10.8 so far this year.

NW is is around average at 20.3 YPP

OSU has a better than average offense and NW has a better than average defense so you would expect OSU to have higher YPP against NW than say Miami of Ohio.

Whereas NW has a worse than average defense and OSU has a better than average offense so you would expect NW do end up with higher YPP against OSU.

I estimate/calculate that OSU should gain and score around 18% less than expected while NW should score and gain around 35% less expected than expected. So I estimate the TT to be 40 for OSU and 10 for NW for a spread of 30, about 3pts [now 2.5] higher than the line.

Which pretty much exactly agrees with the high side of your assessment so I am going to bet it.....

After watching Wazu lose a 32 point lead I don't think the Buckeyes will take their foot off the gas until they are up 50..

OSU -27.5 @-110 1.5u

When I started writing this post the line was -27 and by the time I place my bet it had moved out to -27.5.

 

[croaker]

While I was doing the above post I missed the start of the Pitt game so have just taken live Pitt -3.5 @-110 for 1u.

 

[croaker]

And just taken live FAU -6.5 @-110 for 1u, as well.

 

[croaker]

Things are warming up at Frog Central..

 

[Hedge]

Bol

 

[croaker]

FAU let me down.

Pitt were looking good but let Syracuse back into the game, but thanks to a favorable replay review and a couple of fumble free runs they managed to hold on for the cover.

OSU had the cover by the half. NW played hard in Q1 but after a couple of injuries they just couldn't match the huge gap in talent.

Record now +1.28u

 

[croaker]

Penn v Michigan


Penn State -7.5 at -110 1u.

I don't really like the line being set just above the key number which is why only 1 unit.

 

[Mofome2]

BOL tonight. Great call on OSU

 

[croaker]

Penn let me down with Michigan covering late so record is now +0.28u.

Regardless of the ATS outcome, I expected Penn to actually do better and Michigan were better than I expected.

So as they say when you're in a slump keep betting so I'm having a crack at the Trojans v the Buffaloes.

I cap the game at USC -12.7

I watched one of the Buff's games earlier in the year which also encourages me to bet USC. Hopefully USC can get a decent buffer going into Q4.

I think the line is pretty tight, I would take the Buff's or no bet if the line for them was +14.5

Bet USC -10.5 @-110 for 1u.

FYI I'll look to add USC ML around 0.5u if the Trojans fall behind early but not for record.


PS I've run some numbers for middling, if I can get a spot early, say if USC score first, and get the Buffs say +17.5 at -115 I will try for a middle. The payoffs would be +1.78, -.09, -.13 so B/E would be around 6% success and EV neutral with USC ATS with 15% success.

 

[croaker]

Brutal game.

I didn't manage to watch the game so in addition to losing my bet, I got no entertainment value and no opportunity to take any live bets. I did see the end but all the betting options were gone...

I'm guessing the game went like this. USC probably looked uncoached for the first 3Q, then the Buffaloes self destructed in Q4....

Record now -.78u