Core42's MMA picks

[core42]

I've been capping MMA for a year or so but haven't tracked picks anywhere so this is as much for me as it is to share...GL all

UFC 90

Anderson Silva 6.3 units to win 1u
Don't normally play bridge jumpers but can't help but play this one...Cote has no ground game and he won't out strike Anderson

Thiago Alves 2.2u to win 3u
Thiago opened as the favorite but I feel public perception of Kos being a good, improving TUF fighter has pushed this into a wrong guy favored situation. Kos will take Alves down but Thiago's strength will allow him to neutralize the ground game and get stand ups where Thiago has a big advantage. Kos' stand up is improved & that may be a problem since he may feel more inclined to stand & bang. Also, Kos took this fight on short notice & needed to scrap his whole gameplan for Yoshida to prep for Alves but Thiago only needed to make minor tweaks switching from Sanchez to Kos

Gray Maynard 2.2u to win 1u
Rich Clementi has seen a resurgence lately in the UFC going 5-2 in his last 7 fights but if you look deeper that's partly due to the type of opponent he's faced. He has wins over Sam Stout, Melvin Guillard, Ross Pointon & Anthony Johnson all of which are bangers with zero ground game so "No Love" was able to use his BJJ to submit or grind out decisions. Against guys that have a clue on the ground he's lost to Din Thomas and Roan Carneiro and got the deciosion against Terry Etim. Against Maynard he has a guy that will be able to take him down and use his wrestling to ground & pound and neutralize his BJJ as he's done to Frankie Edgar and Dennis Siver. Gray should control this from the start and grind out a dominant but boring decision

Hermes Franca 2.7u to win 1.5u
Bad blood aside, Marcus Aurelio hasn't beaten anyone of note in years and seems to be living off of his upset of Gomi in 2006 which Gomi avengened later that year. These two should neutralize each other on the ground and Franca's stand up is much better and should end this one with one of those ugly, loopy punches that seem to land often. Bottom line is that Aurelio doesn't have the talent to hang with Franca

I'll be there in Chi town watching these go down and having a couple :drink:

 

[core42]

Ok I'm adding one additional play based on the line:

Junior dos Santos .16u to win 1u
Junior dos Santos is a Black House guy training with some beasts like Anderson Silva, Noguira Bros, Machida, etc and he has the same type of skills but is still a little raw. He has a legit BJJ black belt to neutralize Werdum and the size/strength to deal with him as well. In the past Werdum has taken fights off (see Arlovski fight) and at +600 at BookMaker I couldn't pass up a small play on this one

 

[turbozed]

Thanks for the writeups. Everything you say makes a whole lot of sense. I might not tail but I'll definitely think twice about going against. Good point about Clementi's wins.

I'm still not sold on the 'switching opponents' factor however. I think being prepared for a fight (any fight) is the single biggest factor. Switching opponents to fight in a *different* weightclass will be a big factor. However, within the same weightclass, if a guy is ready for a fight already, I don't think a change makes too much of a difference. I really dont think Koscheck is going to completely blank out and not know how to fight Alves because he "only* had like 3 weeks to watch tapes and come up with a gameplan though. Maybe it's time to dig up figures of other semi-short notice opponent changes in the past.

 

[core42]

I'm still not sold on the 'switching opponents' factor however. I think being prepared for a fight (any fight) is the single biggest factor. Switching opponents to fight in a *different* weightclass will be a big factor. I really dont think Koscheck is going to completely blank out and not know how to fight Alves because he "only* had like 3 weeks to watch tapes and come up with a gameplan though. Maybe it's time to dig up figures of other semi-short notice opponent changes in the past.

As I read other write ups & discussions I may have played up that angle a bit much in the write up as Koscheck really has mainly one game plan against everyone so his changes were also probably not too bad but still changes are needed going from a judo opponent to a muay thai opponent.
That being said I'm still pretty big on Alves :lolBIG:

 

[sleung]

against you on all of them except Alves

 

[core42]

against you on all of them except Alves

GL, some matchups that could really go either way

 

[DennizdaMenace]

Ok I'm adding one additional play based on the line:

Junior dos Santos .16u to win 1u
Junior dos Santos is a Black House guy training with some beasts like Anderson Silva, Noguira Bros, Machida, etc and he has the same type of skills but is still a little raw. He has a legit BJJ black belt to neutralize Werdum and the size/strength to deal with him as well. In the past Werdum has taken fights off (see Arlovski fight) and at +600 at BookMaker I couldn't pass up a small play on this one

OUTFUCKINGSTANDING!:toast:

 

[core42]

thanks, tailed on the last 3 and came away winners. Appreciate it

Glad I could help....good night for me. This will help make up for all of the money I spent at the fight drinking...$7.50/beer gets expensive real quick :lol:

 

[turbozed]

5 of 5 is always nice

 

[core42]

Wec 36

Chael Sonnen 1.8u to win 2u

Wasn't going to put any wagers down as I didn't see a lot of line value on this card. I was leaning towards Sonnen but wanted to see Filho after his rehab to see how that affected him but the weigh in picture & the fact he couldn't make weight shows he's not focused. Amazingly you can still get Sonnen with plus money which is what I did.


Thanks for the heads up Braniac

 

[core42]

Wec 36

adding...

Yoshiro Maeda 1.05u to win 1u

Always good to line shop....BookMaker had Maeda -125 but bodog has -105 which I feel is good value for a guy I think wins this around 60% of the time.

 

[turbozed]

Still some rogue +150's out there for Sonnen.

 

[core42]

Updated Record

Posted picks:6-1 +8.45units

 

[core42]

Ufc 91

Back with UFC 91 picks. A couple plays were made about 2 days ago so lines may not be the same as what's available but I believe they should be close.

Demian Maia 3.3u to win 1.5u
Let me start by saying I'm a big Nate Quarry fan but I just think Maia is too much for him. Classic striker vs grappler and Maia's striking is better than Quarry's grappling. Maia's takedowns are good and getting better and once it hits the ground you just can't train for Maia's level of bjj. Maia is consistently improving his overall MMA game and this will be another step up the ladder for him.

Dustin Hazelett 8.1u to win 4.5u
Both guys are fairly well rounded with McCrory being a slightly better striker but Hazelett is a much better grappler. Usually McCrory has a big reach advantage and can use his jab to keep space but Hazelett has basically the same reach and will stand for a bit before closing & taking hime down. Look for Hazelett by arm bar on one of McCrory's long, lanky arms.

Couture/Lesner Over 2:30 of round 3 1.8u to win 1.5u
Interesting propr bet that I feel has value at -125. One thing we know about Couture is that he is a survivor and with Lesnar's minimal MMA knowledge vs. Couture's MMA encyclopedia of a brain & great gameplanning I'm sure Couture will find a way to get this fight to go at least this long. Even at Couture's age he has a quickness advantage and he'll jump on Lesnar's mistakes quickly whereas Lesnar isn't experienced enough to do the same. My lean is to Couture by decision but I'll just play this prop instead.

GL to all :toast:


Edit - Hazelett still available at -185 at BookMaker but is -200 at bodog now

 

[core42]

Updated record:

8-2 +12.65 units

 

[core42]

UFN 16 - Fight For The Troops

Well I've been crazy busy with work so I fell behind looking at the matchups & lines so this is really a tracking post only...tail at your own risk.
I also got on to bet late as I would've loved to pound Sanchez -170 but it was off the board hno:

Only one play, I lean towards Miller but not enough to play given the short notice of him taking this fight.
YOSHIYUKI YOSHIDA - 1u to win 2.2

GL all :drink:

 

[terpkeg]

BOL.

Good thing Sanchez was off the board. I wish it was off the board last night when i played it.

McCully defeated Sanchez by dec.

Must have been an ugly scene.

 

[Rambo]

yea fuck sanchez. i need to learn anytime a guy comes to weigh in looking like a blowfish to stay away from him.

 

[core42]

Yep, what a tool Sanchez is....glad I missed betting him but wished I had bet my lean on Miller. Well, KOS looked good, give him credit. That loss brings my board record to:

Updated record:

8-3 +11.65 units

I have a couple for tonight, again I've been busy and these TUF finales can be difficult to pick sometimes. You have to figure out if what you saw on the show (which was taped many months ago) is the really how that fighter fights & if they've made an effort to improve since. Also, for the 2 fights for a contract you never know if you'll see them trying to win vs trying not to lose a la Chris Lytle/Matt Serra.

Here's what I've got:

Vinnie Magalhaes 2u to win 2.5u
Got this one a couple days ago at BookMaker & glad I did it was +125 then and Vinnie is now -200. MMA is one of the sports that catching early lines can mean a HUGE swing.

Tom Lawlor 1u to win 1u
I feel like Kingsbury really didn't belong on the show & I think Tom can knock him out.

Shane Nelson 1.6u to win 1.5u
Wrong guy favored here. Roop showed he's a tough guy & pretty good on his feet while Shane showed he loves to get drunk but Shane is bigger, stronger and will get him on the ground and control him.

Let's cash these boys & girls :toast:

 

[Maverick_Otto]

My BET.
• TUF 8 Finale •
[parlay wager]
R. Bader
A. Johnson
J. MacDonald

[Straight bet]
Bader vs Magalhaes $ Ryan Bader +
Kaplan vs Browning $ Dave Kaplan +
Kingsbury vs Lawlor $ Tom Lawlor +
Delgado vs Polakowski $ Roli Delgado -