[h=1]Where contrarian betting value lies in NFL Week 6[/h]David Solar, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
When we discuss contrarian betting in the NFL, we include many strategies that can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one of our cornerstone philosophies, but we also recommend picking teams on losing streaks, fading winning streaks, and taking the league's least popular teams.
Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" may be surprised to learn sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss, and there is never a more favorable time to bet against a team than after a victory.
Granted, the term "loss" can seem ambiguous. Our strategies typically focus on underdogs, who are often able to lose the game while still covering the spread. Just last week our picks posted a 2-2 ATS record although those teams went 1-3 straight up.
What happens when bettors are repeatedly burned by the same teams? What happens when these teams fail to cover the spread, and bankrolls suffer? When bettors start to lose money faster than Nicolas Cage at a paleontology auction, panic sets in. That's when opportunistic contrarians can capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we tested whether bettors overreacted to teams that had performed poorly against the spread (ATS). Our hypothesis was that bettors would be unwilling to take teams that had consistently failed to cover the spread, and the value would be amplified when their opponent had been profitable.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We found that teams with an ATS winning percentage of 30 percent or less went 514-458 ATS. This figure was somewhat misleading since it included a number of 0-1 teams. Since we wanted to highlight teams that had repeatedly failed to cover, we examined games from Week 6 or later. This addition cut our sample size in half, but increased our winning percentage from 52.9 percent to 55.7 percent.
For our next step, we looked at opposing teams with an ATS winning percentage of at least 51 percent, which once again cut our sample size in half but improved our system's win rate from 55.7 percent to 62.6 percent.
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<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 6 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</aside>Why does this work?
We have observed that square bettors often overreact and refuse to pick teams that haven't covered the spread in recent weeks. Oddsmakers anticipate this public perception and typically shade their opening lines, forcing bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. These shaded lines create artificial line value for contrarians willing to go against the grain.
[h=2]Week 6 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Minnesota Vikings
When it rains, it pours. This clichéd proverb rings especially true for Kansas City fans who on Sunday had one of the toughest weeks in recent memory. Despite opening as 10-point favorites, the Chiefs lost by one point to the Bears -- K.C.'s fourth straight defeat -- and reportedly lost Jamaal Charles for the season after the star running back suffered a torn ACL.
This may be bad news for Chiefs fans, but it's great news for contrarian bettors who have the opportunity to buy low. Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point road dog and has received just 31 percent of spread bets. With a majority of public bettors taking Minnesota, Kansas City has dropped from +3.5 to +4.
We'll gladly take this free half-point and buy low on the Chiefs this week.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers
It's rare that we'll be able to take a favorite, but this is a unique situation. In a surprising twist, the Seahawks (2-3) enter Week 6 with a losing record while the Panthers are just one of six remaining undefeated teams.
Despite both teams seemingly heading in opposite directions, Carolina opened as a 5.5-point underdog and has received 41 percent of spread bets.
One of the driving factors in this line is clearly Seattle's crowd, the 12th man. Since 2005, the Seahawks have gone 64-40 ATS at home, but just 44-57 ATS on the road. This represents the best home-field advantage in football by a wide margin.
I also had the opportunity to speak with Michael Grodsky from the William Hill sportsbook, who informed me that 68 percent of their tickets have taken Carolina, but they had actually taken more money on Seattle. Essentially, squares are taking the Panthers and sharps are taking the Seahawks, making this the quintessential "Pros vs. Joes" game.
Seattle is still available at -6.5 at many offshore sportsbooks, so we would strongly suggest shopping for the best line before placing any bets.
San Diego Chargers (+10) at Green Bay Packers
This season San Diego has covered the spread just once, while Green Bay remains one of three teams to go undefeated against the spread. Once again, this represents an excellent opportunity to buy low and sell high.
The Packers opened as a 9.5-point favorite and have received 80 percent of early spread bets, moving the line to -10. This half-point line move is particularly meaningful since 10 points represent the third-most common margin of victory over the past decade.
Getting a free half-point based on public perception is significant, but we also have a number of historically profitable betting systems triggered on the Chargers.
Road teams on short rest have been undervalued by bettors, which bodes well for San Diego after Monday night's heartbreaker. We also found that double-digit underdogs have performed at a high level, especially after a loss. Finally, we found that Chargers QB Philip Rivers has posted a 32-21 ATS career record as an underdog, which further validates our system.
Green Bay has been arguably the league's best team in early action, but 10 points is simply too many against a talented Chargers offense.
Indianapolis Colts (+8) vs. New England Patriots
Before the start of the season, CG Technology posted lines for every regular-season game and listed the Colts as one-point home favorites. Several months later, the Patriots opened -6.5 at the Westgate and have received 88 percent of spread bets. This overwhelming public support has pushed the line to -8. That's a nine-point swing from the preseason expectations!
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</article>It's easy to understand why the public loves the Patriots. Tom Brady is an MVP front-runner, Andrew Luck has missed the past two games, and the Patriots have outscored the Colts 191-73 in their past four meetings (including playoffs). Even so, this seems to be a massive overreaction and could be the optimal time to buy low on Indy.
Luck is expected to play against the Patriots. In his short career, he has gone 19-7 ATS at home while Brady has gone just 37-38 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown. The Colts also fit our updated 80/20 rule, which details a system that has gone 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) with a 40.1 percent return on investment.
This will likely be the most heavily bet game of the week, which further magnifies the significance of betting against the public. Ignore recent history and confidently take the Colts and the points.
ESPN INSIDER
When we discuss contrarian betting in the NFL, we include many strategies that can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one of our cornerstone philosophies, but we also recommend picking teams on losing streaks, fading winning streaks, and taking the league's least popular teams.
Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" may be surprised to learn sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss, and there is never a more favorable time to bet against a team than after a victory.
Granted, the term "loss" can seem ambiguous. Our strategies typically focus on underdogs, who are often able to lose the game while still covering the spread. Just last week our picks posted a 2-2 ATS record although those teams went 1-3 straight up.
What happens when bettors are repeatedly burned by the same teams? What happens when these teams fail to cover the spread, and bankrolls suffer? When bettors start to lose money faster than Nicolas Cage at a paleontology auction, panic sets in. That's when opportunistic contrarians can capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.
Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we tested whether bettors overreacted to teams that had performed poorly against the spread (ATS). Our hypothesis was that bettors would be unwilling to take teams that had consistently failed to cover the spread, and the value would be amplified when their opponent had been profitable.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
We found that teams with an ATS winning percentage of 30 percent or less went 514-458 ATS. This figure was somewhat misleading since it included a number of 0-1 teams. Since we wanted to highlight teams that had repeatedly failed to cover, we examined games from Week 6 or later. This addition cut our sample size in half, but increased our winning percentage from 52.9 percent to 55.7 percent.
For our next step, we looked at opposing teams with an ATS winning percentage of at least 51 percent, which once again cut our sample size in half but improved our system's win rate from 55.7 percent to 62.6 percent.
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS Record <30% | 514-458 (52.9%) | +30.78 | +3.2% |
| ATS Record <30%, Week 6 or later | 245-195 (55.7%) | +37.45 | +8.5% |
| ATS Record <30%, Opp ATS Record >51%, Week 6 or later | 124-74 (62.6%) | +43.97 | +22.2% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Week 6 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>Why does this work?
We have observed that square bettors often overreact and refuse to pick teams that haven't covered the spread in recent weeks. Oddsmakers anticipate this public perception and typically shade their opening lines, forcing bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. These shaded lines create artificial line value for contrarians willing to go against the grain.
[h=2]Week 6 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Minnesota Vikings
When it rains, it pours. This clichéd proverb rings especially true for Kansas City fans who on Sunday had one of the toughest weeks in recent memory. Despite opening as 10-point favorites, the Chiefs lost by one point to the Bears -- K.C.'s fourth straight defeat -- and reportedly lost Jamaal Charles for the season after the star running back suffered a torn ACL.
This may be bad news for Chiefs fans, but it's great news for contrarian bettors who have the opportunity to buy low. Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point road dog and has received just 31 percent of spread bets. With a majority of public bettors taking Minnesota, Kansas City has dropped from +3.5 to +4.
We'll gladly take this free half-point and buy low on the Chiefs this week.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers
It's rare that we'll be able to take a favorite, but this is a unique situation. In a surprising twist, the Seahawks (2-3) enter Week 6 with a losing record while the Panthers are just one of six remaining undefeated teams.
Despite both teams seemingly heading in opposite directions, Carolina opened as a 5.5-point underdog and has received 41 percent of spread bets.
One of the driving factors in this line is clearly Seattle's crowd, the 12th man. Since 2005, the Seahawks have gone 64-40 ATS at home, but just 44-57 ATS on the road. This represents the best home-field advantage in football by a wide margin.
I also had the opportunity to speak with Michael Grodsky from the William Hill sportsbook, who informed me that 68 percent of their tickets have taken Carolina, but they had actually taken more money on Seattle. Essentially, squares are taking the Panthers and sharps are taking the Seahawks, making this the quintessential "Pros vs. Joes" game.
Seattle is still available at -6.5 at many offshore sportsbooks, so we would strongly suggest shopping for the best line before placing any bets.
San Diego Chargers (+10) at Green Bay Packers
This season San Diego has covered the spread just once, while Green Bay remains one of three teams to go undefeated against the spread. Once again, this represents an excellent opportunity to buy low and sell high.
The Packers opened as a 9.5-point favorite and have received 80 percent of early spread bets, moving the line to -10. This half-point line move is particularly meaningful since 10 points represent the third-most common margin of victory over the past decade.
Getting a free half-point based on public perception is significant, but we also have a number of historically profitable betting systems triggered on the Chargers.
Road teams on short rest have been undervalued by bettors, which bodes well for San Diego after Monday night's heartbreaker. We also found that double-digit underdogs have performed at a high level, especially after a loss. Finally, we found that Chargers QB Philip Rivers has posted a 32-21 ATS career record as an underdog, which further validates our system.
Green Bay has been arguably the league's best team in early action, but 10 points is simply too many against a talented Chargers offense.
Indianapolis Colts (+8) vs. New England Patriots
Before the start of the season, CG Technology posted lines for every regular-season game and listed the Colts as one-point home favorites. Several months later, the Patriots opened -6.5 at the Westgate and have received 88 percent of spread bets. This overwhelming public support has pushed the line to -8. That's a nine-point swing from the preseason expectations!
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</article>It's easy to understand why the public loves the Patriots. Tom Brady is an MVP front-runner, Andrew Luck has missed the past two games, and the Patriots have outscored the Colts 191-73 in their past four meetings (including playoffs). Even so, this seems to be a massive overreaction and could be the optimal time to buy low on Indy.
Luck is expected to play against the Patriots. In his short career, he has gone 19-7 ATS at home while Brady has gone just 37-38 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown. The Colts also fit our updated 80/20 rule, which details a system that has gone 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) with a 40.1 percent return on investment.
This will likely be the most heavily bet game of the week, which further magnifies the significance of betting against the public. Ignore recent history and confidently take the Colts and the points.
