Consumer confidence at a 4 year high

BASEHEAD · Apr 25, 2006

April 25, 2006 | ANNE D'INNOCENZIO....AP

Consumers shrugged off higher gasoline prices in April and sent a widely watched barometer of consumer confidence to its highest level in almost four years, a private research group said Tuesday.
But the New York-based Conference Board warned that if fuel prices continue to rise, it would cast a pall on consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity.
The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to 109.6, up from a revised 107.5 in March. April's reading was the highest since the index touched 110.3 in May 2002. Analysts had expected a reading of 106.4. Confidence has been on an upswing since November in the aftermath of the Gulf hurricanes, except for a sharp dip in February.
"Improving present-day conditions continue to boost consumers' spirits," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center in a statement. "Recent improvement in the labor market have been a major driver behind the rise in confidence in early Looking ahead, consumers are not as pessimistic as they were last month." Franco added that expectations for the economy and labor market have been trending downward since peaking in 2003, however. She said that "while prices at the pump have yet to impact confidence, further increases could dampen consumers' mood."

JinnRikki · Apr 25, 2006

Consumer debt at an all time high also. Real wages for working stiffs at an all time low. And the bubble that's been floating this boat, the housing market is continuing a down turn.
The sky may be blue in the neo-con world but there are storm clouds on the horizon. Happy talk anyone?

Darwinian · Apr 25, 2006

Jinn, typical Lib gloom & Doom. You root for failure to meet your own agenda. Very selfish...grow up

JinnRikki · Apr 25, 2006

We'll see.

CAPNCRUNCH · Apr 25, 2006

JR is right. You guys were all over Clinton for the great economy spurred on by the internet but not a one of you righties has admitted to Bush's magic trick - artificially low interest rates that have been maintained even when their pricetag has been placed in the trillions or more when the check has to be paid to China, Saudi Arabia, et al.. when Bush and his follies are shown the door. This is not wishing bad on the nation or the world, just an observation of my opinion, one I have seen many times in the Wall Street Journal, no less.

RobFunk · Apr 25, 2006

JinnRikki said:
Consumer debt at an all time high also. Real wages for working stiffs at an all time low. And the bubble that's been floating this boat, the housing market is continuing a down turn.
The sky may be blue in the neo-con world but there are storm clouds on the horizon. Happy talk anyone?

Quoted for truth.

Those credit card company execs wont be getting pension plans like the IBM guy, that is for sure.

TheRightWing · Apr 25, 2006

That consumer debt at an all time high is fudged a little, when you factor in that mortgages are now included as debt. Revolving debt was passed onto many mortgages but overall our revolving debt has slowed down the pass four years from what I read.

BASEHEAD · Apr 25, 2006

CAPN CRUNCH said:
JR is right. You guys were all over Clinton for the great economy spurred on by the internet but not a one of you righties has admitted to Bush's magic trick - artificially low interest rates that have been maintained even when their pricetag has been placed in the trillions or more when the check has to be paid to China, Saudi Arabia, et al.. when Bush and his follies are shown the door. This is not wishing bad on the nation or the world, just an observation of my opinion, one I have seen many times in the Wall Street Journal, no less.

No cappy...the interest rates were actually low.I bought my home thanks to low rates....locked and loaded.The rates go up and down...its cyclical.I hate to inform you all.Its no magic....its a carefully enacted policy to increase consumer spending.Something very much needed.In addtion to tax cuts staved off heavy inflation and fended off recession.

You can complain about folks being offered credit at great rates and taking "advantage" of it but the public is the source of the abuse.Is it the govt fault these people have no financial responsibility?The rates didnt go from low to high overnight either.It was gradually raised.

Why wouldnt they be artifically high as well,given your interpretation of the situation?Are you under the illusion that long term rates have a point where they should always be.This is how the economy shows its flexibilty.

WildBill · Apr 25, 2006

Consumer spending relentlessly going up isn't the greatest thing for a country that is in dire need of increased savings. My problems and the problems the majority of the public has with this team in the WH aren't economic. If the Congress changes hands I would guarantee few changes will be made to the economic policies. Of course not extending "emergency" tax cuts would be claimed to be tax increases by Rove's soldiers, but whatever.

docmercer--banned · Apr 25, 2006

$4-4.50 and Christ himself is booted out of office ....

the war in Iraq they were able to sell since most Americans were not personally affected

Now, the pocketbooks are taking a hit and they cant blame Cindy Sheenan or Bill Clinton

BASEHEAD · Apr 25, 2006

doc mercer said:
$4-4.50 and Christ himself is booted out of office ....

the war in Iraq they were able to sell since most Americans were not personally affected

Now, the pocketbooks are taking a hit and they cant blame Cindy Sheenan or Bill Clinton

Did you not read the headline of the thread dipshit?Consumer confidence HIGH .Maybe do nothings like yourself are being hurt in the "pocketbook"....Im sure your gay ass quite a collection of them.

HiloBoy · Apr 25, 2006

A researcher at the University of Florida says that gas prices are likely to go even higher, and consumer confidence has already dropped
UF research director Chris McCarty says consumer confidence seems to be driven by the price of gasoline. He adds that gas prices will likely go up as the summer traveling season approaches.
That means gas prices could go up by as much as 15 cents, pushing the price for regular unleaded in most parts of Florida well above $3 a gallon.
According to a UF report, consumer confidence this month has already fallen two points to 89, following a four-point hike in March.
The consumer confidence measurement is used to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing

BASEHEAD · Apr 25, 2006

The Conference Board or UFla.....hmmm.

cussin'it · Apr 25, 2006

BASEHEAD said:
Did you not read the headline of the thread dipshit?Consumer confidence HIGH .Maybe do nothings like yourself are being hurt in the "pocketbook"....Im sure your gay ass quite a collection of them.

Base, I heard it, read about it, and won't dismiss it. It is good news and yes the economy is taking the fuel cost hit pretty well, so far. Consumer spending is always a optimistic sign.

BASEHEAD · Apr 26, 2006

Fund buying hits record high.

 
Marketwatch.
Apr 25, 2006 | Jonathan Burton


Fund buying hits record in March Investors confident, making careful choices By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch Last Update: 2:37 PM ET Apr 25, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Investors poured record amounts of cash into mutual funds in March, research firm Lipper Inc. said, suggesting that strong consumer confidence is extending to the stock and bond markets. "Five or six months of good markets give people increasing comfort and courage," said Don Cassidy, a senior research analyst at Lipper.
Stock funds took in an estimated $34 billion in new money for the month -- the best March on record, and only the second time since 1982 that funds garnered more cash in March than in February, Lipper reported late Monday. Fund flows in March even surpassed the $31 billion added in January, which typically is the strongest month for new fund purchases.
Bond funds, defying rising interest rates, added $6.4 billion in March, Lipper said. Money-market funds, meanwhile, saw outflows of $7.2 billion. That was the smallest exodus in the past five years, as short-term rates remained attractive.
Diversified U.S. stock funds added $16.7 billion in March -- the group's largest inflow since January 2004 -- vs. about $9 billion in February, according to Lipper. Another $16.4 billion went to world-stock funds, which invest internationally as well as in the United States.
Popular bond investments included funds focused on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, and overseas bond funds as a play on the weak U.S. dollar. Demand for sector funds appeared to cool, with the group netting about $300 million.
Real-estate funds added $700 million, but only about $100 million went to natural-resources funds, and $250 million was pulled from poor-performing health/biotech sector funds.
"Generally, a small amount of flows into sector funds means the market is not overvalued," Lipper's Cassidy said.
Diversified funds, not sectors, attracted the most money in March. Fund buyers congregated in core and multicap categories, which tend to take a more cautious and broad investment approach.
Small-cap funds, for their part, have been the best performers so far this year, but investors don't seem to be chasing returns. "The strength is apparently not being driven by 'hot' money," Cassidy added.
With a little luck Including March's total, about $94 billion of new cash cascaded into funds in the first quarter of the year -- a figure topped only by the first quarter of 2000, when the technology-driven bull market peaked.
Nowadays, however, the new money seems much less speculative, Lipper said.
A rosier scenario is that the recent strong push into funds instead could signal that baby boomers are becoming more serious about retirement preparations.
Cassidy pointed to a current advertising campaign from fund giant Fidelity Investments featuring former Beatle Paul McCartney, noting that Fidelity has credited the ads with substantial increases into its funds. Such a chord, when struck, "would also logically benefit other fund families," Cassidy noted. "A shift in seriousness about investing would be a major plus for the industry" and for the investment portfolios of future retirees, he added.
Of course, a less sanguine explanation, Cassidy said, is that U.S. and international markets have been rising for more than three years, and individual investors are only now letting go of the bitter memories of the 2000-02 bear market enough to venture back.
In that case, "a market setback would quickly chill confidence and dampen flows numbers," according to the Lipper analyst. In addition, the first quarter of the year is typically the most robust in terms of buying demand. Said Cassidy: "That alone may be helping to inflate the numbers."

CAPNCRUNCH · Apr 26, 2006

cussin'it said:
Base, I heard it, read about it, and won't dismiss it. It is good news and yes the economy is taking the fuel cost hit pretty well, so far. Consumer spending is always a optimistic sign.

Very classy response to a very unclassy post! Good job Cuss! :103631605

BASEHEAD · Apr 26, 2006

CAPN CRUNCH said:
Very classy response to a very unclassy post! Good job Cuss!

The days of Doc garnering class and/or respect from me are long gone.....remember Cappy the post you singled out was directed right at Doc and not Cuss.

BASEHEAD · Apr 27, 2006

Dow Jones @ six year high....



ABC
Apr 26, 2006 | By Chris Sanders

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow industrials hitting a 6-year high, buoyed by stronger-than-expected earnings from companies such as top brewer Anheuser-Busch Cos. and a key broker's dropping its "sell" rating on General Motors Corp.
The latest string of results in a stronger-than-forecast earnings season overshadowed investors' worries about rising interest rates after orders in March for durable goods such as airplanes and refrigerators surpassed expectations.
Anheuser-Busch reported stronger-than-expected earnings, sending its shares up 5.3 percent, or $2.27, to $44.90 on the New York Stock Exchange. For details see: .
Top U.S. brokerage Merrill Lynch & Co. upgraded General Motors Corp. to "neutral," saying it sees early signs of a turnaround, and making GM the Dow's top gainer as it rose 7.9 percent, or $1.70, to $23.11. .
"The consensus going into the quarter was that earnings were going to (rise) somewhere north of 10 percent and they have handily beat expectations," said Joe Liro, an economist and market strategist with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, who pinned the rising markets on Wednesday on the flow of positive earnings news.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> ended up 71.24 points, or 0.63 percent, at 11,354.49, its highest close since January 19, 2000. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> closed up 3.67 points, or 0.28 percent, at 1,305.41. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> finished up 3.33 points, or 0.14 percent, at 2,333.63.
Government data showed orders for durable goods — manufactured items meant to last three years or more — surged
in March, reviving worries the Federal Reserve would continue to raise rates into the second half of the year to cool a sizzling economy and ward off inflationary pressures.
Stocks also extended Wednesday's upward swing after a report showed a 13.8 percent jump in new home sales in March, which far exceeded expectations.
The Dow Jones index of home builders' stocks <.DJUSHB> rose 1.6 percent. That mirrored gains in stocks such as Toll Brothers Inc. , up 1.1 percent, or 36 cents, at
$33.30.
Weakness in biotech shares limited the Nasdaq's gains.
Shares of Gilead Sciences Inc. , a biopharmaceutical company whose drugs include HIV virus and bird flu treatments, fell 6.7 percent, or $4.11, to $57.31.
Analysts said there was concern that Gilead's royalties for flu drug Tamiflu for the year may not meet expectations.
Shares of AT&T Inc. and BellSouth Corp. , which own Cingular Wireless, and Verizon Communications , which owns Verizon Wireless with Vodafone Group Plc , all rose and helped lead the S&P 500 higher on Wednesday after Sprint Nextel Corp. , the No. 3 U.S. wireless service, reported results below expectations and fed concerns it is losing market share to its bigger rivals.
AT&T rose 2.2 percent, or 56 cents, to $26.16, while BellSouth was up 2.1 percent, or 69 cents, at $33.74. Shares of Verizon rose 1.8 percent, or 58 cents, to $33.08. All are traded on the NYSE.
While the broader stock market appears to be taking the spike in bond yields in stride, one group is taking it on the chin: utilities. The S&P 500's utilities index <.GSPU> is down by about 1 percent for a second straight day and is now the second-worst performer, behind health care <.GSPA>, in the index for the year.
Utilities pay the largest dividend yields over any other stock market sector and become less appealing when bond yields rise and become more competitive. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note's yield hit 5.13 percent during the day — its highest in about four years. Late in the day, the 10-year note's yield was 5.11 percent, up from 5.07 percent on Tuesday, while its price was down 9/32 late Wednesday at 95-11/32.

TheRightWing · Apr 27, 2006

those damn tax cuts I tell ya!!!

cussin'it · Apr 27, 2006

Base, come on now the Dow isn't the end all when gaging the overall health of the economy.

Them tax cuts sure bought a lot of votes! Dems should try that.