I was doing the math here. According to the latest state by state polls as of today, Bush is ahead 273 to 241 with about 3 states (24 electoral votes) in which the polls are exactly tied. Here is the link Im basing my info on:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Now I was playing around with numbers here. Let's say Kerry ends up winning Minnesota (10) and Maryland (10) both states that Gore won so you can reasonably say Kerry has a better chance of winning them. Then lets say he is able to win in New Hampshire and Maine...Maine is a Gore state and Kerry has home field advantage in NH. You know what the result would be if he did in fact win Minn, NH, Maine and MD? 269-269.
So why would conservatives hate Colorado? Well as it turns out, Colorado has a petition on the ballot that would change the way they count their electoral votes. Instead of it being a "winner take all" state as all states are now, they would award electoral votes based on how many congressional districts they win. So let's say Bush wins Colorado which he probably will, there are at least 2 heavily democratic congressional districts in the state that Kerry would win because of the numbers. That would mean that Bush would NOT get the full 9 electoral votes that Colorado has. Instead he would get 7 and Kerry would get 2 which would put the end result of this election at Kerry 271 and Bush 267.
Just to clarify, the petition in Colorado WOULD take effect IMMEDIATELY so this will be in play for this presidential election because the people who actually VOTE in the electoral college do not do so until December I beleive. As it stands now, the current polls in Colorado show that changing the state to electoral votes being awarded by congressional district is ahead by about 58-42%.
If you thought 2000 was bad, 2004 could be a lot LOT worse. Just something to think about.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Now I was playing around with numbers here. Let's say Kerry ends up winning Minnesota (10) and Maryland (10) both states that Gore won so you can reasonably say Kerry has a better chance of winning them. Then lets say he is able to win in New Hampshire and Maine...Maine is a Gore state and Kerry has home field advantage in NH. You know what the result would be if he did in fact win Minn, NH, Maine and MD? 269-269.
So why would conservatives hate Colorado? Well as it turns out, Colorado has a petition on the ballot that would change the way they count their electoral votes. Instead of it being a "winner take all" state as all states are now, they would award electoral votes based on how many congressional districts they win. So let's say Bush wins Colorado which he probably will, there are at least 2 heavily democratic congressional districts in the state that Kerry would win because of the numbers. That would mean that Bush would NOT get the full 9 electoral votes that Colorado has. Instead he would get 7 and Kerry would get 2 which would put the end result of this election at Kerry 271 and Bush 267.
Just to clarify, the petition in Colorado WOULD take effect IMMEDIATELY so this will be in play for this presidential election because the people who actually VOTE in the electoral college do not do so until December I beleive. As it stands now, the current polls in Colorado show that changing the state to electoral votes being awarded by congressional district is ahead by about 58-42%.
If you thought 2000 was bad, 2004 could be a lot LOT worse. Just something to think about.