Laying that hook with Brock only reason this just a 1u play for me. Agree totally hou worth a play for that very reason, fading that rookie 1st time starter in the playoffs no less! Against a top tear defense to boot! Not to mention hou dominated this game when they met in Mexico only to lose on carr 4th qrtr heroics!
I like your angle. I think that's one of, if not the biggest data point in handicapping this game. I think second one is Houston defense which only gets better at home. In my experiences defenses have more to gain from playing at home in a playoff scenario, where shit is loud as hell compared to the gains on offense. Houston plays great at home more often than not (one of the best home field teams). Brock has one of his best games in Mexico by Brock standards against the Raiders. I thought the Texans played better overall that game but still found a way to lose. With Derek Carr in and more key players healthy. Much different situation now. I'm not slam dunking the Texans here but it's definitely worth a unit for me.
Not sure a team can outplay the other by a wider margin and still lose the way hou did in Mexico (with help from refs if I recall). Rushed for 100 more yards, ran 20 more plays, held ball for 37 minutes. Carr magic and a bad couple calls gave raiders a win in a game they should have lost by a td. There no way for me to look at that game and not be on hou considering oak missing their MVP and a all pro tackle!!
Houston not only has a good defense, but it runs a fairly complex defense, with deception galore that will be difficult for Cook to deal with, they will give him so many different looks that you have to think there will be some INT's.
So you have a rookie QB on the road, was the # 3, his first start in the NFL (a playoff game!), against a top defense.
Oh, and Raiders all pro left tackle is out.
Raiders did not look so hot without Carr against a lame duck eliminated Denver team last week, did they? They are pros and want to win and will start out strong but IMO they know losing Carr takes them out of the hunt to get to the Super Bowl and if they get behind will struggle with a green QB. The Texans at least are at home and are healthier and have a strong D and want to erase the memory of last year's playoff embarrassment.
So you have a rookie QB on the road, was the # 3, his first start in the NFL (a playoff game!), against a top defense.
Oh, and Raiders all pro left tackle is out.
Raiders did not look so hot without Carr against a lame duck eliminated Denver team last week, did they? They are pros and want to win and will start out strong but IMO they know losing Carr takes them out of the hunt to get to the Super Bowl and if they get behind will struggle with a green QB. The Texans at least are at home and are healthier and have a strong D and want to erase the memory of last year's playoff embarrassment.
All of this.
Nate Allen also out, didn't pass concussion protocol so another vet won't play. Joseph I believe gets back on the field.
My buddies are trying to convince me we have a chance. I'm trying to convince myself. But rookie starting his 1st game, and lets not forget he rarely suited up this year too. Key people out, not to mention the several very key players banged up and less than 100%.
Houston, as mentioned, wants to erase the bad taste of some pretty pathetic playoff performances.
I have a fear this will get ugly. Not in a Patriots curb stomp kind of way, but I think we will see a team really struggle on offense. I think Houston schemes to run away from Mack and have some success moving the ball. I think Houston jumps on them right away.
I can see 10-0 late 1Q/early 2Q and the Raiders having a hard time getting into any type of rhythm on both sides of the ball.
A final of 23/26-(3,6,maybe 10) wouldn't surprise me at all.
I really want to believe we can get a win, but the logical side of me says it aint gonna happen.
Would love to be flat out wrong.
Better quarterbacks will be playing Monday night. Lean Houston but nobody can feel too confident with a bet right now with these quarterbacks. If I drink enough to bet large on this game I'll take fedorowitzl over 39.5. He had 82 yards last time they played and osweiler tends to look for him a good amount as a safety valve.
He a rookie who been inactive his entire 1st season until forced to dress cause carr injury. Starting his 1st NFL game on the road and in the playoffs, against a very good d that made it tough on Carr for 3 qrtrs in Mexico, a d that perennially among the top 5ish in the league in opponents passer rating. If this kid comes in and leads raiders to victory I'll tip my cap and live with it knowing odds were in my favor.
