Conference USA picks WK 1

[Livid]

Gonna come back through and add more write-up as I get a chance but want to go ahead and get these picks posted first.

UTEP vs Buffalo - 1* pick

This game could go either way but I feel Buffalo is underrated this year as far as the sun-belt goes and will come out with the win, especially since they are at home. Not confident enough to lay the points here though. UTEP is using a new 3-3-5 defense which could give Buffalo a lot of trouble as most teams are not used to going against it. All the signs point to O59 being the right play here based on stats from last year but with the new changes to the game clock I'm loathe to play too many overs at the beginning of the season. I'm gonna go against what seems too obvious here and take the Under. I think UTEP's defense shows some significant improvement this year compared to last.


Final pick - Under 59
----------------------------

Rice vs SMU - 2* pick

SMU adds June Jones as head coach this year and he will surely install the high powered offense that he ran at Hawaii. However, he has just named a freshman as the starting QB who will likely have some problems in his first game. Rice should continue with its high-powered offense from last season but the question is have they improved on defense. I just don't think SMU's QB is going to be able to get it done here and keep pace with Rice's offense.

Final pick - Rice -3

--------------------------

Memphis +10
Tulsa/UAB lean towards tulsa but most likely no play
ECU +10
Southern Miss -10 1/2

Adding write ups for these very soon

 

[Gravy]

Buffalo is in the MAC conference not the Sun Belt

 

[Livid]

Buffalo is in the MAC conference not the Sun Belt

Typo on my part but it's unfortunate because I guess that calls in to question my entire post now.

 

[GoSooners]

Typo on my part but its unfortunate because I guess that calls in to question my entire post now.

Not at all. I like your reasoning on the UTEP-Buffalo under. Good writeups. BOL

 

[WormyPix]

I agree with Sooners, I think you've just convinced me to put a small play on Rice. June was our coach at Hawaii, and he tends not to put too much emphasis on any one game no matter how large (Sugar Bowl), so seeing as he's starting a frosh, he'll probably just see how he does and not care about the outcome.

 

[Livid]

Memphis vs Ole Miss 1* pick

This series has been very close the past 5 years. Ole Miss came away with 2 and 3 point victories the last 2 seasons and lost the 2 before that. Both of the games Miss won came down to the final drive. Miss is giving up 10 points here when I grabbed it at opening although it is now down to 7 1/2 on most sites. Both clubs have had some significant injuries in the preseason with Mississippi losing 2 of their best D-linemen behind Oher and Memphis losing their starting and backup Left Guard and 2 backup centers to foot injuries. Both teams are breaking in new transfer QB's so it is yet to be determined how they perform. Although expectations are high for both. Memphis' strength lies in their WR corp which is one of the better ones in the nation. They have a significant advantage vs the Mississipi secondary assuming QB Arkelon Hall is able to get them the ball. I just feel like 10 points is way to much to lay in this game and Memphis is the play.

Final pick - Memphis +10

Rest of the writeups coming tommorow morning.

 

[hanabada]

Gonna come back through and add more write-up as I get a chance but want to go ahead and get these picks posted first.


Rice vs SMU - 2* pick

SMU adds June Jones as head coach this year and he will surely install the high powered offense that he ran at Hawaii. However, he has just named a freshman as the starting QB who will likely have some problems in his first game. Rice should continue with its high-powered offense from last season but the question is have they improved on defense. I just don't think SMU's QB is going to be able to get it done here and keep pace with Rice's offense.

Final pick - Rice -3

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There is a good chance that June will start the season with a loss. Looking back when a new quarterback started the season with JJ's r&s offense, he started off losing especially against D1 competition. Robinson led team lost to USC, couldn't find data about TC, Rolo lost to Florida Atlantic, and Graunke/ Brennan lost to USC, Brennan then lost to Alabama the next year and in 2007 Brennan finally got his win against D2 competition. I realize some of these teams are better than Rice, but I believe thefreshman qb will have a lot of read problems and make some freshman mistakes. I think I read that SMU have some good skilled players, but they still need to get the ball. gl with your play.

 

[MattMillen+]

I agree. 10 points is a lot to lay in this series. The last few years Ole Miss has won by 2, 3, 4, and 7.

 

[Livid]

Adding some Thur nite non C-USA games here for record keeping purposes.

NC State +14
Troy -6 1/2
Wake Forest -11

I'll do write-ups for these also if I get time before the games. More interested in getting the C-USA games done first though.

 

[Livid]

Last addition for the day Oregon State -3 for 2 units.

 

[Gravy]

Livid,I just to let you know that I wasn't making questions at all about your post in here.All I wanted to do was correct your mistake on this about Buffalo being in the MAC.Its good to read your post and your reason why you like a team on a game as many wont do that in here.I want to want to wish you the BOL this college football season and GL on your picks this weekend.Gravy

 

[rayray]

memphis alum here. im on the homer play but small. our defense is gonna give up some huge numbers again this year. cant decide to go to the river or go to the game this weekend. hate this game fucking up my trips every year.

 

[Livid]

Livid,I just to let you know that I wasn't making questions at all about your post in here.All I wanted to do was correct your mistake on this about Buffalo being in the MAC.Its good to read your post and your reason why you like a team on a game as many wont do that in here.I want to want to wish you the BOL this college football season and GL on your picks this weekend.Gravy

No problem at all man. I'm glad you corrected it and I didn't take it as a slight in any way. It was an error that needed to be pointed out. Good luck on the season.

 

[SoonerBS]

Gonna come back through and add more write-up as I get a chance but want to go ahead and get these picks posted first.

UTEP vs Buffalo - 1* pick

This game could go either way but I feel Buffalo is underrated this year as far as the sun-belt goes and will come out with the win, especially since they are at home. Not confident enough to lay the points here though. UTEP is using a new 3-3-5 defense which could give Buffalo a lot of trouble as most teams are not used to going against it. All the signs point to O59 being the right play here based on stats from last year but with the new changes to the game clock I'm loathe to play too many overs at the beginning of the season. I'm gonna go against what seems too obvious here and take the Under. I think UTEP's defense shows some significant improvement this year compared to last.


Final pick - Under 59
----------------------------

Rice vs SMU - 2* pick

SMU adds June Jones as head coach this year and he will surely install the high powered offense that he ran at Hawaii. However, he has just named a freshman as the starting QB who will likely have some problems in his first game. Rice should continue with its high-powered offense from last season but the question is have they improved on defense. I just don't think SMU's QB is going to be able to get it done here and keep pace with Rice's offense.

Final pick - Rice -3

--------------------------

Memphis +10
Tulsa/UAB lean towards tulsa but most likely no play
ECU +10
Southern Miss -10 1/2

Adding write ups for these very soon

As is so often the case in CUSA, you have to decide who is going to "outscore" who, not who is going to "stop" who. With that in mind, I think Rice is the correct side.

Good luck, dude . . . .

 

[Livid]

Adding Tulsa -13

Also Utah +3 and FAU +23 1/2

I didn't have time to do writeups for all of these this week I plan on getting them all done early next time.


C-USA picks YTD 1-0-1
All Picks YTD 3-2-1

 

[GE4511]

love the USM pick. but what do you see in ECU? cusa teams usually dont fare well against power conferences

 

[Livid]

love the USM pick. but what do you see in ECU? cusa teams usually dont fare well against power conferences

You're right that C-USA teams don't usually do well against power teams but an exception has been ECU. I consider ECU to be the best all-around team in C-USA this season. They regularly beat or keep the games close against BCS opponents.

Last year @ VT the final score was 7-17. This year ECU should be better and VT should be worse, especially on defense. If I had to pick a big upset tomorrow it would be this game but I'd rather just take the points.

 

[GE4511]

not on the tulsa bandwagon i take it?

 

[Livid]

not on the tulsa bandwagon i take it?

I like Tulsa to win C-USA again this year. I just think they are much more of a one-dimensional offensive team that will do well in C-USA because of so many weak defenses. I do think ECU is the best all-around in C-USA though which would give them more of a chance to hang around with some of the BCS teams.

I wouldn't be suprised at all to see a ECU vs Tulsa C-USA champ game this year.

 

[GE4511]

i could see that happening. gotta keep rooting for my golden eagles though!