I'm with you. Going with the points and adding ML play(s) to my original bets to cover my main bets. I think both combining -3 + ML and straight ML plays will be very effective here given a) playoffs b) match-up history. Also, taking the points now looks to be favorable as well for Pats backers based on my ratings. I try my hardest to be unbiased when I pick one of my favorite teams at look at it from an objective point of view. I really try to look for spots to bet against them - this isn't one of them. I have this line ranging anywhere from 4 to 5 Patriots so I see value in taking the points as well as obvious ML plays.
Yeah, I am a Pats fan too, so I try to be objective. To be honest, I was susprised by this line at first -- if you had asked me what the line would be in a hypothetical matchup on Saturday morning I would''ve guessed a PK or maybe even Denver -1. But these are unusual circumstances -- we had no idea if the Pat's team was mailing it in the last two weeks and if they would return to dominance when healthy.
They looked amazing and the O-line only allowed 1 hit on Brady. So all of a sudden it feels close to the Pats of week 1-10. meanwhile the Broncos look like they still don't have a QB. The PAt's really should've won in Denver this year -- they went to OT after a bunch of shady calls -- and that was without almost Lewis, Edelman and Amendola, (and probably o-line and defensive players who I can't recall).
But my bet is totally on Xs and Os and has nothing to do with consensus or sharp/square stuff -- this is a straight up prediction that Brady will beat Manning.
