Conference and Divisional Wagers

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Not Bad. I agree with the Rutgers value pick. Clemson can suprise, especially now that Bowen is gone. Unfortunately for Florida State, they can not say the same. They still have their Bowden.
 

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Not Bad. I agree with the Rutgers value pick. Clemson can suprise, especially now that Bowen is gone. Unfortunately for Florida State, they can not say the same. They still have their Bowden.
Florida St. has basically been stuck in neutral since OU beat them in 2000 for the BCS title. I see no reason why this year should be any different.
 

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Florida St. has basically been stuck in neutral since OU beat them in 2000 for the BCS title. I see no reason why this year should be any different.

The article actually picks Clemson at +1000 for the ACC
 

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Miami Fl/Florida St

This match on opening week may set the trend for the ACC this year. Going to be a very competitive conference and there will be some upsets.
I don't do futures but Clemson is one of those teams that just seems to disapoint me, one way or the other, and it seems like when I ignore them they ring the bell. Now the whole ACC is that way. If Maryland goes to Cal and plays them tough I may just have to leave that conference alone for a while. Miami does have the next week off and then GT, VT, and Oklahoma all right in a row. Ouch.
 

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This match on opening week may set the trend for the ACC this year. Going to be a very competitive conference and there will be some upsets.
I don't do futures but Clemson is one of those teams that just seems to disapoint me, one way or the other, and it seems like when I ignore them they ring the bell. Now the whole ACC is that way. If Maryland goes to Cal and plays them tough I may just have to leave that conference alone for a while. Miami does have the next week off and then GT, VT, and Oklahoma all right in a row. Ouch.

Bet the OVER in the Miami/FSU game. Both OC's run stuff the opposing defenses struggle with.
 

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When I get confused about a conference I start looking at the best coaches:

Paul Johnson
Butch Davis
Frank Beamer
Jim Grobe
Tom O'Brien

I can almost guarantee you the winner of the ACC will come from this group. At least it eliminates the other 7 teams.
 

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Gs

When I get confused about a conference I start looking at the best coaches:

Paul Johnson
Butch Davis
Frank Beamer
Jim Grobe
Tom O'Brien

I can almost guarantee you the winner of the ACC will come from this group. At least it eliminates the other 7 teams.


Good Point - Swinney has not earned his spurs yet. Noticed you did not include Bobby Bowden also. I don't think Randy Shannon is the answer for anybody. GT plays 11 games in a row without a break. I like Butch Davis and it should probably be noted that LY NC lost to VT 17-20, Vir 13-16, Maryland 15-17. Turn those around and they are 11-2 (kind of a parallel to Arizona). Still without a doubt, the hardest conference to focus in on.
 

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I was thinking about FSU the other day and was wondering if their big win over Wisconsin in their bowl game will give us some "over value" to play with early. In watching the first half of that game, I thought Wiscy may win since FSU couldn't stop their ground attack then after some big TO's Wiscy rolled over and let FSU have their way.

There's always optimism out of Tallahassee because of all the talent but this year I see a little extra edge or some "prior bowl game misconception" being present.

Same with Iowa, everyone is really high on them the way they finished last season. They are a slow starting team every year. Traditionally, they are famous for doing good in their bowl game and then fall on their face early against ISU.

thoughts anyone?
 

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I was thinking about FSU the other day and was wondering if their big win over Wisconsin in their bowl game will give us some "over value" to play with early. In watching the first half of that game, I thought Wiscy may win since FSU couldn't stop their ground attack then after some big TO's Wiscy rolled over and let FSU have their way.

There's always optimism out of Tallahassee because of all the talent but this year I see a little extra edge or some "prior bowl game misconception" being present.

Same with Iowa, everyone is really high on them the way they finished last season. They are a slow starting team every year. Traditionally, they are famous for doing good in their bowl game and then fall on their face early against ISU.

thoughts anyone?
Very good points. I'm looking at a lot of these bowl games. And I'm seeing many wins that just aren't as impressive as they look. FSU beat Wisky because Wisky has a knucklehead as a coach. I don't think the Badgers will ever get anywhere as long as Bielema is coaching there. I'm betting that Bowden won't get that lucky against Butch Davis or Jim Grobe. As for Iowa, I've always felt the same way. Slow starting. When I see how close a bad Iowa State teams plays them every year, it always makes me wonder what would happen if Iowa played them in the last week of the season instead of the first month. You can get a lot of line value in these early games if you paid attention to some of these bowls last season. Unfortunately this is one of the worst first week slate of games that I've ever seen. Hopefully the line value will carry over to the second week for some of these games.
 

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I was thinking about FSU the other day and was wondering if their big win over Wisconsin in their bowl game will give us some "over value" to play with early. In watching the first half of that game, I thought Wiscy may win since FSU couldn't stop their ground attack then after some big TO's Wiscy rolled over and let FSU have their way.

There's always optimism out of Tallahassee because of all the talent but this year I see a little extra edge or some "prior bowl game misconception" being present.

Same with Iowa, everyone is really high on them the way they finished last season. They are a slow starting team every year. Traditionally, they are famous for doing good in their bowl game and then fall on their face early against ISU.

thoughts anyone?


Tootight: I think that Joe Pub looks at those Bowl games and reads more into them than guys like you and me. It may be a homers impetus to stick with his team because "they finished strong". Every year is a new year.
My philosophy is to see how much a team lost, then see what they have coming back but I have not even considered their bowl wins in my breakdowns or analysis. I look at the whole body of work and then try to find weaknesses or strengths and project from there. Their game at Iowa State will tell us a little and their game with Arizona will tell us a lot.
 

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Remember how much pre-season love WVU got last year after beating OU their BCS Bowl game? They lost most of their defense, the coaching staff, and all world full back. They were still huge favorites early ranked in the top 10.

It's always fun to go back and look at the preseason rankings after a year has gone bye. I totally forgot that Michigan was considered a top 25 team last year!

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankingsindex?seasonYear=2008&weekNumber=1&seasonType=2
 

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Remember how much pre-season love WVU got last year after beating OU their BCS Bowl game? They lost most of their defense, the coaching staff, and all world full back. They were still huge favorites early ranked in the top 10.

It's always fun to go back and look at the preseason rankings after a year has gone bye. I totally forgot that Michigan was considered a top 25 team last year!

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankingsindex?seasonYear=2008&weekNumber=1&seasonType=2


You know there is a side bar to this whole issue also. It is my hope that when Joe Public assess week one that they base a lot of their opinions (bets) more on a teams LY's performances (including the bowls). If all they do is scan over the preseason top 25's they will make it easier for all of us also. To me the secret early on is the lower key teams with upside like So. Miss, Utep, Arizona, Illinois Texas A & M,etc. Hopefully they will focus in on continuing to bet on or against teams that did well for them LY and teams showing up on the top 25 listings. Oklahoma did exceptionally well ATS LY but I doubt that will carryover. Will Washington and Washington State still be bet against teams, etc. Maybe we all wind up betting the same as them from time to time but I think Joe Pub relies on perception more than the guys on here. I hope Joe Pub focuses on the high profile games because in week one I am looking elsewhere. Preseason love may be music to our ears when all is said and done. Those preseason rating are all about perception. Only 15 of Steele's top 25 made it till the end of the season. Could hold true again this year.
 

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When I get confused about a conference I start looking at the best coaches:

Paul Johnson
Butch Davis
Frank Beamer
Jim Grobe
Tom O'Brien

I can almost guarantee you the winner of the ACC will come from this group. At least it eliminates the other 7 teams.
Having said this about the coaches in the ACC, there are two things that we don't know yet. Swinney could be a hell of a coach at Clemson and we just don't know it yet. And Jimbo Fisher at FSU could really be the genuis he is portrayed to be, but the players just didn't have a grasp of his system in his first year. We should find out a lot this year. This conference is definitely up for grabs.
 

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Clemson down to +500 (from +1000)

Ole Miss down to +200 (from +350)

Hope you got in.
 

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