Of course looking at HOW the games played out can be important, but we're talking about statistical analysis here and the original poster is trying to make a determination on who he wants to bet because of a point difference or a yardage difference.
To me, the most telling game of the season if you want to look at common opponents, is the game you left out in your 2nd post - Ole Miss.
LSU, Tennessee, those games mean nothing to me. Those are average teams at best, different set of circumstances, different parts of the schedule, etc. Ole Miss is the only team the Gators have faced that have comparable talent and size in the trenches to Bama - both teams have a 1st rounder and a potential 3rd rounder on their O-lines, and a potential 1st rounder and potential 3rd rounder on their D-lines.
Alabama is also the most experienced team the Gators will face this year as their defense is loaded with juniors and their senior captain at safety. And their senior QB JPW, is the most experienced QB the Gators have faced this year - who is also reminiscent of Jevan Snead - has experience, doesnt light up the scoreboard but does enough to manage the game behind his massive O-line and running game. And if Florida wants to cheat up on the running game and play 8 in the box like they usually need to do to stop the run, they have Julio Jones who is 6'4" on the outside to throw jump balls to over the top, and Major Wright is horrific at ball hawking and help over the top. He is always looking to lay someone out, but he is not the kind of guy to run over to the sideline like Reggie Nelson and break up a pass play. Hopefully Ahmad Black will be doing this.
Nick Saban is the best coach the Gators have faced this season. Shannon, Fulmer, Bowden, etc don't hold a candle to the effect Saban has on his team right now.
Percy Harvin's injury is HUGE in this game. Demps, Rainey, etc too small to carry the load. Harvin is not only fast, agile, and quick, but he is very strong, makes NFL cuts, and would be deadly against any opposition - especially Bama.
Florida runs the majority of their plays right up the gut on a Tebow option read, where the back either takes it and runs between the tackles, or Tebow pulls the handoff and goes straight ahead. Needless to say, those holes were gaping vs. most teams this season. Nobody is going to move Terrence Cody, so the option read, which is arguably Florida's best offensive play - will suffer - especially with no Harvin. That one shuffle side step that Demps or Rainey will have to make to dodge Cody gives Bama defenders the additional time they need to diagnose the play and swarm to the football before Rainey/Demps goes flying through the hole untouched.
The Gators weakness of their team is their defensive line, and our line has not faced the talent, size, etc of any team on the schedule like Bama. Caldwell is a captain, a leader and a helluva blocker. He blows people off the ball right up the gut, and Andre Smith is a lock for the 1st round. With Caldwell blowing average defensive players like Marsh off the line, and Smith protecting JPW's blindside vs. an overrated Cunningham and Dunlap who haven't produced anything close to the speedy Moss/Harvey combo, Alabam should be able to convert on 3rd downs, sustain drives, and keep the Gators offense on the sideline.
You beat speed by punching it in the mouth. You dont try to run at speed, you try and run over it. There is a reason teams dont run the spread option in the NFL, and Saban, a former NFL coach with a defensive mind, knows exactly what he needs to do to stop it. Meyer has not faced Saban yet.
Some of this stuff you could say in the opposite direction: bama has not faced anyone as good as Florida, Saban hasnt faced Meyer, etc. But I give the nod to Bama because they are battle tested. They have had to play 4 quarters all year to win. They have had to find a way to win, battle adversity, and they are the ones getting no respect. NONE. All we hear is Oklahoma Florida. It's ridiculous.
If I am Bama, I want the ball first. I want to go out there, ram the ball right down the Gators throat with twin tailbacks Coffee and Ingram, on this weak D-Line, and chew up clock and punch it in for a TD. With Florida down 7-0, something they are not used to, and a 60/40 crowd in favor of Bama in the dome, and no Percy Harvin, Florida may go 3 and out 1st possession to a fired up swarming Bama defense with a lead. Ball back to Bama. Another clock chewing drive vs. a tired defense that was just on the field for 6-8 mins. And they go up 10-0 or 14-0. Now Florida, who has not been battle-tested all year because they have blown everyone out and their starters havent played 4 quarters in 8 weeks, has their backs against the wall and is suddenly playing catch up. Something they are not used to.
That is how I see this game progressing as of right now.
Hopefully I am wrong.
The key to this game for Florida is getting on the board first.
Really would lean to the under as well. Not going to make any bets on this game unless I am betting Florida and I am not betting Florida unless something major hits me in the face this week.
My 2 cents.
