First time posting plays here. I joined up a couple weeks ago, been posting a little here and there. Honestly, I like to wait a few weeks in both NFL and NCAA before I'm comfortable enough to really start posting plays and upping my wagers. Been treading water for the most part so far this season in NCAA, have hardly played any NFL at all, and might not even start this week.
I came from across the street, if anyone cares. Don't like posting there though, it's a complete shit-show, and I rarely even read the forums any more, aside from a few threads/cappers that interest me. Posted here are there over the years, but figured since I signed up here to watch the CG-ShitShow, I might as well try to add some production to the board and discuss some games. So here we go.
Unless otherwise noted, all these are going to be 1 unit plays (laying 1.1 to win 1). I'm not here for attention, and all these 100 unit bombs, and "plays of the year" threads are straight-up amateur hour, and quite nauseating. I'm not saying I don't go over 1 unit on plays, I do. But you aren't going to get a 10 unit Monday Night Bomb to make up for a down weekend. I prefer to grind it out, and if I'm struggling too bad, I'll pull the plug and find other ways to entertain myself.
Last week I had 25 games on my lean list. LOL. Way too many. Struggled narrowing it down, so played them all (less than 1 unit each), went 12-11-2. LOL. Talk about medicore. This week I had another long list, but felt good about how I whittled away the games I thought could be trouble. Tried hard to stay away from road chalk (although not completely), and did my best to keep bad teams off my card. The worse a team is, the higher the variance for their performance. I really try hard to not take a short road favorite, especially in spreads under 10, when the home dog probably has a decent shot at winning. Last night was a perfect example. On paper, Miami looked to be the better team and Cincy's D getting thrashed vs. Memphis was fresh on everyone's mind. But what had Miami really done this year? Not much, aside from choking away the game vs. a so-so Nebraska team before sneaking the win out in OT. Anyway, that's a little about me. Let's get to the plays.
These are my plays so far, already put in. I'll post the rest of my leans below, which may/may not move up to actual plays. I'm not big on huge write-ups, but will give a brief reasoning on my play. Think long, think wrong.
South Carolina +2.5 @ Mizzou -- Mauk is out, that might be a negligible difference. Either way, Mizzou has looked really average this year so far. SC is not an elite team by any stretch, and has looked poor at times, but I think they are the better team here and get the road win. Just can't get past Mizzou barely squeaking by UCONN 9-6 and also struggling vs. Arky State.
West Virginia +6.5 @ Oklahoma -- WVU hasn't played much competition so far, but they have played well vs. all 3 opponents, including a shut out vs. rushing machine Ga State. If I was an OU backer, I'd be worried about their D giving up points and yards to a below average Tulsa team. Yeah, a nice come from behind win @ Tennessee looked good, but really ask yourself how much of that was OU, and how much was Tennessee choking (which they showed AGAIN that will do). Tennessee is improving, but they aren't there yet. I like the points here, not calling a SU win for WVU, but they can hang in this one.
Boston College +7 @ Duke -- BC's defense is legit. Their offense on the other hand.....well, let's just hope for another slugfest. NIU is no offensive slouch, and BC held them to one offensive score. FSU, could only scrap together two scoring drives. So it's not as if they've been completely untested. Duke is coming off of a big win vs. Ga Tech, after throwing up a stinker the week before and only scoring 10 points vs. Northwestern. Long story short, this is a going to be a low scoring game, so I'll gladly take 7 points and the team with the better D.
Florida State -19.5 @ Wake Forest -- Not a Golson fan at all, but FSU has more than enough firepower to blow this one out of the water. Wake is Wake, always. Even when they are better than the normal Wake, they are still pretty bad. Losing by DD to Cuse, squeaking by Army and losing at home to IU, has shown me no reason to be worried about them staying in this one. FSU over the years has had no issue running it up on teams, so not worried about backdoor. Wake is also averaging 300 yards a game through the air, and FSU pass D has been stout so far (allowing only 116). Granted, for FSU that is against fairly weak passing teams.
Arkansas +7 @ Tennessee -- Not sure what to make of Arky, and I did go against them last week, when they finally show up! Tennessee (as noted above) is improved, no doubt, but Arky is big and should be able to garner enough yards and eat enough clock to make this close, if not have a shot at the win. Despite their 0-3 start, Arky D hasn't been THAT bad. Yeah, giving up 35 to TT is an eyesore, but I don't see Vols attacking and moving like Tech does on offense. Another close game here, another game where I love getting that many points.
Miss State +6.5 @ Texas A & M -- (Yeah, a fucking theme on these road dogs this week!) Good QB, good defense, getting the points, sign me up. A & M isn't bad, snuck out a W last week in OT, but MSU just TCB @ Auburn and held them to 9 points. Blah blah blah, another game that I think can go either way as far as who wins and just can't pass up the 6+ point cushion.
Michigan -14 (-120) -- Impending weather could be a factor, but the earlier game time will hopefully avoid that. Maryland has look atrocious and seems to be in a state of disarray. I was against Michigan last week and stomping BYU like that was impressive, even considering BYU's injuries and rough road to start the year. I'm not usually a "hook" buyer, but for some reason I did here. Michigan has a history of letting me down and let's hope I'm not a week late in jumping on them. Their run D has been solid, and that's how Maryland is getting most of their yardage, so hoping that continues, and if it does I see no way why Michigan can't score enough to cover. If the hurricane fucks this up, so be it. Live and learn.
LEANS
Texas-TCU OV 70 (not sure I trust Horns offense, but TCU is so banged up on D that UT has to find 28+, right?
Kansas State +7.5 (not sold on Okie State yet, so like the line, but not sold on KST either, so jury still out)
Mich State -21.5 (purdue is so bad, on both sides. MSU can win by 30 if they want, the question is do they want to?)
Southern Miss -16 (No. Texas has been horrible this year, and So Miss has a couple results..still USM is not a good team so?)
UTSA -3.5 (UTEP is really bad, but I don't trust UTSA is good enough to cover as a road fave)
NIU -2.5 (going to stay away, but think Huskies are good enough to win @ CMU)
After writing up those leans, I feel only MSU and USM are really potential plays, but open to discussion.
If anyone wants to discuss any of these games more indepth, or throw another into the mix, I am all ears. I didn't come here to pound my chest or prove anything to anyone. I came here to help myself win money, and discuss games. Something that I think is lacking on many of these gambling boards.
BOL everyone................:smoking:
I came from across the street, if anyone cares. Don't like posting there though, it's a complete shit-show, and I rarely even read the forums any more, aside from a few threads/cappers that interest me. Posted here are there over the years, but figured since I signed up here to watch the CG-ShitShow, I might as well try to add some production to the board and discuss some games. So here we go.
Unless otherwise noted, all these are going to be 1 unit plays (laying 1.1 to win 1). I'm not here for attention, and all these 100 unit bombs, and "plays of the year" threads are straight-up amateur hour, and quite nauseating. I'm not saying I don't go over 1 unit on plays, I do. But you aren't going to get a 10 unit Monday Night Bomb to make up for a down weekend. I prefer to grind it out, and if I'm struggling too bad, I'll pull the plug and find other ways to entertain myself.
Last week I had 25 games on my lean list. LOL. Way too many. Struggled narrowing it down, so played them all (less than 1 unit each), went 12-11-2. LOL. Talk about medicore. This week I had another long list, but felt good about how I whittled away the games I thought could be trouble. Tried hard to stay away from road chalk (although not completely), and did my best to keep bad teams off my card. The worse a team is, the higher the variance for their performance. I really try hard to not take a short road favorite, especially in spreads under 10, when the home dog probably has a decent shot at winning. Last night was a perfect example. On paper, Miami looked to be the better team and Cincy's D getting thrashed vs. Memphis was fresh on everyone's mind. But what had Miami really done this year? Not much, aside from choking away the game vs. a so-so Nebraska team before sneaking the win out in OT. Anyway, that's a little about me. Let's get to the plays.
These are my plays so far, already put in. I'll post the rest of my leans below, which may/may not move up to actual plays. I'm not big on huge write-ups, but will give a brief reasoning on my play. Think long, think wrong.
South Carolina +2.5 @ Mizzou -- Mauk is out, that might be a negligible difference. Either way, Mizzou has looked really average this year so far. SC is not an elite team by any stretch, and has looked poor at times, but I think they are the better team here and get the road win. Just can't get past Mizzou barely squeaking by UCONN 9-6 and also struggling vs. Arky State.
West Virginia +6.5 @ Oklahoma -- WVU hasn't played much competition so far, but they have played well vs. all 3 opponents, including a shut out vs. rushing machine Ga State. If I was an OU backer, I'd be worried about their D giving up points and yards to a below average Tulsa team. Yeah, a nice come from behind win @ Tennessee looked good, but really ask yourself how much of that was OU, and how much was Tennessee choking (which they showed AGAIN that will do). Tennessee is improving, but they aren't there yet. I like the points here, not calling a SU win for WVU, but they can hang in this one.
Boston College +7 @ Duke -- BC's defense is legit. Their offense on the other hand.....well, let's just hope for another slugfest. NIU is no offensive slouch, and BC held them to one offensive score. FSU, could only scrap together two scoring drives. So it's not as if they've been completely untested. Duke is coming off of a big win vs. Ga Tech, after throwing up a stinker the week before and only scoring 10 points vs. Northwestern. Long story short, this is a going to be a low scoring game, so I'll gladly take 7 points and the team with the better D.
Florida State -19.5 @ Wake Forest -- Not a Golson fan at all, but FSU has more than enough firepower to blow this one out of the water. Wake is Wake, always. Even when they are better than the normal Wake, they are still pretty bad. Losing by DD to Cuse, squeaking by Army and losing at home to IU, has shown me no reason to be worried about them staying in this one. FSU over the years has had no issue running it up on teams, so not worried about backdoor. Wake is also averaging 300 yards a game through the air, and FSU pass D has been stout so far (allowing only 116). Granted, for FSU that is against fairly weak passing teams.
Arkansas +7 @ Tennessee -- Not sure what to make of Arky, and I did go against them last week, when they finally show up! Tennessee (as noted above) is improved, no doubt, but Arky is big and should be able to garner enough yards and eat enough clock to make this close, if not have a shot at the win. Despite their 0-3 start, Arky D hasn't been THAT bad. Yeah, giving up 35 to TT is an eyesore, but I don't see Vols attacking and moving like Tech does on offense. Another close game here, another game where I love getting that many points.
Miss State +6.5 @ Texas A & M -- (Yeah, a fucking theme on these road dogs this week!) Good QB, good defense, getting the points, sign me up. A & M isn't bad, snuck out a W last week in OT, but MSU just TCB @ Auburn and held them to 9 points. Blah blah blah, another game that I think can go either way as far as who wins and just can't pass up the 6+ point cushion.
Michigan -14 (-120) -- Impending weather could be a factor, but the earlier game time will hopefully avoid that. Maryland has look atrocious and seems to be in a state of disarray. I was against Michigan last week and stomping BYU like that was impressive, even considering BYU's injuries and rough road to start the year. I'm not usually a "hook" buyer, but for some reason I did here. Michigan has a history of letting me down and let's hope I'm not a week late in jumping on them. Their run D has been solid, and that's how Maryland is getting most of their yardage, so hoping that continues, and if it does I see no way why Michigan can't score enough to cover. If the hurricane fucks this up, so be it. Live and learn.
LEANS
Texas-TCU OV 70 (not sure I trust Horns offense, but TCU is so banged up on D that UT has to find 28+, right?
Kansas State +7.5 (not sold on Okie State yet, so like the line, but not sold on KST either, so jury still out)
Mich State -21.5 (purdue is so bad, on both sides. MSU can win by 30 if they want, the question is do they want to?)
Southern Miss -16 (No. Texas has been horrible this year, and So Miss has a couple results..still USM is not a good team so?)
UTSA -3.5 (UTEP is really bad, but I don't trust UTSA is good enough to cover as a road fave)
NIU -2.5 (going to stay away, but think Huskies are good enough to win @ CMU)
After writing up those leans, I feel only MSU and USM are really potential plays, but open to discussion.
If anyone wants to discuss any of these games more indepth, or throw another into the mix, I am all ears. I didn't come here to pound my chest or prove anything to anyone. I came here to help myself win money, and discuss games. Something that I think is lacking on many of these gambling boards.
BOL everyone................:smoking:
