Got back on track last week, going 3-2. It could have been a 4-1 day if Alabama could have pulled it out, but you win some and you lose some. Hopefully more winners than losers this week.
Home team in caps.
SOUTH FLORIDA -2.5 Cincinnati
Prefer to take the points here with the team who rushes the ball better and stops the rush better. Cincinnati is averaging 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr while SF only averages 2.7 ypr against teams allowing 3.6 ypr. Both teams defend the rush well, with Cincinnati allowing just 2.2 ypr against teams averaging 3.4 ypr and SF allowing 3.1 ypr against teams averaging 3.8 ypr. The weakness to the Cincinnati defense is their pass defense, which is allowing 7.2 yps against teams averaging just 6.5 yps but I doubt SF will be able to take advantage of that. SF is only averaging 5.3 yps against teams allowing 7.1 yps. The Cincy pass offense has been well below average and SF has defended the pass very well, but with SF unlikely to do much damage through the air, I prefer the better rush offense and defense. Cincy qualifies in a 111-65-3 fundamental rushing situation in this game. CINCINNATI 24 SOUTH FLORIDA 20
Michigan -4 MICHIGAN STATE
Pretty tough to ask a team to lay this many points on the road, when they have failed to beat lesser competition on the road this year by more than three points. Michigan lost badly to Oregon by four points (but were down considerably worse in that game), lost to Iowa by three points and needed a huge comeback against Minnesota to win that game by three points. Now, they play a very solid Spartan team on the road, in a rivalry game. Michigan runs the ball best, averaging 4.6 ypr against teams allowing just 3.8 ypr but they will find that a little tougher against MSU, who allows just 2.5 ypr against teams averaging 3.9 ypr. MSU held previously good running teams Iowa (who averages 4.0 ypr) to just 2.7 ypr and held Minnesota (who averages 5.6 ypr) to just 3.8 ypr and that was in Minnesota. For MSU, they are a little below average running the ball, averaging just 3.7 ypr against teams allowing 3.9 ypr and average 7.5 yps against teams allowing 7.3 yps. But they'll face a tough Michigan secondary that allows just 4.8 yps against teams averaging 6.9 yps. Home dogs, in general, who allow 2.5 ypr or less, are 58-37-3 since 1988. Michigan State qualifies in a rivalry situation of mine, which is 207-142-3 (3-1 TY). They also qualify in a terrific revenge situation, which is 61-22-1 (4-2 TY). And with rest and revenge on their side, they qualify in another situation, which is 36-11-1 (1-0 TY). Knowing Michigan is just 5-18 ats as a favorite on the road since 1998 (1-2 TY with their only cover a 3 point SU win) and just 3-16 ats if their opponent's win percentage is .333 or greater, makes it awful tough to take Michigan in this spot. Also, since 1998, if Michigan is a road favorite and their opponent won their last game, they are just 1-13 ats. Last but not least, since 1989, Michigan is just 1-7 ats at Michigan State, and they have been favored in each of those games, winning only two of the eight games by more than three points. Too many factors in Michigan State's favor to not play them here. Michigan State has numerous solid situations in their favor, defend what Michigan does best (run the ball), has a history of beating this team here and the road favorite (Michigan) has a recent history of not performing very well at all in this situation. MICHIGAN STATE 27 MICHIGAN 21
AIR FORCE -3 Utah
This one is very simple. Utah qualifies in the same situation that Oregon State (vs Washington State) qualified in last week (Win), that Washington (vs Oregon State) qualified in two weeks ago (Win), that Florida (vs LSU) qualified in three weeks ago (Win), and Kansas State (vs Texas) qualified in four weeks ago (Win). That situation is now 4-0 this year and 64-21-0 since 1988, including a subset, which is 48-10 and a whopping 43-6 since 1991. The situation is hot, to say the least. It is based on Utah losing as a favorite last week and now playing in bounce back mode. Utah also qualifies in similar situations to that, which are 84-43-0 (5-1 TY), 25-5-0 (2-0 TY) and 35-11-0 (2-0 TY). They are all based on the same premise of bouncing back this week. And this is a pretty good match up for Utah to bounce back with. Utah is just average running the ball, averaging 3.6 ypr against teams allowing 3.6 ypr but they'll face a below average AF rush defense, which is allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr. But the biggest advantage they have in this game is their passing offense, which is averaging 7.5 yps against 7.0 yps and will face an AF secondary, which is allowing 7.2 yps against 7.0 yps. Utah isn't great on defense, but they defend the run pretty well, despite being run all over last week by NM, as they allow 3.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr and they'll face an AF team who is averaging 4.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr. But the biggest weakness to the Utah defense is their pass defense, which is allowing 7.5 yps against 7.2 yps. It's very unlikely AF will be able to exploit that seeing they just don't throw the ball enough to take advantage of that. My final numbers favor Utah to win this game and knowing the incredibly strong situation they are in, I will too. UTAH 27 AIR FORCE 21
Colorado State -11 WYOMING 57
Very solid match up for the over, barring any bad weather. This is very simple. CSU has an above average offense, which is gaining 6.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl. They'll face a below average defense from Wyoming, which is allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.5 yppl. Wyoming has an above average offense, which is averaging 5.4 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl, and they'll face a below average CSU defense, which is allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Even better, the match ups inside of those numbers are favorable as well. CSU runs and throws the ball very well, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and that'll match up against a Wyoming defense, which is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr. They also throw the ball extremely well, averaging 10.3 yps against 7.4 yps and that'll match up against a Wyoming secondary that doesn't defend the pass very well, allowing 8.0 yps against 7.4 yps. On the other side, Wyoming is throwing the ball well, averaging 7.0 yps against 6.8 yps and they'll face a CSU secondary that is allowing 7.8 yps against 7.0 yps. Both teams strengths go into the other teams weaknesses. And my final numbers show some value as well, making the over a solid play here. COLORADO STATE 37 WYOMING 27
TEXAS -5.5 Nebraska
This is another simple game for me to play because of the situation that it qualifies in. I realize Texas has stumbled against the two best teams they have faced this year (losing at home to Arkansas and on a neutral field against Oklahoma) but Nebraska has also stumbled badly against the only good team they have played on the road this year (losing at Missouri). I just think Nebraska is too one dimensional to win a game on the road against a solid and balanced team. Nebraska, since 1996 is just 5-14 ats (1-1 TY) on the road, when facing an opponent that has a win percentage of at least .333 and is not undefeated. In addition to that, if they are laying 14 or less points or getting points, they are just 2-9 ats. But the biggest reason I am playing this game is because Texas qualifies in a terrific home momentum situation after their win last week. That situation is now an amazing 126-50-3 (8-1 TY). It includes wins this year with Texas Tech over New Mexico (42-28) Michigan over Notre Dame (38-0), Purdue over Notre Dame (23-10), Oklahoma over UCLA (59-24), Texas Tech over Iowa State (52-21), Mississippi over Alabama (43-28), Colorado State over Air Force (30-20) and last week Michigan over Purdue (31-3). The only loss came a few weeks back when Oklahoma only beat Missouri by 21 (34-13), laying 28 points. As you can see, even with the one non-cover, every game as ended up with a win margin of at least 10 points. My numbers support Nebraska in this game but they don't factor in this situation, which would actually give the value to Texas. They also don't factor in Nebraska has played all but two of their games at home, which is a bit misleading as well. No question, Nebraska can defend against both, the run and the pass but I think Texas is too balanced to be completely shut down and I think Nebraska is too one dimensional to survive on the road, unless they force numerous turnovers. And I'm not going against the incredible situation Texas is in this week. TEXAS 31 NEBRASKA 13
WASHINGTON -1.5 Oregon
Once again, I'll take what I perceive to be the better balanced team, which is Oregon. Oregon averages 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while Washington is only averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl. On defense, Oregon is allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while Washington is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The best match up in this game is Oregon's passing offense, which is averaging 8.4 yps against 6.8 yps, going against a Washington pass defense, which is allowing 7.6 yps against 7.1 yps. Oregon also averages more yards per rush than Washington (3.6 ypr to Washington's 3.1 ypr) and allows less yards per rush (2.5 ypr to Washington's 3.2 ypr) and that along with a few other factors qualifies Oregon in a 111-65-3 fundamental rushing situation. My final numbers also support Oregon in this game, which, when combined with the fundamentals, make Oregon the play here. OREGON 34 WASHINGTON 24
BEST BETS
YTD 22-30-1 -25.00%
2% CINCINNATI +2.5 (Friday)
3% MICHIGAN STATE +4
2% UTAH +3
2% CSU/WYOMING OVER 57 No higher than 59
2% TEXAS -5.5
2% OREGON +1.5 Must be a dog
Home team in caps.
SOUTH FLORIDA -2.5 Cincinnati
Prefer to take the points here with the team who rushes the ball better and stops the rush better. Cincinnati is averaging 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr while SF only averages 2.7 ypr against teams allowing 3.6 ypr. Both teams defend the rush well, with Cincinnati allowing just 2.2 ypr against teams averaging 3.4 ypr and SF allowing 3.1 ypr against teams averaging 3.8 ypr. The weakness to the Cincinnati defense is their pass defense, which is allowing 7.2 yps against teams averaging just 6.5 yps but I doubt SF will be able to take advantage of that. SF is only averaging 5.3 yps against teams allowing 7.1 yps. The Cincy pass offense has been well below average and SF has defended the pass very well, but with SF unlikely to do much damage through the air, I prefer the better rush offense and defense. Cincy qualifies in a 111-65-3 fundamental rushing situation in this game. CINCINNATI 24 SOUTH FLORIDA 20
Michigan -4 MICHIGAN STATE
Pretty tough to ask a team to lay this many points on the road, when they have failed to beat lesser competition on the road this year by more than three points. Michigan lost badly to Oregon by four points (but were down considerably worse in that game), lost to Iowa by three points and needed a huge comeback against Minnesota to win that game by three points. Now, they play a very solid Spartan team on the road, in a rivalry game. Michigan runs the ball best, averaging 4.6 ypr against teams allowing just 3.8 ypr but they will find that a little tougher against MSU, who allows just 2.5 ypr against teams averaging 3.9 ypr. MSU held previously good running teams Iowa (who averages 4.0 ypr) to just 2.7 ypr and held Minnesota (who averages 5.6 ypr) to just 3.8 ypr and that was in Minnesota. For MSU, they are a little below average running the ball, averaging just 3.7 ypr against teams allowing 3.9 ypr and average 7.5 yps against teams allowing 7.3 yps. But they'll face a tough Michigan secondary that allows just 4.8 yps against teams averaging 6.9 yps. Home dogs, in general, who allow 2.5 ypr or less, are 58-37-3 since 1988. Michigan State qualifies in a rivalry situation of mine, which is 207-142-3 (3-1 TY). They also qualify in a terrific revenge situation, which is 61-22-1 (4-2 TY). And with rest and revenge on their side, they qualify in another situation, which is 36-11-1 (1-0 TY). Knowing Michigan is just 5-18 ats as a favorite on the road since 1998 (1-2 TY with their only cover a 3 point SU win) and just 3-16 ats if their opponent's win percentage is .333 or greater, makes it awful tough to take Michigan in this spot. Also, since 1998, if Michigan is a road favorite and their opponent won their last game, they are just 1-13 ats. Last but not least, since 1989, Michigan is just 1-7 ats at Michigan State, and they have been favored in each of those games, winning only two of the eight games by more than three points. Too many factors in Michigan State's favor to not play them here. Michigan State has numerous solid situations in their favor, defend what Michigan does best (run the ball), has a history of beating this team here and the road favorite (Michigan) has a recent history of not performing very well at all in this situation. MICHIGAN STATE 27 MICHIGAN 21
AIR FORCE -3 Utah
This one is very simple. Utah qualifies in the same situation that Oregon State (vs Washington State) qualified in last week (Win), that Washington (vs Oregon State) qualified in two weeks ago (Win), that Florida (vs LSU) qualified in three weeks ago (Win), and Kansas State (vs Texas) qualified in four weeks ago (Win). That situation is now 4-0 this year and 64-21-0 since 1988, including a subset, which is 48-10 and a whopping 43-6 since 1991. The situation is hot, to say the least. It is based on Utah losing as a favorite last week and now playing in bounce back mode. Utah also qualifies in similar situations to that, which are 84-43-0 (5-1 TY), 25-5-0 (2-0 TY) and 35-11-0 (2-0 TY). They are all based on the same premise of bouncing back this week. And this is a pretty good match up for Utah to bounce back with. Utah is just average running the ball, averaging 3.6 ypr against teams allowing 3.6 ypr but they'll face a below average AF rush defense, which is allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr. But the biggest advantage they have in this game is their passing offense, which is averaging 7.5 yps against 7.0 yps and will face an AF secondary, which is allowing 7.2 yps against 7.0 yps. Utah isn't great on defense, but they defend the run pretty well, despite being run all over last week by NM, as they allow 3.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr and they'll face an AF team who is averaging 4.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr. But the biggest weakness to the Utah defense is their pass defense, which is allowing 7.5 yps against 7.2 yps. It's very unlikely AF will be able to exploit that seeing they just don't throw the ball enough to take advantage of that. My final numbers favor Utah to win this game and knowing the incredibly strong situation they are in, I will too. UTAH 27 AIR FORCE 21
Colorado State -11 WYOMING 57
Very solid match up for the over, barring any bad weather. This is very simple. CSU has an above average offense, which is gaining 6.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.5 yppl. They'll face a below average defense from Wyoming, which is allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.5 yppl. Wyoming has an above average offense, which is averaging 5.4 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl, and they'll face a below average CSU defense, which is allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Even better, the match ups inside of those numbers are favorable as well. CSU runs and throws the ball very well, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and that'll match up against a Wyoming defense, which is allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr. They also throw the ball extremely well, averaging 10.3 yps against 7.4 yps and that'll match up against a Wyoming secondary that doesn't defend the pass very well, allowing 8.0 yps against 7.4 yps. On the other side, Wyoming is throwing the ball well, averaging 7.0 yps against 6.8 yps and they'll face a CSU secondary that is allowing 7.8 yps against 7.0 yps. Both teams strengths go into the other teams weaknesses. And my final numbers show some value as well, making the over a solid play here. COLORADO STATE 37 WYOMING 27
TEXAS -5.5 Nebraska
This is another simple game for me to play because of the situation that it qualifies in. I realize Texas has stumbled against the two best teams they have faced this year (losing at home to Arkansas and on a neutral field against Oklahoma) but Nebraska has also stumbled badly against the only good team they have played on the road this year (losing at Missouri). I just think Nebraska is too one dimensional to win a game on the road against a solid and balanced team. Nebraska, since 1996 is just 5-14 ats (1-1 TY) on the road, when facing an opponent that has a win percentage of at least .333 and is not undefeated. In addition to that, if they are laying 14 or less points or getting points, they are just 2-9 ats. But the biggest reason I am playing this game is because Texas qualifies in a terrific home momentum situation after their win last week. That situation is now an amazing 126-50-3 (8-1 TY). It includes wins this year with Texas Tech over New Mexico (42-28) Michigan over Notre Dame (38-0), Purdue over Notre Dame (23-10), Oklahoma over UCLA (59-24), Texas Tech over Iowa State (52-21), Mississippi over Alabama (43-28), Colorado State over Air Force (30-20) and last week Michigan over Purdue (31-3). The only loss came a few weeks back when Oklahoma only beat Missouri by 21 (34-13), laying 28 points. As you can see, even with the one non-cover, every game as ended up with a win margin of at least 10 points. My numbers support Nebraska in this game but they don't factor in this situation, which would actually give the value to Texas. They also don't factor in Nebraska has played all but two of their games at home, which is a bit misleading as well. No question, Nebraska can defend against both, the run and the pass but I think Texas is too balanced to be completely shut down and I think Nebraska is too one dimensional to survive on the road, unless they force numerous turnovers. And I'm not going against the incredible situation Texas is in this week. TEXAS 31 NEBRASKA 13
WASHINGTON -1.5 Oregon
Once again, I'll take what I perceive to be the better balanced team, which is Oregon. Oregon averages 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while Washington is only averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl. On defense, Oregon is allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while Washington is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The best match up in this game is Oregon's passing offense, which is averaging 8.4 yps against 6.8 yps, going against a Washington pass defense, which is allowing 7.6 yps against 7.1 yps. Oregon also averages more yards per rush than Washington (3.6 ypr to Washington's 3.1 ypr) and allows less yards per rush (2.5 ypr to Washington's 3.2 ypr) and that along with a few other factors qualifies Oregon in a 111-65-3 fundamental rushing situation. My final numbers also support Oregon in this game, which, when combined with the fundamentals, make Oregon the play here. OREGON 34 WASHINGTON 24
BEST BETS
YTD 22-30-1 -25.00%
2% CINCINNATI +2.5 (Friday)
3% MICHIGAN STATE +4
2% UTAH +3
2% CSU/WYOMING OVER 57 No higher than 59
2% TEXAS -5.5
2% OREGON +1.5 Must be a dog
