20* 0-0
15* 0-1 -15 units
10* 8-7 +6 units
5* 14-10 +17 units
22-18 +8 units
Here are some early looks........basically at this point, this is the way I am seeing these games and why........last week I liked Mich St and Florida St the most at the first of the week but by Saturday they weren't my top plays......Just wanted everyone to know so that there wouldnt be any confusion....When I post a unit number by the play is when it actually becomes a play and before that it is just an opinion....
Thursday
SMU +17.5 My numbers have the Mustangs losing by 10 in this game so there is some value here but it will be hard to put money on a team that has had trouble moving the ball and that cant stop anyone!!!!!! One thing in favor of SMU is the fact that Tulane just comes off a hard hitting game against Ala and should be a little beaten up........
Friday
UCONN +3 Last week I played LOU big at home and they covered but this week they are playing a team that will move the ball against their defense and will slow them down in the run game which opened everything for them last week.....I see this as a close game right now and as of now.....I would take the points
Saturday (I like some of these alot!!!!)
Temple +3 Owls are at home and finally playing someone that is the same caliber team......WMU looks good on papere but they have been playing teams like Tenn Tech and Idaho while Temple has been teams like UCONN and Penn St.....WMU is giving up 3.6 yds per rush and Temple is giving up 4.8 yds per rush but when you check the stats against teams that are at their same level (Buf and Army) you will find that they only give up 3.45 yds per rush so the stats are misleading. I really like the Owls in this game and believe they win this one SU!!!!!!!!!
Marshall +14 These line opened around 17 and has dropped down to 14 at most places.....it looks like we lost alot of value and most likely will not play it but WVA is in shambles and if I played this one it would most definitely be on the dog.........WVA gives up 154.3 yds on the ground each week and its hard to pull away from teams when you are sitting on the sidelines because your defense cant get off the field
Syracuse +15 I have the Orange losing this game by 10 which gives us value but again its hard to back a team that has this bad of a defense......Pitt isnt very good either and I feel very lucky to win with them last week....Syr can load up the box and stop the Panther run game and they should be in until the end but if they cant stop the run it will be a long day....
Ole Miss +23 The Rebels choked last week vs Vandy with several TO's which took points away and this week their are facing a Florida team coming off a big win at Tenn.....Coach Nutt always seems to play the big boys tough and lose to the weaker conference teams and I think that they will hang around in this one until the end.......
Miss St +24 Bulldogs are terrible on offense but are real good on defense.....The option confused them last week but look for them to be in this game vs LSU all the way and look for LSU to have a little letdown vs this inferior opponent....
Buffalo +6.5 I love Buffalo in this spot!!!!!!! I look for Buffalo to move the ball at will this week vs a very soft CMU defense which allows 144 yds rushing and 279 yds passing per game! Buffalo's defense isnt much better but I think they will get enough stops to win this one SU!!!!
back with more
lewis
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15* 0-1 -15 units
10* 8-7 +6 units
5* 14-10 +17 units
22-18 +8 units
Here are some early looks........basically at this point, this is the way I am seeing these games and why........last week I liked Mich St and Florida St the most at the first of the week but by Saturday they weren't my top plays......Just wanted everyone to know so that there wouldnt be any confusion....When I post a unit number by the play is when it actually becomes a play and before that it is just an opinion....
Thursday
SMU +17.5 My numbers have the Mustangs losing by 10 in this game so there is some value here but it will be hard to put money on a team that has had trouble moving the ball and that cant stop anyone!!!!!! One thing in favor of SMU is the fact that Tulane just comes off a hard hitting game against Ala and should be a little beaten up........
Friday
UCONN +3 Last week I played LOU big at home and they covered but this week they are playing a team that will move the ball against their defense and will slow them down in the run game which opened everything for them last week.....I see this as a close game right now and as of now.....I would take the points
Saturday (I like some of these alot!!!!)
Temple +3 Owls are at home and finally playing someone that is the same caliber team......WMU looks good on papere but they have been playing teams like Tenn Tech and Idaho while Temple has been teams like UCONN and Penn St.....WMU is giving up 3.6 yds per rush and Temple is giving up 4.8 yds per rush but when you check the stats against teams that are at their same level (Buf and Army) you will find that they only give up 3.45 yds per rush so the stats are misleading. I really like the Owls in this game and believe they win this one SU!!!!!!!!!
Marshall +14 These line opened around 17 and has dropped down to 14 at most places.....it looks like we lost alot of value and most likely will not play it but WVA is in shambles and if I played this one it would most definitely be on the dog.........WVA gives up 154.3 yds on the ground each week and its hard to pull away from teams when you are sitting on the sidelines because your defense cant get off the field
Syracuse +15 I have the Orange losing this game by 10 which gives us value but again its hard to back a team that has this bad of a defense......Pitt isnt very good either and I feel very lucky to win with them last week....Syr can load up the box and stop the Panther run game and they should be in until the end but if they cant stop the run it will be a long day....
Ole Miss +23 The Rebels choked last week vs Vandy with several TO's which took points away and this week their are facing a Florida team coming off a big win at Tenn.....Coach Nutt always seems to play the big boys tough and lose to the weaker conference teams and I think that they will hang around in this one until the end.......
Miss St +24 Bulldogs are terrible on offense but are real good on defense.....The option confused them last week but look for them to be in this game vs LSU all the way and look for LSU to have a little letdown vs this inferior opponent....
Buffalo +6.5 I love Buffalo in this spot!!!!!!! I look for Buffalo to move the ball at will this week vs a very soft CMU defense which allows 144 yds rushing and 279 yds passing per game! Buffalo's defense isnt much better but I think they will get enough stops to win this one SU!!!!
back with more
lewis
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