College football -- September 15-17

[NYReb]

Last week: 6-7 (-16*)
YTD: 19-15 (+13.4*)
10* plays: 3-2
Same-game teasers: 6-2

Guys, I apologize again for my off-week last week. I fell into some old bad habits and took some chances. I will do everything possible to right the ship this weekend.

10* Ole Miss +3
I actually jumped on this when it came out at +4, but I'm willing to take my chances on record at +3. I don't usually like to start my thread this early in the week, and usually the only reason I do is that I see potential line movement. You might not be able to get Ole Miss plus a field goal by Saturday. This game should be a pick'em. If we can get any points at all, we're already ahead.

First let's look at Vanderbilt. None of these guys have ever been 2-0 before. Upsetting Arkansas in Fayetteville is a high for anyone, let alone guys who are used to losing. They should be pretty giddy and thinking well of themselves. They know that this is a year they should be able to beat the Rebels and move to 3-0. Can they handle being a favorite? The Arkansas team they beat was starting a brand new QB and IMO the Hawgs are a bit overrated early in the year. Their test will be how they do against USC. The point here is: it's not all that shocking that Vandy was able to pull out a win there early this year. Even so, they had to score twice in the 4th quarter to do so. And was the win at Wake Forest all that impressive considered how the Deacons were blown out at Nebraska? I think the Dores might also be a little overrated right now -- perhaps, most importantly, by themselves as well.

I follow recruiting in the SEC very closely. I know that Ole Miss has recruited better than Vandy for each of the last five years. In fact, take Vandy's QB Cutler and put him on Ole Miss and we have the Rebels a touchdown favorite going into Nashville. So on talent differential, Ole Miss comes out several notches ahead. Cutler is the main thing Vandy has going for them. He will be facing a fierce Rebel pass rush all game long.

In another thread someone said that the Ole Miss coaching staff sucks. I find that funny, but I will give him the benefit of there being no way he could possibly know the truth. Last Monday Coach Orgeron was in Los Angeles going over film of the Memphis game with his old boss, Pete Carroll, and going over what changes needed to be made. Talk about dedication to the game, on both their parts!

Anyway, here are a couple of things the general public is not aware of. The Rebels' OL has been banged up all pre-season, and they went against Memphis very short-handed and even starting reserves. The OL that goes against Vandy will be different, in personnel, strength, and health. Ole Miss will be starting a new TB, former Florida prep phenom, sophomore Alan Abrams, who is more the cut-back runner needed in the new offense. Freshman Mico McSwain, a tough speedster who at 200 runs sub 4.4 40's will also be worked in more as well, after being switched to TB from SS midway through fall camp. The offense should be considerably improved over anything anyone saw in the Memphis game.

It is the defense that we saw in the Memphis game that will be the same, if not even better. Maybe the general public couldn't tell in that game how much better the Rebel defense is this year since, oh, since Dolphin DT Tim Bowens was playing in Oxford quiet a few years ago. The Ole Miss defense will prove, as the weeks go on, to be one of the best in the SEC. The talent is there -- all they needed was Orgeron's coaching and inspiration. Vandy will have to beat them, as they did Arkansas, with their passing game. They won't be able to. The Reb's pass rush and secondary are sound and up to the challenge.

OK, I know that I'm using Ole Miss as 10*s in their first two games. It might seem to some that I am mostly a homer, although those who know me will tell you I've gone against the Rebs many times. It will take a few games this year before the betting public and odds-setting computers catch up with Ole Miss. For the truth is, they have an amazing coaching staff. Orgeron is a legend in the making. I like the way he thinks. He is a very, very positive person, and he has a positive impact on those he teaches. Ask those two DTs from USC that he coached last year who are both in the pros now.

So, back to the old principle of find a dog that you expect to win the game. Unless something totally unexpected goes very wrong, Ole Miss will win this game.

More games later in this same thread. Best of luck to all.

 

[the_devil_mann]

Reb,

Pretty good analysis, but my question has to do with Miss's kicker. He is terrible. In a potentially close game or clutch situation (+3) don't you think it is risky to have to possibly rely on his foot?

 

[NYReb]

He's not as bad as it appeared on TV. Actually, there were two of them, both making their first attempts. One guy was 1-1, missing wide right, and the other, who shanked it badly, was 0-1. One does the short stuff and the other does the kickoffs and long FGs. There has been a particular emphasis this week on both the running and kicking games. Expect to see improvement in both.

 

[muffinman]

Reb,
I am also on Ol Mis BIG. I was Estatic when I saw you had them as a 10*. I figured you would be on them. You are 100% right about Orgeron. He can flat out coach. And I agree that this team will have one of the better Ds in the SEC. They contained Williams (one of the better RB in the country).

What are your thoughts on the Bama/SC game? I think there is a talent gap in this one as well. And Bama's D should shut-down Spurrier's fake "Cock-n-gun" offense.

Bol, this weekend, my friend

 

[Kodiak7]

good luck reb..

 

[Proman]

Reb,

Thanks for the write-up. I just was not that impressed with Ole Miss on offense when I saw them play Memphis. Vandy has the better QB which makes them difficult to go against. Good Luck.

 

[SSI]

Reb, this is (SSI)... i never play vandy as a favorite but these guys are going to be sky high for this one,,,,, mainly due to the kwame dotson emotion.. they are bringing in his family and the vandy players loved this guy... i get a lot of vandy talk here and we have 2 guys starting for them (horrocks and divens)... normal years ole miss would be the play but this year is different.. vandy will probably win this game, and go on to a bowl...

 

[chanman83]

Man, I thought I'd never hear the words Vandy and bowl game used in the same sentence.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

gL Reb...Willis is a stud!...

 

[NYReb]

Guys, thanks for all your comments, opinions, and good wishes. Thanks for keeping the thread alive. I see that different people have various thoughts on the Vandy/Ole Miss game. I am sure that Vandy will be sky high. Does that assure that they will be more pumped than Ole Miss? I'm not so sure.

I finally made another wager:

5* Texas A&M -28
SMU will be on a high from upsetting TCU last week, and the Aggies will steamroll them. A good opportunity for A&M to get its offense clicking. I saw this had gone up to 28.5 at Pinnacle, so if you like it I wouldn't wait too long. Then again, a couple of more points might not matter, lol.

I am still working on this week's plays. I intend to be much more cautious this week, as I was extremely displeased over last week's results. However I will have other plays very soon, in this same thread, as always.

:digit:

 

[NYReb]

Muffin, I'm looking at that Bama/SC game, as all SEC games, and I'm not leaning one way or the other yet. Yes, you would think Bama would have the better talent, but you can't underestimate Spurrier as a home dog. Don't think that Shula will outcoach Spurrier. Remember that South Carolina also has an excellent defensive staff. John Thompson might have flopped as a head coach, but he sure can coach defense. And the defensive coordinator at Southern Miss the last few years is now his assistant. Anyway, these are just my thoughts. If I get a firm go for either direction, I'll let you know.

 

[muffinman]

Reb,

Appreciate the feedback. Should be a great game either way.
Let's Kill 'em this weekend, huh!!!!!!!!!!1

 

[NYReb]

5* Alabama +2
I think I talked myself into this (see above). I don't think Bama will go to Columbia and beat the Cocks:shocked: This is one of those games that will prove that coaching sometimes counts more than talent.

 

[islandboy]

Where do you find Bama +2 all I can find is Bama -2. (SOS)

Did you make a mistake or is my book off?

By the way, thanks for all your hard work and guidance. I for one have profited from some of your guidance.

Island

 

[Kegler]

5* Alabama +2
I think I talked myself into this (see above). I don't think Bama will go to Columbia and beat the Cocks:shocked: This is one of those games that will prove that coaching sometimes counts more than talent.

I assume you meant S. Car. +2 ?

 

[JDogg1777]

Bama

South Carolina will still be hurting from the loss last weekend when they could have beat Georgia. Bama's D will be the best defense the Cocks have faced so far with one of the nation's best pass defenses, the only reason that they have given up as many yards through the air as they have now is b/c the oppenents in the first 2 games had to completley abandon the running game early. All week the players have been asked about Steve Spurrier and to a man they all have said they are tired of hearing about it and want to shut them down to shut everyone up. The Cocks best defensive player Ko Simpson is hurting, and as he goes so goes the D. Bama's 2 backup running backs that were hurt against So. miss are both back at pratice and ready to go. When you breakdown each team at the skill positions Bama has the edge in all deparments, on defense Bama's linebackers and secondary are way ahead of the gamecocks. The only immediate problems for the Tide are the O-line and the kicking game, also don't forget that all the defensive coaches at So Car are from So. Miss, they run pretty much the same defense so look for the big boys up front to be able to read the D and better protect Croyle in the passing game. Last weeks game against the Golden eagles was not as close as it appeared, they scored pne TD on a interception return on a screen play and another was set up by a horrible punt and a good return to put So. Miss at Bama's 19 yard line. After getting blasted at home last year by this bunch (with no Brodie Croyle) look for the Tide to be seeking revenge .

 

[muffinman]

Nice points Jdogg.
I couldn't agree more.

 

[NYReb]

Sometimes I wish you could edit things on this site. Anyway, I am not on Bama, I am on South Carolina.

Correct play:

5* South Carolina +2
It's simply a matter of looking at David Shula on one hand and Steve Spurrier on the other. In this matchup I'm taking Spurrier. This is one game where he can take his and beat yours, or he can take yours and beat his.

Adding:

5* Houston +13
You might have to buy a half point to get this price, but it could possibly be worth it. I guess I am trying to figure out why UTEP should be favored this much. Do they actually have that much better talent, or is it only Mike Price? If Mike Price were at Houston, would Houston be favored? I think this will be a very high scoring game, and the winner of the game could very well be the last team that scores. I don't see UTEP outclassing the Cougars here at all. Maybe I am missing something. If so, I will know better next time.

5* Teaser: Houston +19.5, over 54
Just a reminder that I am 6-2 so far in same-game teasers.

Winky is churning in his grave:scared2:

I could not find a clear cut side in tonight's Utah/TCU game, so I (obviously) passed. It seems that the spread of 3 is about right, and beyond that it's mostly a matter of how the ball bounces. Didn't want to get involved, and certainly didn't want to influence anyone else.

 

[NYReb]

7* Michigan St +7
I don't know anything about the Big 10, but I know a solid play when I see one. We get solid value in this line, just because they are Notre Dame.

7* Clemson +7
I like Clemson as a home dog in this spot. Miami hasn't done anything yet that makes me want to back them as a road favorite over an undefeated team.

5* Arkansas +31
When we look back at this spread at the end of the year, it might prove to be one of the most wildly off lines of the whole season. I'm keeping this as a 5* only out of my deep respect for USC's potential to cover it. It just doesn't seem likely.

 

[Highdaddy]

i love the ole miss and clemson plays