Game Prop Bets
All prop bets courtesy of Bovada
Team to score first in the game: Ohio State +140, Oregon -170
Let's look at this from a logical standpoint. Both teams have the same chance of scoring first in this game right now. That will change once the coin is flipped, and we know who gets the ball first, but right now it's 50/50. That is why you have to take Ohio State +140. It's the only logical move to make.
The first score of the game will be: Touchdown -350, Field goal or safety +275
If you're going to actually bet on this, and I don't think you should, you have to go field goal or safety +275. The value on betting on a touchdown just isn't there, plus you get the added benefit of rooting for a safety.
Will either team score three unanswered times in the game: Yes -325, No +250
I actually really like the No +250 here. Not only is there value in the bet, but these two teams are similar enough to one another to realistically envision a scenario in which neither team manages to score three times without the other one putting points on the board.
Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown: Yes +140, No -170
There are very good arguments to make for both sides of this bet. If you want to say there won't be, the value you're getting on your bet is in line with the actual odds of it happening, so it's not a bad bet. But what's the fun in betting against a return touchdown? There is none! You have to go Yes +140 here or else you're betting against your own entertainment!
The longest touchdown score in the game will be: Over/under 63.5 yards
Both of these teams are capable of scoring on big plays. Hell, Ohio State's entire passing attack seems to be built around 65-yard bombs unleashed by Cardale Jones, so the over does make a bit of sense here. But taking a deeper look you see that the Oregon defense has only allowed two plays of greater than 60 yards this season, let alone touchdowns (Ohio State's defense has given up six plays of 60 yards or more). So while both offenses are certainly capable of making the big play, the fact that Oregon's defense has been so strong at limiting them makes me lean toward the under 63.5 here since it feels like you're limiting yourself to Oregon's offense if you take the over.
The first turnover of the game will be: Fumble 6/5, Interception 2/3, No turnovers 11/2
Oregon has fewer turnovers this season than any other team with only 10, but Ohio State does cough the ball up, turning it over 22 times in 14 games. So I have a hard time believing there won't be a single turnover in this game, and I'm going to go with Fumble 6/5. My reasoning is that Oregon has only thrown thrown three interceptions this season, and of the 32 combined turnovers between these two, 18 of them have been fumbles.
Player Prop Bets
Cardale Jones passing yards: Over/under 260.5
Jones has started two games for the Buckeyes. He hasn't thrown more than 257 than either of them, so if you're going to take the over here, you're doing so under the premise that Ohio State is behind and the Buckeyes have to air the ball out a bit more than they want to. I don't think that's going to be the case, so I would go under 260.5.
Marcus Mariota passing yards: Over/Under 279.5
Mariota has averaged 294.4 passing yards per game this season, so if he has an average performance, the over seems safe here. But you have to look at the opponent, too. The Ohio State defense is allowing only 191.6 passing yards per game this season. Now, some of this can be attributed to playing in the Big Ten, where there aren't a whole lot of prolific passing offenses. There were only two quarterbacks who threw for more than 279 yards against Ohio State: Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel (352) and Michigan State's Connor Cook (358). Aside from those two, the highest total any other quarterback managed was Alabama's Blake Sims at 237. So, much like I did with Jones, I'm going under 279.5 here as well.
Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards: Over/Under 165.5
Elliott really has been the unsung hero of this Ohio State offense down the stretch. No matter who has been playing quarterback, it has been Elliott carrying a lot of the load for both. He averaged 116.6 yards per game on the season, but in Ohio State's past six games he's averaging 153.8 yards per game, and he just ran for 230 yards against Alabama. Oregon's run defense isn't bad, but it's not nearly as good as some other defenses Elliott has already torched. In fact, if you look a little closer at Oregon's performance against Florida State, you see that Seminoles running backs Dalvin Cook and Karlos Williams rushed for 183 yards on 27 carries (6.8 yards per). I expect Ohio State to feature Elliott quite a bit in this matchup and look to exploit the Oregon run defense, and I think they'll be successful doing so, which is why I would take Over 165.5.
Royce Freeman rushing yards: Over/Under 84.5
Freeman is a monster. The size and speed combination he has is remarkable, and then you remember he's a true freshman and your brain explodes. But I feel safe going with the under 84.5 here, and it doesn't have anything to do with Freeman's ability, or Ohio State's defense. It's more the Oregon game plan. As Jerry Hinnen pointed out on our podcast this week, last week against Florida State, Freeman had less carries than Thomas Tyner, who had missed Oregon's previous three games. In that time, Freeman was the featured back without question. But Tyner is healthy now, and odds are they'll be sharing carries again against Ohio State. So the under just feels like a smart play here.
All prop bets courtesy of Bovada
Team to score first in the game: Ohio State +140, Oregon -170
Let's look at this from a logical standpoint. Both teams have the same chance of scoring first in this game right now. That will change once the coin is flipped, and we know who gets the ball first, but right now it's 50/50. That is why you have to take Ohio State +140. It's the only logical move to make.
The first score of the game will be: Touchdown -350, Field goal or safety +275
If you're going to actually bet on this, and I don't think you should, you have to go field goal or safety +275. The value on betting on a touchdown just isn't there, plus you get the added benefit of rooting for a safety.
Will either team score three unanswered times in the game: Yes -325, No +250
I actually really like the No +250 here. Not only is there value in the bet, but these two teams are similar enough to one another to realistically envision a scenario in which neither team manages to score three times without the other one putting points on the board.
Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown: Yes +140, No -170
There are very good arguments to make for both sides of this bet. If you want to say there won't be, the value you're getting on your bet is in line with the actual odds of it happening, so it's not a bad bet. But what's the fun in betting against a return touchdown? There is none! You have to go Yes +140 here or else you're betting against your own entertainment!
The longest touchdown score in the game will be: Over/under 63.5 yards
Both of these teams are capable of scoring on big plays. Hell, Ohio State's entire passing attack seems to be built around 65-yard bombs unleashed by Cardale Jones, so the over does make a bit of sense here. But taking a deeper look you see that the Oregon defense has only allowed two plays of greater than 60 yards this season, let alone touchdowns (Ohio State's defense has given up six plays of 60 yards or more). So while both offenses are certainly capable of making the big play, the fact that Oregon's defense has been so strong at limiting them makes me lean toward the under 63.5 here since it feels like you're limiting yourself to Oregon's offense if you take the over.
The first turnover of the game will be: Fumble 6/5, Interception 2/3, No turnovers 11/2
Oregon has fewer turnovers this season than any other team with only 10, but Ohio State does cough the ball up, turning it over 22 times in 14 games. So I have a hard time believing there won't be a single turnover in this game, and I'm going to go with Fumble 6/5. My reasoning is that Oregon has only thrown thrown three interceptions this season, and of the 32 combined turnovers between these two, 18 of them have been fumbles.
Player Prop Bets
Cardale Jones passing yards: Over/under 260.5
Jones has started two games for the Buckeyes. He hasn't thrown more than 257 than either of them, so if you're going to take the over here, you're doing so under the premise that Ohio State is behind and the Buckeyes have to air the ball out a bit more than they want to. I don't think that's going to be the case, so I would go under 260.5.
Marcus Mariota passing yards: Over/Under 279.5
Mariota has averaged 294.4 passing yards per game this season, so if he has an average performance, the over seems safe here. But you have to look at the opponent, too. The Ohio State defense is allowing only 191.6 passing yards per game this season. Now, some of this can be attributed to playing in the Big Ten, where there aren't a whole lot of prolific passing offenses. There were only two quarterbacks who threw for more than 279 yards against Ohio State: Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel (352) and Michigan State's Connor Cook (358). Aside from those two, the highest total any other quarterback managed was Alabama's Blake Sims at 237. So, much like I did with Jones, I'm going under 279.5 here as well.
Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards: Over/Under 165.5
Elliott really has been the unsung hero of this Ohio State offense down the stretch. No matter who has been playing quarterback, it has been Elliott carrying a lot of the load for both. He averaged 116.6 yards per game on the season, but in Ohio State's past six games he's averaging 153.8 yards per game, and he just ran for 230 yards against Alabama. Oregon's run defense isn't bad, but it's not nearly as good as some other defenses Elliott has already torched. In fact, if you look a little closer at Oregon's performance against Florida State, you see that Seminoles running backs Dalvin Cook and Karlos Williams rushed for 183 yards on 27 carries (6.8 yards per). I expect Ohio State to feature Elliott quite a bit in this matchup and look to exploit the Oregon run defense, and I think they'll be successful doing so, which is why I would take Over 165.5.
Royce Freeman rushing yards: Over/Under 84.5
Freeman is a monster. The size and speed combination he has is remarkable, and then you remember he's a true freshman and your brain explodes. But I feel safe going with the under 84.5 here, and it doesn't have anything to do with Freeman's ability, or Ohio State's defense. It's more the Oregon game plan. As Jerry Hinnen pointed out on our podcast this week, last week against Florida State, Freeman had less carries than Thomas Tyner, who had missed Oregon's previous three games. In that time, Freeman was the featured back without question. But Tyner is healthy now, and odds are they'll be sharing carries again against Ohio State. So the under just feels like a smart play here.
