College Football News and Notes
College Football is here. This past weekend the Greek posted their
opening numbers and soon after CRIS and Pinnacle followed
suit. This summer both the Hilton and the Golden Nugget posted
lines on several marquee college football games throughout the
season. The offshore shops could have potentially saved them-
selves some exposure as the market collectively tipped its hand
on a couple of the games.
One such game was the traditional non-conference rival between
Illinois and Missouri. In Vegas this game had opened in early July
with Illinois -2.5. In a matter of minutes it was sitting Illinois -5.5.
Yet both CRIS and the Greek opened this line at Illinois -3. Now
sitting at -6 this line move was telegraphed a month ago. Perhaps
they don’t care about a couple of dimes here and there but clear-
ly this limited market had announced the likely position of this
game. With Missouri hardly established as a “reloading” program,
the fact that they break in a new quarterback and return just nine
starters suggests a potentially significant decline. Additionally Il-
linois seems poised to bounce back from a disappointing 2008
campaign.
There were several huge line moves and clearly there were some
extremely juicy opportunities for those that were ready. Notre
Dame opened as a 6.5-point favorite but moved as high as -14.5
before settling in just under two touchdowns. Stanford also was
shaded a touchdown too high at -22.
In most instances the sharp money did not wait for the other off-
shores to follow the Greek’s numbers. Opting instead for the sure
bet rather than wait for a bigger opportunity with an expanded
market. There were a couple exceptions however as Texas A&M
got steamed after CRIS had also opened up. Both shops opened
the line a full touchdown lower than it’s current number.
There was significantly less movement in the totals market as
the smaller limits made it less likely for sharp money to fire early.
The BYU/Oklahoma total was the most notable exception as it
opened 75 and was hit toward the under immediately. It now sits
at 68, a full touchdown lower.
There are several lines in both the side and totals market that
have not been fully hit. There is some leakage for sure, but I sus-
pect we will see even more significant movement on the MTSU/
Clemson total, the North Texas side and on UTEP.
Based on the lines and the market moves Baylor, Illinois, Notre
Dame and UAB are regarded highly in the marketplace. It is wor-
thy to note that those teams return their quarterback along with
eight or more starters on offense. This has been a common theme
in early market moves going back to the mid-to-late 90’s when
College Football is here. This past weekend the Greek posted their
opening numbers and soon after CRIS and Pinnacle followed
suit. This summer both the Hilton and the Golden Nugget posted
lines on several marquee college football games throughout the
season. The offshore shops could have potentially saved them-
selves some exposure as the market collectively tipped its hand
on a couple of the games.
One such game was the traditional non-conference rival between
Illinois and Missouri. In Vegas this game had opened in early July
with Illinois -2.5. In a matter of minutes it was sitting Illinois -5.5.
Yet both CRIS and the Greek opened this line at Illinois -3. Now
sitting at -6 this line move was telegraphed a month ago. Perhaps
they don’t care about a couple of dimes here and there but clear-
ly this limited market had announced the likely position of this
game. With Missouri hardly established as a “reloading” program,
the fact that they break in a new quarterback and return just nine
starters suggests a potentially significant decline. Additionally Il-
linois seems poised to bounce back from a disappointing 2008
campaign.
There were several huge line moves and clearly there were some
extremely juicy opportunities for those that were ready. Notre
Dame opened as a 6.5-point favorite but moved as high as -14.5
before settling in just under two touchdowns. Stanford also was
shaded a touchdown too high at -22.
In most instances the sharp money did not wait for the other off-
shores to follow the Greek’s numbers. Opting instead for the sure
bet rather than wait for a bigger opportunity with an expanded
market. There were a couple exceptions however as Texas A&M
got steamed after CRIS had also opened up. Both shops opened
the line a full touchdown lower than it’s current number.
There was significantly less movement in the totals market as
the smaller limits made it less likely for sharp money to fire early.
The BYU/Oklahoma total was the most notable exception as it
opened 75 and was hit toward the under immediately. It now sits
at 68, a full touchdown lower.
There are several lines in both the side and totals market that
have not been fully hit. There is some leakage for sure, but I sus-
pect we will see even more significant movement on the MTSU/
Clemson total, the North Texas side and on UTEP.
Based on the lines and the market moves Baylor, Illinois, Notre
Dame and UAB are regarded highly in the marketplace. It is wor-
thy to note that those teams return their quarterback along with
eight or more starters on offense. This has been a common theme
in early market moves going back to the mid-to-late 90’s when
