College Football is tough to cap!

[ericdixon]

I may just start flipping a coin. Saturday has become a nightmare, any tips from those whom have a clue with the college foots.

I'll try one more weekend and if I have another 4-6 Saturday I will stop playing the college foots!

Texas Tech +7 L
UF -3 L
UCLA +19 1/2 L
UGA 2nd H -1 L
Toledo 1st H +6 L
ASU +8 L

OK, see this helps, too many road teams, maybe, I don't know!

Oregon +4 1st H W
Oregon +8 1/2 W
BC +3 1/2, 2nd H W
Navy -13 1/2 W

 

[Buzzsaw]

I though there was thin pickings on Saturday's card. Loved the Stanford over 46 number but was life & Death getting that in the win column.

Some of these non-conf games are really just a coin flip on who is ready and who is looking ahead.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Sorry eric17.

Football is tough for most all. If you are better at other sports, best to limit the football and bank on other sports. This is why so many books keep low profile until foots. They know this to be true.

 

[TTinCO]

Eric, college foots has always been "my game", but I've been surviving off of the NFL this year.

I've backed way off on my college plays....lot of surprises this year.

 

[Railbird]

Florida is poorly coached, Andrew Walter isnt very good, ucla has a weak offensive line and bad wrs, texas tech has no defense. Got to look into things if you are going to play for U.S. dollars, and not follow forum posters or steam, because most of them dont know the game.

 

[DarrylParsons]

eric17,

I think you need to look at a longer timeframe. If you can cap with a 52% long term win rate, then you should be a lifelong winner even without much line shopping.

But even after 1000 plays you have a standard deviation of about 16 wins which means that if you have more than 1.25 standard deviations of bad luck, you will have a losing record despite being a 52% capper.

You really need to have made about 2000 plays before you can make any meaningful conclusion about how good a capper you are. And if you do really badly, then you will have discovered the goose the lays the golden egg...all you have to do is do the opposite of everything you've done before.

Stretch that timeline and don't get discouraged. You could be just having a bad streak. These can be really long sometimes.

 

[jjgold]

football is the hardest that is why you can bet 50 dimes a game if you want!!!!

You cannot beat them in the long run, concentrate more on the off sports to have a chance.

 

[ericdixon]

Thanks guys!

Baseball has always been my best sport but I can't keep my hands off the foots, to enticing to pass, but I do cut back on the amount I bet.
I do OK in the NFL but college remains a mystery, perhaps I will scale the units on college back even further.

 

[Mr.Jones]

eric, if I can stay close to even until October, I consider myself doing well. After that the college game gets more predictable and the numbers more meaningful and I do OK.

Just hang in there another week or two.

 

[Railbird]

ITs a myth nfl is tough to beat, just have to be double sharp, reason the limits are large is for the square whales.

 

[jjgold]

Bet the opposite of your strong plays and you will be fine.

 

[Fishhead]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Railbird:
ITs a myth nfl is tough to beat, just have to be double sharp, reason the limits are large is for the square whales.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

100% correct!

 

[jjgold]

Fishhead you buried me on Saturday with Arizona State and like a jerkoff I give the game to 15 guys from my local hometown trying to be a big shot and now they want to kill me.

 

[jwunderdog]

College football can be tough to capp, but if you do your homework you can gain a bigger edge then you can with the NFL, because the #s in the NFL are much sharper. I think too many people look at the final score of College games and that is it. If you are serious about capping NCAA, look inside the #s. How did they score?TO(probably the most important # to look at in football and can make the final # look a lot more loppsided then the game really was or vice-versa.).Take the TO out and come up with a final score, would be ther very first thing I would do. GL though, books are in business to beat you and they have been doing it a lot longer then any of us.