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Sep 21, 2004
Last week's record was 2-1-1 +1.80%, which makes the record 20-13-1 +9.10% over the last six weeks. The overall record is still below .500, thanks to a horrible week nine, but the thinking has been good the past six weeks. Hopefully that will continue this week.

Home team in caps.

Notre Dame -2 SYRACUSE

I'll take another shot with ND again this week. I think the match-up is a little more difficult for them this week because the Syracuse offense is much better than the Stanford offense. Syracuse is still below average on offense, but Stanford was pathetic on offense and didn't stand a chance to move the ball against a good ND defense. The ND numbers are really underrated because they have played the toughest schedule in college football. Syracuse has played three good defensive teams this year and averaged scoring 19 points, thanks in part to scoring 39 against Boston College but only seven against Virginia Tech and ten against Miami-Fl. But, in this game, ND sports the better offense and better defense and they have played a much tougher schedule. ND qualifies in the same contrary situation that they qualified in last week, which is now 133-88-5. That strategy plays on teams who have not covered the spread much this year, which provides these teams with late season value. My final numbers support ND by one in this game before accounting for the situation they qualify in. Fair value with the better team, looking to win their fourth straight and finish at .500. NOTRE DAME 24 SYRACUSE 17

Boise State -10 HAWAII 71

I'm not going to make a case that Hawaii is the better team here. And they don't have to be, when getting 10 points. Both offenses are pretty close, with Boise State averaging 6.4 yppl against 5.7 yppl and Hawaii averaging 6.3 yppl against 5.7 yppl. Hawaii has also played a tougher schedule. On defense, it's a different story as Boise has allowed just 4.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl and Hawaii has been just average, allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl. June Jones is now 11-4 as a home dog with Hawaii, including being 11-1 with a winning percentage of .273 or greater. So, with any kind of team at all, he has succeeded as a home dog. And that includes being 6-0 when the opposing team's win percentage is at least .636 or better. He's 8-0 as a home dog if his team was at home their last game. And his team is 3-0 as a home dog seeking revenge. All three of those revenge games came after losing by at least 17 points the previous year. Boise qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 38-15-0 play against and they qualify in a letdown situation, which is 44-19-1 play against and another late season play against situation, which is a 43-17-3 situation. My final numbers suggest a 12 point Boise win here but that's before I account for the situations that play against Boise. I also like the under in this game. Asking two teams to score 71 points in a game is an awful lot of points. Boise has run up their numbers against some very bad teams this year. Boise has faced four better than average defensive teams this year and averaged 33 points in those games. Hawaii is just average so I suspect Boise will get about 35 points in this game. On the other side of the ball, Boise hasn't allowed more than 26 points in any game but one. They have only faced one good offensive team like Hawaii, and that was L. Tech and they allowed 37 points in that game. The only other decent offensive teams they have faced are Wyoming and Oregon State. They allowed an average of 27 points to all three of those teams and an average of almost 32 points to Oregon State and L. Tech, who they played on the road. My final numbers suggest closer to around 62 points being scored in this game and about 60-65 points if I use specific match-ups, which resemble both of these two teams. I just think this is a lot of points to be laying and it's a lot of points to try and score to go over the total. Both teams will pass the ball enough and turnovers are a possibility because of that, although Boise doesn't do that often. BOISE STATE 35 HAWAII 27


I like this game to go under the total. Both team's defenses are outstanding, with LSU allowing just 4.3 yppl against 5.4 yppl and Georgia allowing just 4.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl. The LSU offense is a little better than Georgia but neither offense is a superior offense. These two combined for only 27 points in the first game and LSU only totaled 26 points against Florida, only a total of 38 points against Auburn, only 30 points total against Alabama. They did put up a lot of points (79 total) last week against Arkansas, but that hasn't been the norm against better than average defenses this year. And they haven't allowed more than 19 points in any one game, except for last week's game, where they gave up 17 early and one late score after the game was decided. Georgia only totaled 29 points against Florida and 33 points against Auburn. I just think it's two great defenses, one which hadn't allowed more than 19 points before last week and Georgia, which hasn't allowed more than 23 points all year and no more than 17 if you exclude that 23 point game. If neither team allows more than their 19 and 17 points, this game won't go over the total. LSU 17 GEORGIA 14


Same story in this game as the previous game. Two outstanding defenses playing each other. Both offenses are very good as well and both teams can throw the ball very well, which could make this play a little trickier, but I still like the under in this game. It's hard to tell just how well Oklahoma will do because they have dominated opponents so bad this year that I'm not sure how true their numbers really are. I will just say my final point prediction is around 49 points, which gives us some value to the under and, knowing we have two solid defenses, I'll trust they can keep this game somewhat low scoring. OKLAHOMA 30 KANSAS STATE 19

YTD 39-41-3 -17.50%

2% HAWAII +10



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