COLLEGE 11/8

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SixthSense

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Sep 21, 2004
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Will be busy this weekend and probably not able to respond until Sunday night. Good luck.

MINNESOTA -8.5 Wisconsin 56

I like both, the Badgers and the over in this game. Wisky qualifies in one of the best situations that I have used this year and it's a bounce back situation based on their loss against Northwestern in their last game. That situation played on Kansas State over Texas (W) five weeks ago, played Florida over LSU (W) four weeks ago, played Washington over Oregon State (W) three weeks ago, played Oregon State over Washington State (W) two weeks ago and played Utah over Air Force (W) last week. You get the picture. It is 5-0 this year and now 65-21-0 since 1988. Wisconsin also qualifies in another similar situation, which is 26-5 (3-0 TY) and they qualify in a rivalry situation of mine, which is 208-143-3 (4-2 TY). No question Minnesota can move the ball, as evidenced by their 400+ rushing effort against Michigan earlier this year. And, no question, they have the ability to pound teams at home. But, the fact remains, they have yet to beat a good team, with their best win coming over Penn State, who has lost five games in a row. They have lost the two games they have played against solid competition, Michigan and Michigan State, both at home, while Wisconsin has beaten Ohio State and lost by three on a last second field goal against Purdue. But being close is all right for Wisconsin in this game, because they are the team getting all the points. I realize they are without A. Davis but their other running backs are capable backs, in Booker Stanley and Dwayne Smith. They beat Ohio State without Davis and they do get Sorgi back in this game, which is huge for them. They lose the homerun threat with Davis but will still be able to pound the ball at Minnesota. I also like the over in this game for a few reasons. First, the last three games between these two have totaled 80, 73 and 61 points. Playing inside, in a controlled environment, will help the scoring. Minnesota has played two good teams this year and they allowed them to score 38 and 44 points. Using only the games against those two teams and Wisconsin's games against Ohio State and Purdue, my final numbers would forecast about a 38-34 Minnesota victory. That gives us plenty of value. Using all games this year, I still get about 56 points scored. Minnesota will get their share of points, having scored at least 35 points in every game but their game at Penn State, which means Wisconsin would have to only score 21 points to get to 56 points. They will get their 21 points and then some, having scored at least 20 points against Minnesota in each of the last eight games against them. Solid value to the over, Wisky in very solid situations, and playing after a bye, all aid Wisconsin in this one. Alvarez is now 17-4 ats when getting at least seven points, including 16-3 ats if it is not his teams first game, and 14-2 ats if not a bowl game or their first game. Lastly, since Alvarez came to Wisconsin, his team has lost to Minnesota by more than seven points only once in the eleven games they have played. That was the last time they came to Minneapolis but they were laying three points in that game. When you are getting 8.5 and maybe 10 come game time, it's much easier to back door the spread, if you need it. I don't think they'll need it. MINNESOTA 38 WISCONSIN 34

AUBURN -8 Mississippi

It's been a nice run for Mississippi but I think they will finally meet their match in this game. First, my numbers show Auburn winning this game by eight points, which is what the spread is. But Auburn qualifies in my best situation this year, which won with TCU on Wednesday night and is now 10-1 this year and 128-50-3. They also qualify in a 134-76-2 situation based on their dominating performance last week and a 56-32-2 situation, which plays against teams coming off of four straight home games, like Mississippi is. The match up in this game is also favorable. Mississippi has stopped the run this year, allowing just 3.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr but they are allowing 8.3 yps against 7.2 yps and Auburn can throw the ball when they want to, averaging 7.3 yps against 6.9 yps. Meanwhile, Auburn has defended both, the run and the pass extremely well this year, and that will make it tough for Mississippi to consistently move the ball. Mississippi is averaging 4.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 8.6 yps against 7.2 yps but Auburn is only allowing 3.0 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.6 yps against 7.4 yps. Bottom line is the Auburn defense is much better, their offense is just average but they have also played a tougher schedule. And the 128-50-3 situation, which is 10-1 this year, is an automatic play. AUBURN 31 MISSISSIPPI 14

BEST BETS

YTD 25-33-1 -26.70%

2% TCU -1.5 (WED. NIGHT)
2% TCU/LOUISVILLE OVER 50.5 (WED. NIGHT)

2% WISCONSIN +8.5
2% WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA OVER 56
2% AUBURN -8
 

Co-Captain

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Sep 20, 2004
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12,385
Aloha Six Sense,

Good Luck to you tomorrow. As always great writeup, thanks for sharing. Aloha CC
 

jgerson

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Sep 21, 2004
Messages
348
I really like your over in the Minn/Wisc game and the Auburn pick. You got yourself a couple of winners.
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