New member
Sep 21, 2004
Got a win on Thursday with S. Mississippi but couldn't get, what would have been a lucky cover, on Friday with Fresno.


What we have here is a little home/road dichotomy. Iowa has been great at home this year, although most of those games have come against inferior competition. Meanwhile, on the road, they have gone 1-3 SU, including 0-3 SU in their Big Ten road games. The other game was against Iowa State, who is terrible. In their other three road games against good teams, they lost by 10 at Michigan State (who Wisky pummeled last week at home), by 9 at Ohio State (in a game they probably out played OSU but lost because of a blocked punt recovered for a touchdown and a punt returned for a touchdown) and by 13 at Purdue. As mentioned Wisconsin pummeled Michigan State last week 56-21, beat Ohio State 17-10 and lost on the last play to Purdue, 23-26. Iowa, against three good defensive teams, on the road, has averaged a measly 11 points per game. That won't get it done against a Badger offense that has averaged 32 points at home against those same three teams or a median of 23 points against those same three teams (if you're worried about the 56 points inflating the average numbers). The Iowa defense has been very good this year, and they have allowed just 4.5 yppl against 5.4 yppl in all Big Ten games. They have been good, but not great defending the pass this year, allowing 6.8 yps against 7.2 yps but they'll get a stiff challenge from a very good Wisconsin passing game. The Badgers passing game has been solid, especially the last two weeks, where they have thrown for 385 yards last week and 305 yards the week before at Minnesota. The Badgers are now averaging 9.3 yps against 7.2 yps this season in the Big Ten and they'll move the ball here. They've already averaged 15.8 yps against Ohio State, at home this year and 10.9 against Purdue at home this year. Both of those teams pass defenses are superior to Iowa's. The Badgers defense has been just average in Big Ten games this year but the Iowa offense has been just average as well, and well below average on the road. Wisconsin qualifies in a revenge situation, which is 158-88-4 and 9-3 this year and a home momentum situation, which is 129-53-3 and 11-4 this year. My numbers, using just Big Ten games, make this line at two for Wisconsin but the situations take them well over the top. Big game for Wisky in their attempt to move up in the Big Ten standings and they get the win on Saturday. WISCONSIN 27 IOWA 13

AUBURN -8 Alabama

Good old fashion rivalry in this game between two somewhat even teams, when combined with the rivalry, make the points worth taking. Final numbers using just the SEC games make Auburn about a 9 to 10 point favorite, but what we have here is a slightly above average offense in Auburn (5.5 yppl against 5.2 yppl) versus an Alabama offense, which is just average (5.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl). On defense, the Auburn defense is better, but it hasn't been as dominating as some would make it out to be, allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl and the Alabama defense is slightly above average, allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl in SEC play. Alabama qualifies in my rivalry situation, which is 210-143-3 and 6-2 this year. Bama has lost by 10 and nine points each of the last two years and lost one other game over the last 10 years by eight points but everything else has been close or an Alabama win. In other words, the worse it has been for Alabama has been a 10 point loss and this game between two pretty even teams, along with the rivalry situation favoring Alabama, make the dog the play in this game. AUBURN 24 ALABAMA 20

Tulsa -7 SAN JOSE ST

Last week I used Memphis and I mentioned the numbers just didn't make sense, even though I didn't have any situations on them. The result was a 37-7 easy Memphis win. I hope this week's game is just as easy. I don't have any situations on Tulsa but I couldn't pass them up in this game with a fair line. Using just WAC games this year, my numbers support Tulsa to win this game by 19 and 21 points using two different methods. In WAC games, Tulsa is averaging 5.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr and they'll face a San Jose State rush defense, which is allowing 5.1 ypr against 4.5 ypr. San Jose has done one thing well this year in conference play and that is throw the ball, averaging 7.3 yps against 7.0 yps but they'll face a Tulsa pass defense, which is allowing just 5.9 yps against 7.6 yps. Tulsa lost to a very good Boise team, on the road, by seven and lost at home to Nevada by seven, but they turned the ball over five times in that game. They also lost their two opening games at Minnesota and Arkansas but nobody expected them to win those games. What stands out most here, is Tulsa has rushed for at least 204 yards in every game but two since they played Minnesota, including 212 yards at Arkansas. They failed at Boise, but Boise has a great rush defense and they failed against SMU. SJ State, on the other hand, has allowed at least 272 yards rushing in four of their seven WAC games. They didn't allow SMU (who is terrible offensively) and Hawaii, who is a pass oriented team. Somehow, they held Boise below 200 yards rushing. The numbers just don't line up here. Tulsa has proven they can win big on the road this year, having beat UTEP 56-28 earlier. TULSA 45 SAN JOSE STATE 24

Oregon State -3 OREGON

Oregon qualifies in my rivalry system, which is 210-143-3 and 6-2 this year while Oregon State qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 43-18-1 play against Oregon State here. Both teams offenses are below average in Pac Ten ball this year, with Oregon averaging just 5.2 yppl against 5.5 yppl and Oregon State averaging just 5.4 yppl against 5.6 yppl. Both defenses are also above average with Oregon allowing just 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl and Oregon State even better, at 3.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl. But the big problem I have with Oregon State is they have only played three road games this year. They lost SU at Fresno State, who is a nice team but not Oregon, 14-16, won at California 35-21 and lost at Washington State by six points, in a game filled with turnovers, that they might have been lucky to stayed that close. Oregon, meanwhile, has won every game at home, with the exception of their game against Washington State. They got destroyed in that game, 16-55 but also turned the ball over nine times. If they do that again on Saturday, the same thing will happen. I'm betting it doesn't happen. They've also beat Michigan at home. With offensive and defensive numbers, which look to be very close, I'll side with the situations and Oregon. OREGON 31 OREGON STATE 24


UAB qualifies in the same situation that I've been playing for about six weeks now. That situation finally lost for me last week, but I'll come right back with it. It's a bounce back situation, that has different criteria, but is based on the same premise. UAB qualifies in situations, which are 52-14-0 (5-1 TY), 66-23-0 (6-2 TY), 36-11-0 (3-0 TY) and 86-72-0 (7-2 TY). Again, they are all the same situation, just different versions of it. It's very hard for S. Florida to cover the spread laying this many points, when their offense in C-USA play this year is averaging just 4.0 yppl against teams allowing 5.3 yppl. The UAB defense has been above average, allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl. On offense for UAB, they are averaging 5.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl and they'll face a very good S. Florida defense, which is allowing 4.0 yppl against 4.9 yppl. I realize UAB has lost their quarterback but the S. Florida offense is so inept, that I'll take my chances here. Other than their game against Army, which could be considered Division II, S. Florida has failed to win any game this year by more than seven points. It's doubtful they'll do it here. UAB has given teams like TCU and Georgia a run for their money, losing to each by three points and my numbers make this game about a pick 'em here. UAB 21 S. FLORIDA 17

YTD 33-37-2 -19.50%

2% ALABAMA +8 (Must get at least 7)
2% TULSA -7
2% OREGON +3
2% UAB +6.5


"It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort o
Feb 2, 2002
Thanks for your GREAT plays! LT

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